Toward a Better Understanding of Wildfire Behavior in the Wildland‐Urban Interface: A Case Study of the 2021 Marshall Fire

Geophysical Research Letters, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 50(10)

Опубликована: Май 16, 2023

Abstract On 30 December 2021, the Marshall Fire devastated Boulder, Colorado region. The fire initiated in fine fuels open space just southeast of Boulder and spread rapidly due to strong, downslope winds that penetrated into Foothills. Despite increasing occurrence wildland‐urban interface (WUI) disasters, many questions remain about how fires progress through vegetation built environment. To help answer these for Fire, we use a coupled fire‐atmosphere model Doppler on Wheels (DOW) observations study fire's progression as well examine physical drivers its spread. Evaluation using DOW suggests is able capture general characteristics flow field; however, it does not produce robust hydraulic jump one observed. Our results highlight limitations should be addressed successful WUI simulations.

Язык: Английский

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Spatiotemporal prediction of wildfire size extremes with Bayesian finite sample maxima

Ecological Applications, Год журнала: 2019, Номер 29(6)

Опубликована: Апрель 13, 2019

Abstract Wildfires are becoming more frequent in parts of the globe, but predicting where and when wildfires occur remains difficult. To predict wildfire extremes across contiguous United States, we integrate a 30‐yr record with meteorological housing data spatiotemporal Bayesian statistical models spatially varying nonlinear effects. We compared different distributions for number sizes large fires to generate posterior predictive distribution based on finite sample maxima extreme events (the largest over bounded domains). A zero‐inflated negative binomial model fire counts lognormal burned areas provided best performance. This attains 99% interval coverage 93% six year withheld set. Dryness air temperature strongly probabilities. Housing density has hump‐shaped relationship occurrence, occurring at intermediate densities. Statistically, these drivers affect chance an two ways: by altering size distributions, frequency, which influences sampling from tails distributions. conclude that recent should not be surprising, States may verge even larger extremes.

Язык: Английский

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Severe Fire Danger Index: A Forecastable Metric to Inform Firefighter and Community Wildfire Risk Management

Fire, Год журнала: 2019, Номер 2(3), С. 47 - 47

Опубликована: Авг. 27, 2019

Despite major advances in numerical weather prediction, few resources exist to forecast wildland fire danger conditions support operational management decisions and community early-warning systems. Here we present the development evaluation of a spatial index that can be used assess historical events, extreme danger, communicate those both firefighters public. It uses two United States National Fire Danger Rating System indices are related intensity spread potential. These normalized, combined, categorized based on 39-yr climatology (1979–2017) produce single, categorical metric called Severe Index (SFDI) has five classes; Low, Moderate, High, Very Severe. We evaluate SFDI against number newly reported wildfires total area burned from agency reports (1992–2017) as well daily remotely sensed numbers active pixels radiative power for large fires (2003–2016) Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) across conterminous States. show adequately captures geographic seasonal variations activity intensity, where 58% eventual by records, 75.2% all MODIS pixels, 81.2% occurred when was either High or (above 90th percentile). further is strong predictor firefighter fatalities, 97 129 (75.2%) burnover deaths 1979 2017 Finally, an system short-term, predictions forecasts 76.2% satellite detections during first 48 h following ignition nine high-profile case study 2018 under conditions. The studies indicate events caused tremendous damage loss life could mapped ahead time, which would allow managers vulnerable communities additional time prepare potentially dangerous Ultimately, this simple provide critical decision information fire-prone form basis improve situational awareness save lives.

Язык: Английский

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Encyclopedia of Wildfires and Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI) Fires

Springer eBooks, Год журнала: 2020, Номер unknown

Опубликована: Янв. 1, 2020

Язык: Английский

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Fire Weather Index: the skill provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ensemble prediction system

Natural hazards and earth system sciences, Год журнала: 2020, Номер 20(8), С. 2365 - 2378

Опубликована: Авг. 28, 2020

Abstract. In the framework of EU Copernicus programme, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) on behalf Joint Research (JRC) is forecasting daily fire weather indices using its medium-range ensemble prediction system. The use forecasts in place local observations can extend early warnings by up to 1–2 weeks, allowing greater proactive coordination resource-sharing and mobilization within across countries. Using 1 year pre-operational service 2017 Fire Index (FWI), here we assess capability system globally analyse detail three major events Chile, Portugal California. analysis shows that skill provided forecast extends more than 10 d when compared mean climate, making a case extending range sub-seasonal seasonal timescale. However, accurate FWI does not translate into accuracy activity globally. Indeed, all fires detected are considered, including agricultural- human-induced burning, high values only occur 50 % cases limited Boreal regions. Nevertheless very large which were driven conditions, provide advance warning could be instrumental setting management containment strategies.

Язык: Английский

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