Electing for stability: Democracy and output volatility, 1960-2019
Опубликована: Авг. 2, 2024
This
paper
examines
the
relationship
between
output
volatility
and
democracy,
decade
by
after
1960.
Using
a
range
of
approaches
to
identification,
we
find
that
democracy
lowers
volatility.
Язык: Английский
Economic Growth Analysis When Balanced Growth Paths May Be Time Varying
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics,
Год журнала:
2024,
Номер
unknown
Опубликована: Авг. 22, 2024
Abstract
The
determinants
of
an
economy's
growth
path
for
income
per
head
may
vary
over
time.
In
this
paper,
we
apply
unobserved
components
analysis
to
otherwise
standard
panel
model
economic
dynamics
so
that
long‐run
relative
can
change
at
any
point
We
data
US
states
1929–2021
and
the
world
economy
1970–2019.
both
datasets
initial
is
a
good
predictor
its
head.
Relatively
poor
economies
on
average
remain
relatively
poor.
Язык: Английский
Have autocrats governed for the long term?
Опубликована: Дек. 23, 2023
The
short
answer
is:
probably
not.
We
infer
the
priorities
of
national
governments
fromobserved
outcomes,
constructing
a
statistical
proxy
for
long-term
benevolence.
Using
databetween
1960
and
2019
more
than
100
countries,
we
show
that,
on
average,
democraciesscore
highly
our
measure.We
then
investigate
whether
variation
in
long-termbenevolence
can
explain
‘autocratic
gamble’
-
well-known
tendency
growthrates
to
vary
widely
across
autocracies
democracies.
that
thedistribution
benevolence
under
democracy
first-order
stochastically
dominatesits
distribution
autocracy.
Put
differently,
although
there
is
an
autocraticgamble
growth
rates,
no
autocratic
gamble
wider
development
outcomes.The
rapid
seen
some
originates
regime
self-interestrather
unusually
benevolent
leadership.
Язык: Английский