Climate Change Impacts on Eastern Boundary Upwelling Systems

Annual Review of Marine Science, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 15(1), С. 303 - 328

Опубликована: Июль 18, 2022

The world's eastern boundary upwelling systems (EBUSs) contribute disproportionately to global ocean productivity and provide critical ecosystem services human society. impact of climate change on EBUSs the ecosystems they support is thus a subject considerable interest. Here, we review hypotheses climate-driven in physics, biogeochemistry, ecology EBUSs; describe observed changes over recent decades; present projected twenty-first century. Similarities historical among include trend toward intensification poleward regions, mitigatedwarming near-coastal regions where intensifies, enhanced water-column stratification shoaling mixed layer. However, there remains significant uncertainty how will evolve with change, particularly sometimes competing intensity, source-water chemistry, affect structure. We summarize commonalities differences conclude an assessment key remaining uncertainties questions. Future studies need address these questions better understand, project, adapt EBUSs.

Язык: Английский

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Marine heatwaves disrupt ecosystem structure and function via altered food webs and energy flux

Nature Communications, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 15(1)

Опубликована: Март 13, 2024

The prevalence and intensity of marine heatwaves is increasing globally, disrupting local environmental conditions. individual population-level impacts prolonged on species have recently been demonstrated, yet whole-ecosystem consequences remain unexplored. We leveraged time series abundance data 361 taxa, grouped into 86 functional groups, from six long-term surveys, diet information a new database, previous modeling efforts, to build two food web networks using an extension the popular Ecopath ecosystem framework, Ecotran. compare models parameterized before after onset recent evaluate cascading effects structure function in Northeast Pacific Ocean. While ecosystem-level contribution (prey) demand (predators) most groups changed following heatwaves, gelatinous taxa experienced largest transformations, underscored by arrival northward-expanding pyrosomes. show altered trophic relationships energy flux potentially profound for function, raise concerns populations threatened harvested species.

Язык: Английский

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Climate Change Influences via Species Distribution Shifts and Century‐Scale Warming in an End‐To‐End California Current Ecosystem Model

Global Change Biology, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 31(1)

Опубликована: Янв. 1, 2025

ABSTRACT Climate change can impact marine ecosystems through many biological and ecological processes. Ecosystem models are one tool that be used to simulate how the complex impacts of climate may manifest in a warming world. In this study, we an end‐to‐end Atlantis ecosystem model compare contrast effects climate‐driven species redistribution projected temperature from three separate on key commercial importance California Current Ecosystem. Adopting scenario analysis approach, measure differences biomass, abundance, weight at age pelagic demersal among six simulations for years 2013–2100 tracked implications those changes spatially defined fishing fleets. The varied their use forced distribution shifts, time‐varying projections ocean warming, or both. general, abundance biomass coastal like Pacific sardine ( Sardinops sagax ) northern anchovy Engraulis mordax were more sensitive change, while groups Dover sole Microstomus pacificus experienced smaller due counteracting spatial metabolic warming. Climate‐driven shifts resulting food web interactions influential than end‐of‐century patterns. Spatial fisheries catch did not always align with targeted species. This mismatch is likely into out areas emphasizes explicit understanding both dynamics. We illuminate important pathways which acts context end discussion potential management future directions research using models.

Язык: Английский

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Next-generation regional ocean projections for living marine resource management in a changing climate

ICES Journal of Marine Science, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 78(6), С. 1969 - 1987

Опубликована: Май 4, 2021

Abstract Efforts to manage living marine resources (LMRs) under climate change need projections of future ocean conditions, yet most global models (GCMs) poorly represent critical coastal habitats. GCM utility for LMR applications will increase with higher spatial resolution but obstacles including computational and data storage costs, obstinate regional biases, formulations prioritizing robustness over skill persist. Downscaling can help address limitations, significant improvements are needed robustly support science management. We synthesize past downscaling efforts suggest a protocol achieve this goal. The emphasizes LMR-driven design ensure delivery decision-relevant information. It prioritizes ensembles downscaled spanning the range futures durations long enough capture signals. This demands judicious refinement, pragmatic consideration LMR-essential features superseding theoretical investigation. Statistical complement dynamical approaches in building these ensembles. Inconsistent use bias correction indicates objective best practices. Application suggested should yield that, effective dissemination translation analytics, management change.

Язык: Английский

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Recommendations for quantifying and reducing uncertainty in climate projections of species distributions

Global Change Biology, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 28(22), С. 6586 - 6601

Опубликована: Авг. 5, 2022

Projecting the future distributions of commercially and ecologically important species has become a critical approach for ecosystem managers to strategically anticipate change, but large uncertainties in projections limit climate adaptation planning. Although distribution are primarily used understand scope potential change-rather than accurately predict specific outcomes-it is nonetheless essential where why can give implausible results identify which processes contribute uncertainty. Here, we use series simulated distributions, an ensemble 252 models, three regional ocean projections, isolate influences uncertainty from earth system model spread ecological modeling. The simulations encompass marine with different functional traits preferences more broadly address resource manager fishery stakeholder needs, provide true state evaluate projections. We present our relative degree environmental extrapolation historical conditions, helps facilitate interpretation by modelers working diverse systems. found associated models exceed generated diverging (up 70% total 2100), that this result was consistent across traits. Species increased through time related extrapolated into novel conditions moderated how well captured underlying dynamics driving distributions. predictive power remained relatively high first 30 years alignment period stakeholders make strategic decisions based on information. By understanding sources uncertainty, they change at forecast horizons, recommendations projecting under global change.

Язык: Английский

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Demystifying global climate models for use in the life sciences

Trends in Ecology & Evolution, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 38(9), С. 843 - 858

Опубликована: Май 11, 2023

Язык: Английский

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Uncertain future of sustainable fisheries environment in eastern boundary upwelling zones under climate change

Communications Earth & Environment, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 4(1)

Опубликована: Янв. 23, 2023

Abstract Upwelling along ocean eastern boundaries is expected to intensify due coastal wind strengthening driven by increasing land-sea contrast according the Bakun hypothesis. Here, latest high-resolution climate simulations that exhibit drastic improvements of upwelling processes reveal far more complex future changes. The Southern Hemisphere systems show a in winds with rapid warming, whereas Northern decrease comparable warming trend. mechanism cannot explain these Heat budget analysis indicates temperature change region not simply controlled vertical Ekman upwelling, but also influenced horizontal heat advection strong near-coast stress curl neglected hypothesis and poorly represented low-resolution models Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. spatial variation changes, which missing simulations.

Язык: Английский

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Integrating climate adaptation and transboundary management: Guidelines for designing climate-smart marine protected areas

One Earth, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 6(11), С. 1523 - 1541

Опубликована: Окт. 26, 2023

Climate change poses an urgent threat to biodiversity that demands societal responses. The magnitude of this challenge is reflected in recent international commitments protect 30% the planet by 2030 while adapting climate change. However, because global, interventions must transcend political boundaries. Here, using California Bight as a case study, we provide 21 biophysical guidelines for designing climate-smart transboundary marine protected area (MPA) networks and conduct analyses inform their application. We found future climates heatwaves could decrease ecological connectivity 50% hinder recovery vulnerable species MPAs. To buffer impacts change, MPA coverage should be expanded, focusing on protecting critical nodes network refugia, where might less severe. For shared ecoregions, these actions require coordination. Our work provides first comprehensive framework integrating resilience MPAs which will support other nations' aspirations.

Язык: Английский

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Statistically downscaled CMIP6 ocean variables for European waters

Scientific Reports, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 14(1)

Опубликована: Янв. 12, 2024

Climate change impact studies need climate projections for different scenarios and at scales relevant to planning management, preferably a variety of models realizations capture the uncertainty in these models. To address current gaps, we statistically downscaled (SD) 3-7 CMIP6 five key indicators marine habitat conditions: temperature, salinity, pH, oxygen, chlorophyll across European waters three SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5. Results provide ensemble averages estimates that can serve as input data projecting potential success range Nature-based Solutions, including restoration habitat-forming species such seagrass Mediterranean kelp coastal areas Portugal Norway. Evaluation with observations from four regions (North Sea, Baltic Bay Biscay, Sea) indicates SD realistically climatological conditions historical period 1993-2020. Model skill (Liu-mean efficiency, Pearson correlation) clearly improves both surface temperature oxygen all respect original ESMs demonstrating higher compared oxygen. Warming is evident large differences among fully emerge background uncertainties related internal variability model second half century. Scenario-specific acidification significantly leading distinct trajectories pH starting before mid-century (in some cases present day). Deoxygenation also domains, but signal was weaker other two when variability, greenhouse gas less distinct. The substantial regional local heterogeneity abiotic underscores highly spatially resolved physical biogeochemical understand how may ecosystems.

Язык: Английский

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An Integrated Global‐To‐Regional Scale Workflow for Simulating Climate Change Impacts on Marine Ecosystems

Earth s Future, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 13(2)

Опубликована: Фев. 1, 2025

Abstract As the urgency to evaluate impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems increases, there is a need develop robust projections and improve uptake ecosystem model outputs in policy planning. Standardizing input output data crucial step evaluating communicating results, but can be challenging when using models with diverse structures, assumptions, that address region‐specific issues. We developed an implementation framework workflow standardize fishing forcings used by regional contributing Fisheries Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (FishMIP) facilitate comparative analyses across wide range regions, line FishMIP 3a protocol. applied our three case study areas‐models: Baltic Sea Mizer, Hawai'i‐based Longline fisheries therMizer, southern Benguela Atlantis models. then selected most steps illustrated their different types regions. Our adaptable models, from non‐spatially explicit spatially fully‐depth resolved include one or several fleets. This will development ensembles enhance future research applications, evaluation benchmarking, global‐to‐regional comparisons.

Язык: Английский

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