Extreme Fire Spread Events Burn More Severely and Homogenize Postfire Landscapes in the Southwestern United States
Global Change Biology,
Год журнала:
2025,
Номер
31(2)
Опубликована: Фев. 1, 2025
ABSTRACT
Extreme
fire
spread
events
rapidly
burn
large
areas
with
disproportionate
impacts
on
people
and
ecosystems.
Such
are
associated
warmer
drier
seasons
expected
to
increase
in
the
future.
Our
understanding
of
landscape
outcomes
extreme
is
limited,
particularly
regarding
whether
they
more
severely
or
produce
spatial
patterns
less
conducive
ecosystem
recovery.
To
assess
relationships
between
rates
severity
patterns,
we
used
satellite
detections
create
day‐of‐burning
maps
for
623
fires
comprising
4267
single‐day
within
forested
ecoregions
southwestern
United
States.
We
related
satellite‐measured
a
suite
high‐severity
patch
metrics
daily
area
burned.
(defined
here
as
burning
>
4900
ha/day)
exhibited
higher
mean
severity,
greater
proportion
burned
severely,
increased
like
adjacencies
pixels.
Furthermore,
increasing
also
resulted
distances
patches
live
tree
seed
sources.
High‐severity
size
total
core
were
substantially
containing
one
than
without
an
event.
Larger
homogenous
produced
during
can
limit
regeneration
set
stage
protracted
forest
conversion.
These
be
magnified
under
future
climate
scenarios,
accelerating
fire‐driven
loss
long‐term
ecological
change.
Язык: Английский
Fire, Fuel, and Climate Interactions in Temperate Climates
AGU Advances,
Год журнала:
2025,
Номер
6(2)
Опубликована: Март 5, 2025
Abstract
Temperate
regions
around
the
world
are
experiencing
longer
fire
weather
seasons,
yet
trends
in
burned
area
have
been
inconsistent
between
regions.
Reasons
for
differences
patterns
can
be
difficult
to
determine
due
variable
vegetation
types,
land
use
patterns,
fuel
conditions,
and
human
influences
on
ignition
suppression.
This
study
compares
areas
climate
conditions
three
temperate
regions:
desert,
shrub,
forest
ecoregions
of
western
North
America,
west‐central
Europe,
southwestern
South
America.
In
each
region
mean
annual
aridity
index
(AI,
precipitation
over
potential
evapotranspiration)
spans
arid
humid
climates.
We
examined
how
fraction
from
2001
2021
varied
with
AI,
aboveground
biomass,
cover
type
distributions.
All
had
low
fractions
driest
zones
(AI
<
0.5),
a
sign
limitation
area.
Fraction
increased
biomass
these
dry
zones.
peaked
at
intermediate
AI
(0.7–1.5)
all
declined
again
wettest
>
1.5),
Of
regions,
America
highest
area,
burned,
sizes.
Fragmentation
patches
by
high
Andes
Mountains
intensive
changes
Europe
likely
limited
risk
future
wildfires,
particularly
where
is
currently
limited.
Язык: Английский
Present and future interannual variability in wildfire occurrence: a large ensemble application to the United States
Frontiers in Forests and Global Change,
Год журнала:
2025,
Номер
8
Опубликована: Апрель 16, 2025
Realistic
projections
of
future
wildfires
need
to
account
for
both
the
stochastic
nature
climate
and
randomness
individual
fire
events.
Here
we
adopt
a
probabilistic
approach
predict
current
probabilities
using
large
ensemble
1,600
modelled
years
representing
different
realisations
during
modern
reference
period
(2000–2009)
characterised
by
an
additional
2°C
global
warming.
This
allows
us
characterise
distribution
contiguous
United
States,
including
extreme
when
number
fires
or
length
season
exceeded
those
seen
in
short
observational
record.
We
show
that
spread
is
higher
areas
with
high
mean
fires,
but
there
variation
this
relationship
regions
proportionally
variability
Great
Plains
southwestern
States.
The
principal
drivers
simulated
are
related
either
interannual
fuel
production
atmospheric
moisture
controls
on
drying,
distinct
geographic
patterns
which
each
these
dominant
control.
also
shows
considerable
length,
such
as
States
being
vulnerable
very
long
seasons
years.
increases
warming,
even
more
across
three
quarters
Warming
has
strong
effect
likelihood
less
fire-prone
northern
experience
It
amplifying
annual
occurrence
already
western
area
availability
control
substantially
These
analyses
demonstrate
importance
taking
stochasticity
characterising
wildfire
regimes,
utility
ensembles
making
under
change.
Язык: Английский
Wildfire Mitigation and Evaluation of Firebreaks Through FlamMap Simulations in High-Susceptibility Areas of the Metropolitan District of Quito
Fire,
Год журнала:
2025,
Номер
8(5), С. 189 - 189
Опубликована: Май 8, 2025
Wildfires
represent
a
growing
concern
worldwide,
and
their
frequency
has
increased
due
to
climate
change
human
activities,
posing
risks
biodiversity
safety.
In
the
Metropolitan
District
of
Quito
(DMQ),
combination
flammable
vegetation
steep
slopes
increases
wildfire
susceptibility.
Although
there
are
no
formally
designated
firebreaks
in
these
areas,
many
natural
artificial
elements,
such
as
roads,
water
bodies,
rocky
terrain,
can
effectively
function
if
properly
adapted.
This
study
aimed
evaluate
behavior
assess
effectiveness
both
adapted
existing
barriers
proposed
using
FlamMap
simulations.
Geospatial
meteorological
data
were
integrated
generate
landscape
weather
inputs
for
simulating
wildfires
nine
high-susceptibility
areas
within
DMQ.
Fuel
models
obtained
by
matching
national
land-cover
with
Scott
Burgan
fuel
models,
OpenStreetMap
used
identify
firebreak
locations.
The
simulation
results
show
that
adapting
potential
could
reduce
burned
area
an
average
42.6%,
addition
strategically
placed
further
it
up
70.2%.
findings
suggest
implementing
creation
maintenance
program
be
effective
tool
mitigation.
Язык: Английский
Pervasive fire danger continued under a negative emission scenario
Nature Communications,
Год журнала:
2024,
Номер
15(1)
Опубликована: Ноя. 19, 2024
Enhanced
fire-prone
weather
under
greenhouse
gas
warming
can
significantly
affect
local
and
global
carbon
budgets
from
increased
fire
occurrence,
influencing
carbon-climate
feedbacks.
However,
the
extent
to
which
changes
in
associated
emissions
be
mitigated
by
negative
remains
uncertain.
Here,
we
analyze
responses
CO2
removal
climate
model
experiments
estimate
their
potential
based
on
an
observational
relationship
between
fire-induced
emissions.
The
results
highlight
that
enhanced
danger
cannot
restored
instantaneously
reduction,
mainly
due
atmospheric
dryness
maintained
climatic
inertia.
exacerbated
is
projected
contribute
extra
68%
of
regions
hysteresis
levels.
These
findings
even
cooling
emissions,
activity
may
reinforce
fire-carbon-climate
feedback
loop
result
further
socio-economic
damage.
This
study
shows
risk
not
decrease
line
with
reductions.
world
Язык: Английский
A Method to Identify Wildfire Ignition Points and Propagation Durations Using Genetic Algorithms
Research Square (Research Square),
Год журнала:
2024,
Номер
unknown
Опубликована: Окт. 9, 2024
Abstract
A
critical
research
area
regarding
wildfire
modelling
that
is
often
overlooked
the
task
of
finding
where
a
started
and
how
long
burnt
for.
review
literature
revealed
there
are
no
automated
methods
for
detection
ignition
points
using
burn
scars.
This
paper
describes
novel
method
called
WSGA
(Wildfire
Source
Genetic
Algorithm)
to
find
propagation
time
wildfire,
given
environmental
condition
scar.
The
encodes
bitstring
corresponds
regions
described
by
polygons
within
simulating
program
IGS
(Irregular
Grid
Software).
In
bitstring,
bit
value
specifies
whether
polygon
contains
point
therefore
source
polygon.
also
generates
representing
simulation
duration.
Multiple
bitstrings
with
durations
generated.
uses
these
populate
genetic
algorithm.
algorithm
compares
created
wildfires
seeded
information
in
original
simulated
most
closely
resemble
scar
then
identified.
These
combined,
process
continues.
gradually
population
produce
which
more
To
evaluate
final
outputted
WSGA,
relative
distance
error
was
calculated
summing
Euclidian
distances
between
produced
diameter
Depending
on
scenario
had
range
[0,
1.25].
duration
difference
duration,
[0.0006,
0.49].
Язык: Английский
Seven continents. One sky
Frontiers in Climate,
Год журнала:
2024,
Номер
6
Опубликована: Окт. 4, 2024
This
paper
explores
the
global
impacts
of
climate
change
and
pollution
across
diverse
regions,
highlighting
unique
challenges
innovative
initiatives.
From
rising
temperatures
severe
droughts
in
Africa
Australia
to
melting
glaciers
Arctic
Asia,
each
continent
faces
significant
environmental
threats.
Despite
these
challenges,
countries
are
making
strides
renewable
energy,
conservation,
community-based
actions.
International
agreements
local
indigenous
practices
play
vital
roles
efforts.
The
concludes
with
a
call
for
continued
cooperation
action,
emphasizing
potential
sustainable
future
through
collective
innovation
resilience-building.
Through
this
comprehensive
analysis,
underscores
urgency
possibility
addressing
warming
healthier
planet.
Язык: Английский