Visualizing Cascading Risk Effects: Organizing Disruptive Forces and Factors Towards A Color-Assisted, Standardized Cascading Risk Effects Framework DOI
Trond Arne Undheim

SSRN Electronic Journal, Год журнала: 2024, Номер unknown

Опубликована: Янв. 1, 2024

Though risk visualization might be complex, classification, and consistency, color help. The article reviews the multidisciplinary literature on how systemic risks derive from a mix of economic, technological, socio political, ecological forces, proposes novel visual framework to deal with complexity. When scholars or practitioners attempt describe interplay multitude forces in specific case studies situations, each uses their own technical terms, which hinders communication about causes, effects, interactions, possible mitigation. Until now, there has been no commonly agreed that visualizes cascading individual factors. Methods:Mixed methods, including scenario planning, review, interview survey methodology, study research, are used propose Cascading Risk Effects Framework (CREF), inspired by periodic table elements is its "element", called factor, these factors can structured relationship other. This illustrates key relationships between six distinct but interrelated disruptive forces: sci-tech, governance, economics, social dynamics, impact, health adversity. Results:CREF displays 122 initial (to increase as research proceeds) provides standardized way factor: one-word factor name, two-letter symbol abbreviation, impact ratio, morbidity rate, cost, mitigation perception, likelihood rank. implications would see strikingly diverse causes phenomena compared contrasted across similar axes, given inherently nature. Future should deploy this new nomenclature, need carefully assess validity classification into (6) (122), begin properly structure causal co-causal well feedback loops them.

Язык: Английский

Dyadic risk mechanisms–a nomenclature for 36 proto-cascading effects determining humanity’s future DOI Creative Commons
Trond Arne Undheim

European Journal of Futures Research, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 12(1)

Опубликована: Март 26, 2024

Abstract Re-reading the risk literature, I sketch a novel nomenclature for 36 dyadic interactions that constitute prototypes of what eventually become cascading effects. This analysis demonstrates where effects originate and also hints at how they get their enormous power. Risk dyads derive from basic first-order across six disruptive forces: sci-tech, governance, economics, social dynamics, ecological impact, health adversity. give brief examples each provide short case description most prominent dyads. Very few these have an existing shorthand. The exception is NaTech, which denotes natural disasters being amplified by, or amplifying industrial risk, now more broadly, sci-tech-derived risk. By generalizing NaTech-style domains, aim to building blocks precise understanding contemporary mechanics. step often skipped by avid complexity scholars intent on first describing system-wide features. Yet, important prerequisite systemic complex depend triadic tetradic relationships. In reality, even if systemic, existential risks, as emerge in twenty-first century, myriad effects, cannot be fully understood simply looking whole system attempting analytically ignore its constituent parts claiming gain better overview.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

2
Visualizing Cascading Risk Effects: Organizing Disruptive Forces and Factors Towards A Color-Assisted, Standardized Cascading Risk Effects Framework DOI
Trond Arne Undheim

SSRN Electronic Journal, Год журнала: 2024, Номер unknown

Опубликована: Янв. 1, 2024

Though risk visualization might be complex, classification, and consistency, color help. The article reviews the multidisciplinary literature on how systemic risks derive from a mix of economic, technological, socio political, ecological forces, proposes novel visual framework to deal with complexity. When scholars or practitioners attempt describe interplay multitude forces in specific case studies situations, each uses their own technical terms, which hinders communication about causes, effects, interactions, possible mitigation. Until now, there has been no commonly agreed that visualizes cascading individual factors. Methods:Mixed methods, including scenario planning, review, interview survey methodology, study research, are used propose Cascading Risk Effects Framework (CREF), inspired by periodic table elements is its "element", called factor, these factors can structured relationship other. This illustrates key relationships between six distinct but interrelated disruptive forces: sci-tech, governance, economics, social dynamics, impact, health adversity. Results:CREF displays 122 initial (to increase as research proceeds) provides standardized way factor: one-word factor name, two-letter symbol abbreviation, impact ratio, morbidity rate, cost, mitigation perception, likelihood rank. implications would see strikingly diverse causes phenomena compared contrasted across similar axes, given inherently nature. Future should deploy this new nomenclature, need carefully assess validity classification into (6) (122), begin properly structure causal co-causal well feedback loops them.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

0