Drought Forecasting: Application of Ensemble and Advanced Machine Learning Approaches DOI Creative Commons
Geetabai S. Hukkeri, Sujay Raghavendra Naganna,

P. Dayananda

и другие.

IEEE Access, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 11, С. 141375 - 141393

Опубликована: Янв. 1, 2023

Depending on the severity and spatial-temporal variability, droughts can have a wide range of impacts such as crop failure, water shortages, food insecurity. Accurate timely forecasting is necessary to mitigate hazards extreme weather events, droughts, brought by climate change. A district like Chitradurga in India, which typically receives around 450-600mm annual rainfall, will require advanced drought mitigation strategies plans before onset drought. This research focuses 1-step lead time meteorological episodes making use 6-month Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI-6) indicator. The fine resolution rainfall data (0.25° × 0.25°) obtained from Indian Meteorological Department was used derive SPI 23 grid stations. SPI-6 series forecast considering antecedent model input. Mutual Information determine most relevant input features for forecasting. standard Artificial Neural Network, an machine learning framework - Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines, ensemble learning-based CatBoost Gradient Tree Boosting paradigms were employed episodes. Error efficiency metrics performance evaluation simulated models. multivariate adaptive regression splines gradient tree boosting forecasts had slightly higher accuracy lower error rates than artificial neural network model, suggests that they may be more reliable root mean square normalized Nash-Sutcliffe ranges (during test phase) 0.37–0.54 0.78–0.87, respectively. thematic maps created using spatial interpolation all stations also confirmed whole experienced April 2019.

Язык: Английский

Multiple asynchronous drought facets drive Mediterranean natural and cultivated ecosystems DOI Creative Commons
Georgie Elias, Georgia Majdalani, Delphine Renard

и другие.

The Science of The Total Environment, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 969, С. 178990 - 178990

Опубликована: Март 1, 2025

Drought is a keystone constraint with far-reaching implications for agro-environmental threats. Yet, drought indices are mostly hydro-meteorological or agricultural, obscuring evidence of the key role agro-ecosystem diversity plays in buffering consequences regional climatic variability. We then question how contrasted facets could differentially drive functioning agro-ecosystems, and whether interannual asynchrony these might prevent multi-crisis events. Here, we examine multifaceted characterization yearly events relates to sectors test synchronize over Lebanon, Middle Eastern drought-prone country grappling socio-economic political crises. Using parsimonious multiple linear regression (MLR) models, captured combined functional roles six (duration, onset, offset, drying rate, peak day, mean intensity episodic rainfall pulses) on major sectors, including winter wheat yield, tree-ring radial growth, area burned by wildfires. Delayed offset faster spring soil moisture rates appeared more closely associated increased areas (R2 = 0.25), while onset autumn pulses from previous year were negatively linked yield 0.12), tree growth switched control duration increasing altitude 0.33). The observed response climate variability 1960-2020 period appears buffer occurrence concomitant extremes, pattern that relate their controlling facets. By demonstrating each facet, conclude efficiency compound functionally-sound index synchronous crisis warning.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

0
Effects of Drought on Hydropower Generation Under Climate Change: A Case Study on the Upstream of Kelani River Basin, Sri Lanka DOI
Z. A. Apu, Lalith Rajapakse, Luminda Gunawardhana

и другие.

Опубликована: Янв. 1, 2025

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

0
A Geographical Appraisal of Hydrological Drought—A Case Study DOI
Samira Bayati, Akbar Norouzi-Shokrlu, Sara Mardanian

и другие.

Springer geography, Год журнала: 2025, Номер unknown, С. 29 - 50

Опубликована: Янв. 1, 2025

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

0
Connecting meteorological and hydrological drought in the Baltic Region DOI
Diana Meilutytė-Lukauskienė, Alireza Sharifi, Serhii Nazarenko

и другие.

Atmospheric Research, Год журнала: 2025, Номер unknown, С. 108138 - 108138

Опубликована: Апрель 1, 2025

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

0
Drought Monitoring in the Agrotechnological Districts of the Semear Digital Center DOI Creative Commons
Tamires Lima da Silva, L. A. S. Romani, S. R. M. Evangelista

и другие.

Atmosphere, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 16(4), С. 465 - 465

Опубликована: Апрель 17, 2025

Drought affects the agricultural sector, posing challenges for farm management, particularly among medium- and small-scale producers. This study uses climate data from remote sensing products to evaluate drought trends in Semear Digital Center’s Agrotechnological Districts (DATs), which are characterized by a high concentration of small- medium-sized farms Brazil. Precipitation Climate Hazards Group InfraRed with Station (CHIRPS) land surface temperature Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) were applied calculate Standardized Precipitation–Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) 6-month timescale 2000 2024, analysis divided into 2000–2012 2013–2024. Some limitations noted: MODIS systematically underestimated temperatures, while CHIRPS tended underestimate precipitation most DATs. Despite discrepancies, these datasets remain valuable monitoring areas where long-term ground weather station lacking SPEI assessments. Agricultural frequency severity increased 2013–2024 period. Exceptional, extreme, severe, moderate events rose 7.3, 5.4, 2.2 1.0 times, respectively. These highlight importance adopting smart farming technologies enhance resilience DATs change.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

0
A new statistical framework for future drought assessment – mutual information-based regional integrated standardized multicriteria decision for drought assessment DOI
Muhammad Taimoor Shakeel, Zulfiqar Ali

Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 156(6)

Опубликована: Май 16, 2025

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

0
Impact of Climate Change on Wheat Production in Algeria and Optimization of Irrigation Scheduling for Drought Periods DOI Open Access

Youssouf Ouzani,

Fatima Hiouani,

Mirza Junaid Ahmad

и другие.

Water, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 17(11), С. 1658 - 1658

Опубликована: Май 29, 2025

This study investigates the impact of climate variability on wheat production in Algeria’s semi-arid interior plains from 2014 to 2024, aiming curb challenges rainfed cultivation, optimize irrigation, and improve water productivity. The Soil–Water–Atmosphere–Plant (SWAP) model-driven approach refined irrigation scheduling mitigate climate-induced losses resource efficiency. Using historical data, soil properties, growth observations experimental farm Technical Institute for Field Crops, SWAP model was calibrated validated using one-factor-at-a-time sensitivity analysis, achieving a coefficient determination (R2) 0.93 Normalized Root Mean Squared Error (NRMSE) 17.75. Two drought-based indices, Soil Moisture Drought Index (SMDI) Crop Water Stress (CWSI), guided adaptive strategies, showing significant reduction crop failure during drought periods. Results revealed strong link between rainfall yield. Adopting 9-day interval could increase productivity 18.91 kg ha−1 mm−1, enhancing yield stability under varying climatic conditions. SMDI maintained moisture extreme drought, while CWSI optimized use normal wet years. integrates into framework, offering data-driven strategies enhance resilience. Findings support sustainable management provide practical insights policymakers farmers refine planning adaptation, contributing long-term agricultural sustainability.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

0
A sustainability trilogy approach for drought risk prevention: Case study in Indonesia DOI Creative Commons
Akhmad Ramli, Sumarmi Sumarmi, I Komang Astina

и другие.

Jàmbá Journal of Disaster Risk Studies, Год журнала: 2025, Номер unknown

Опубликована: Июнь 3, 2025

Drought presents a major challenge to agriculture and rural livelihoods, particularly in countries like Indonesia, which feature diverse topography unpredictable rainfall patterns. This study addresses the critical need for sustainable approach mitigate drought risks by employing ‘sustainability trilogy’ that integrates economic, social, environmental dimensions. The research objectives are to: (1) identify potential impacts of drought, (2) evaluate water management programmes technologies combat (3) apply three pillars development through sustainability trilogy as framework disaster mitigation. A case methodology was employed, focusing on Lombok, where systems agricultural practices were examined. Data collection involved field observations, interviews, focus group discussions (FGDs) with local farmers, irrigation managers, community leaders. thematic analysis combined expert judgement used effectiveness conservation techniques, land management, climate adaptation policies. findings indicate short-term solutions, such optimising reservoirs storage systems, significantly reduce immediate impacts. Medium-term strategies, including community-driven efforts practices, enhance resilience drought. Long-term policies, initiatives artificial rain technologies, vital ensuring resource context change. Contribution: provides valuable insights practical policymakers, aimed at strengthening resilience, agriculture, drought-prone regions.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

0
Assessment and characterisation of hydrometeorological droughts in the Upper Mzingwane sub-catchment of Zimbabwe DOI
Bright Chisadza, Onalenna Gwate, France Ncube

и другие.

Natural Hazards, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 116(3), С. 3275 - 3299

Опубликована: Янв. 3, 2023

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

6
Trends and Patterns of Daily Maximum, Minimum and Mean Temperature in Brazil from 2000 to 2020 DOI Open Access
Leone Francisco Amorim Curado, Sérgio Roberto de Paulo, Iramaia Jorge Cabral de Paulo

и другие.

Climate, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 11(8), С. 168 - 168

Опубликована: Авг. 10, 2023

According to data obtained from meteorological towers, Brazil has significantly increased temperature in the past 20 years, particularly North and Midwest regions. Vapor pressure deficit evapotranspiration were also analyzed, showing an increase across entire country, confirming that air is becoming drier. This warming trend part of global climate change phenomenon caused by rise greenhouse gases atmosphere, fires, poor soil management practices, deforestation, logging. The dryness profoundly impacted Brazil’s ecosystems, leading intensified extreme weather events changes distribution both animal plant species. study highlights importance utilizing tower monitor understand effects Brazil. It emphasizes need for immediate action address its causes mitigate negative impacts.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

6