Early Warning and Management Measures for the Non-Agriculturalization of Cultivated Land in Shaanxi Province of China Based on a Patch-Generated Land Use Simulation Model DOI Creative Commons

Huiting Yan,

Hao Chen,

Fei Wang

и другие.

Agriculture, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 15(7), С. 672 - 672

Опубликована: Март 21, 2025

This study aimed to analyze the spatiotemporal trends of non-agriculturalization cultivated land (NACL) and evaluate effectiveness management strategies in Shaanxi Province, China. First, geostatistical analysis was conducted examine NACL dynamics, revealing that most areas remained a mild early warning state from 2000 2010. However, levels escalated severe or extreme northern Shaanxi, parts Guanzhong, southern between 2010 2020. Subsequently, Patch-Generated Land Use Simulation Model (PLUS) employed simulate under different scenarios, using 2020 as baseline 2035 target year. The scenarios include natural growth (NG), protection (CP), ecological (EP), which were designed based on national provincial use planning objectives for 2035. results indicated that, NG scenario, overall area is projected decline by 2035, although will remain highly susceptible NACL. CP scenario effectively mitigated NACL, reducing moderate Guanzhong Shaanxi. Spatial clustering further revealed consistently exhibited high–high both historical periods across scenarios. These findings establish research framework identifying forecasting while providing scientific basis optimizing resource allocation informing policy decisions.

Язык: Английский

Early Warning and Management Measures for the Non-Agriculturalization of Cultivated Land in Shaanxi Province of China Based on a Patch-Generated Land Use Simulation Model DOI Creative Commons

Huiting Yan,

Hao Chen,

Fei Wang

и другие.

Agriculture, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 15(7), С. 672 - 672

Опубликована: Март 21, 2025

This study aimed to analyze the spatiotemporal trends of non-agriculturalization cultivated land (NACL) and evaluate effectiveness management strategies in Shaanxi Province, China. First, geostatistical analysis was conducted examine NACL dynamics, revealing that most areas remained a mild early warning state from 2000 2010. However, levels escalated severe or extreme northern Shaanxi, parts Guanzhong, southern between 2010 2020. Subsequently, Patch-Generated Land Use Simulation Model (PLUS) employed simulate under different scenarios, using 2020 as baseline 2035 target year. The scenarios include natural growth (NG), protection (CP), ecological (EP), which were designed based on national provincial use planning objectives for 2035. results indicated that, NG scenario, overall area is projected decline by 2035, although will remain highly susceptible NACL. CP scenario effectively mitigated NACL, reducing moderate Guanzhong Shaanxi. Spatial clustering further revealed consistently exhibited high–high both historical periods across scenarios. These findings establish research framework identifying forecasting while providing scientific basis optimizing resource allocation informing policy decisions.

Язык: Английский

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