Monte Carlo Simulations for Resolving Verifiability Paradoxes in Forecast Risk Management and Corporate Treasury Applications
International Journal of Financial Studies,
Год журнала:
2025,
Номер
13(2), С. 49 - 49
Опубликована: Апрель 1, 2025
Forecast
risk
management
is
central
to
the
financial
process.
This
study
aims
apply
Monte
Carlo
simulation
solve
three
classic
probabilistic
paradoxes
and
discuss
their
implementation
in
corporate
management.
The
article
presents
as
an
advanced
tool
for
processes.
method
allows
a
comprehensive
analysis
of
forecasts,
making
it
possible
assess
potential
errors
cash
flow
forecasts
predict
value
treasury
growth
under
various
future
scenarios.
In
investment
decision-making
process,
supports
evaluation
effectiveness
projects
by
calculating
expected
net
identifying
risks
associated
with
investments,
allowing
more
informed
decisions
be
made
project
implementation.
used
reducing
volatility,
which
contributes
lowering
cost
capital
increasing
company.
Simulation
also
enables
accurate
liquidity
planning,
including
forecasting
availability
determining
appropriate
reserves
based
on
probability
distributions.
credit
interest
rate
risk,
enabling
impact
economic
scenarios
company’s
obligations.
context
strategic
extension
decision
tree
analysis,
where
subsequent
are
results
earlier
ones.
Creating
models
simulations
makes
take
into
account
random
variables
key
indicators,
such
free
(FCF).
Compared
traditional
methods,
offers
detailed
precise
approach
decision-making,
providing
companies
vital
information
uncertainty.
emphasizes
that
use
not
only
enhances
management,
but
long-term
value.
entire
process
able
move
predicting
flows
discounted
at
capital.
We
both
numerical
analytical
methods
veridical
paradoxes.
Veridical
type
paradox
result
counterintuitive,
turns
out
true
after
careful
examination.
means
although
initial
reasoning
may
lead
wrong
conclusion,
correct
mathematical
or
logical
confirms
correctness
results.
An
example
Monty
Hall’s
problem,
intuitive
answer
suggests
equal
success,
while
shows
changing
increases
chances
winning.
method.
following
were
used:
conditional
probability,
Bayes’
rule
multiple
conditions.
solved
truth-type
discovered
why
Hall
problem
was
so
widely
discussed
1990s.
differentiated
problems
using
different
numbers
doors
prizes.
Язык: Английский
Detection of earnings manipulations during the corporate life cycle in Central European countries
Equilibrium Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy,
Год журнала:
2024,
Номер
19(2), С. 623 - 660
Опубликована: Июнь 30, 2024
Research
background:
The
growing
trend
of
financial
distress
risk
worldwide
increases
the
need
for
effective
tools
to
detect
accounting
manipulation
by
stakeholders
(debt
holders,
shareholders,
suppliers,
and
customers).
However,
well-known
models
accrual
earnings
management
do
not
reflect
specificity
individual
life
cycle
stages
their
cash
flow
patterns.
Purpose
article:
study
examines
impact
corporate
on
reliability
identifies
appropriate
detecting
in
Central
European
countries.
Methods:
Seven
were
used.
They
evaluated
based
five
criteria:
explanatory
power
(adjusted
coefficient
determination),
overall
significance
regression
model,
coefficients,
predicted
sign
standard
errors
estimated
coefficients.
Finally,
a
comprehensive
scoring
model
was
used
determine
quality
examined.
conducted
sample
more
than
30,000
enterprises
from
four
countries
(the
Czech
Republic,
Hungary,
Poland,
Slovakia),
with
data
covering
period
2017–2021.
Dickinson
non-sequential
distinguish
according
Findings
&
value
added:
results
suggest
that,
firstly,
discretionary
accruals
vary
across
as
well
over
firm's
cycle;
manipulations
have
an
inverted
U-shape
mature
firms
tending
reduce
profit.
examined
poor
case
start-ups.
This
reflects
between
detection
manipulation.
Язык: Английский
Eco-Innovation: Analysis of EU Member States Performance in the EU Eco-Innovation Index 2013–2022
Systems,
Год журнала:
2024,
Номер
12(11), С. 452 - 452
Опубликована: Окт. 25, 2024
Sustainability
is
about
intergenerational
solidarity
in
finding
solutions
to
ensure
the
continued
growth
that
allows
organizations
and
companies
be
proactive.
In
context
of
contemporary
technology,
fourth
industrial
revolution,
i.e.,
widely
accepted
notion
Industry
4.0,
swift
corporate
growth;
effects
industry,
transportation,
urbanization
on
climate
change;
preservation
environment
its
entirety
are
becoming
more
significant.
The
primary
objective
this
study
evaluate
eco-innovation
performance
European
nations,
comparing
their
evolution
from
2013
2022,
order
identify
patterns,
leaders,
opportunities
for
improvement
implementation
strategies.
This
includes
analysis
Eco-Innovation
Index
as
well
other
studies
carried
out
at
Union
level
field
sustainability
sustainable
innovation
through
graphic
maps,
cluster
analysis,
correspondence
statistical
program
SPSS.
Different
approaches
development
taken
by
EU’s
member
states.
Even
though
some
countries
have
achieved
significantly
lower
results
than
average
or
higher
average,
overall,
all
(except
Romania)
improved
point
evaluations
when
compared
year
started
reported.
nations
Northern
region
produce
consistent,
long-term
outcomes,
these
emerged
leaders
recent
years.
Luxembourg,
Austria,
Finland,
Sweden,
Denmark
best
outcomes.
On
contrary,
Bulgaria
has
ranked
last
a
long
time,
with
least-rated
activities.
Язык: Английский
International Perspectives on Circular Economy: The Visegrád Group Case
Опубликована: Янв. 1, 2024
Язык: Английский
Sustainable Development of Small Business in Kazakhstan
Economies,
Год журнала:
2024,
Номер
12(9), С. 247 - 247
Опубликована: Сен. 14, 2024
The
small
business
sector
in
Kazakhstan
demonstrates
dynamic
growth,
but
its
sustainable
development
modern
conditions
requires
activation
from
government
agencies,
society
and
entrepreneurs
themselves.
purpose
of
the
article
was
to
study
entrepreneurship
develop
a
mechanism
for
based
on
network
interaction
“business
entities–society–state”
with
identification
priority
areas
rating
approach.
methods
bibliographic
analysis
scientific
literature,
statistical,
correlation
analysis,
survey,
comparative
ranking
data
normalization
were
used.
results
revealed
need
formalize
indicators
strategic
programs;
create
conditions,
support,
explain
importance
prospects
investing
innovations
by
businesses
form
balanced
strategy
achieving
carbon
neutrality
approach
ensure
transparency
publicity
decisions
made.
Conclusions
made
about
popularize
among
entities,
stimulate
investment
activity
through
participation,
enact
legislative
regulation
public
presentation
non-financial
reporting,
assist
formation
an
ESG
culture.
Язык: Английский
Sustainable public policy instruments: revealing global interest in circular economy and eco-innovations
ADMINISTRATIE SI MANAGEMENT PUBLIC,
Год журнала:
2024,
Номер
43(43), С. 6 - 24
Опубликована: Дек. 1, 2024
The
concept
of
eco-innovation
has
become
increasingly
popular
as
the
industrial
industry
should
move
toward
sustainability.
For
businesses
to
establish
core
competences
in
circular
economy
model,
strategies
are
crucial
components.
Academicians
now
studying
information
behind
these
corporate
decisions,
with
a
growing
body
work
on
topic.
main
goal
study
is
reveal
and
describe
development
interest
topic
ecological
environmental
innovations
through
bibliometric
analysis.
analysis
used
prevailing
trends
fields
sustainability,
sustainable
development,
green
economy,
eco-innovations.
fundamental
techniques
comparison,
induction,
synthesis,
analysis,
deduction
applied.
In
addition,
authors
focused
it
allows
processing
huge
amounts
data
creation
scientific
maps.
process
various
countries
around
world
diverse.
Environmental
appear
present
substantial
challenge.
prioritisation
also
observable
publications
academic
sphere.
Bibliometric
reveals
increasing
popularity
ecoinnovations
among
authors,
indicating
unavoidable
need
tackle
more
approach
economic
production
activities.
Язык: Английский
Effect of Selected Determinants on the Sustainability of SMEs: Does Gender Matter?
Administrative Sciences,
Год журнала:
2024,
Номер
14(11), С. 281 - 281
Опубликована: Ноя. 1, 2024
The
paper
aims
to
find
disparities
in
the
perception
of
sustainability-related
criteria’s
impact
on
sustainability
SMEs
countries
V4
based
gender.
case
study
was
conducted
1398
responses
from
owners
or
top
managers
Visegrad
Group
(V4).
questionnaire
contained
52
questions.
Data
collection
by
an
external
agency
using
CAWI
methodology.
statistical
hypotheses
were
verified
applying
structural
equation
modelling
(SEM
method).
empirical
findings
are
important
for
many
authors
and
researchers.
environmental
aspect
entrepreneurship
is
most
factor,
having
a
strong
positive
SMEs.
This
includes
active
involvement
protection,
responsibility
as
part
SME
governance,
regarding
environment
firm
management.
Gender
evaluating
financial
management,
level
digitalisation
firm,
human
resource
business
ethics,
their
effect
Язык: Английский