Multi-year average water vapor characteristics and potential sources and transport pathways of intense water vapor during extreme precipitation events in the Ili River Valley, China

Journal of Hydrology Regional Studies, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 58, С. 102278 - 102278

Опубликована: Март 8, 2025

Язык: Английский

An Atmospheric Instability Perturbation Approach for Ensemble Forecasts and Its Application in Heavy Rain Cases

Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 17(3)

Опубликована: Март 1, 2025

Abstract An ensemble perturbation approach focusing on Atmospheric Instability Perturbation was proposed. This perturbs diagnostics quantifying atmospheric instability and calculates corresponding model state perturbations through a data assimilation‐like procedure, with flexibility enhanced the numerical estimation of derivatives diagnostic equations. The amplitude moist potential vorticity (MPV) measuring convective (MPV1) baroclinic (MPV2) is investigated. Flow‐dependent characteristics MPV are observed single‐point tests, MPV2 enhancing temperature gradient in area. For 10 heavy rain cases Eastern China during summer 2019, using combination positive negative MPV1 outperforms downscaled Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) perturbations. superiority attributed to their ability capture more precipitation events environment, which conducive both convection initialization intensity. However, contribute less probability forecast skill reliability, because false alarms produced. experimental results also indicate necessity cycle forecasting, as may underestimate after initial condition impact diminishes. Considering that all types adjust instability, most adjustments being secondary outcomes, highlight effectiveness directly perturbing forecasting.

Язык: Английский

Weather pattern classification of regional extreme precipitation events and their formation mechanisms in the Yangtze-Huai Region, China

Climate Dynamics, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 63(1)

Опубликована: Дек. 16, 2024

Язык: Английский