Increases of Compound Hot Extremes Will Significantly Amplify the Population Exposure Risk Over the Mid–High Latitudes of Asia DOI
Wenhao Jiang, Huopo Chen, Huijun Wang

и другие.

International Journal of Climatology, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 45(1)

Опубликована: Ноя. 20, 2024

ABSTRACT Based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) simulations, we found that the frequency and intensity of daytime–nighttime compound hot extremes (HEs) in mid‐high latitudes Asia (MHA) are expected to increase. The most significant increase is anticipated under shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) 5‐8.5, while smallest SSP1‐2.6. Notably, unlike decreasing trends independent HEs since 2050 high emission scenarios, HEs, which comprise largest proportion, continuously intensify. To better understand impact these changes human society, also focused population exposed HEs. findings reveal exposure nighttime projected rapidly SSP3‐7.0, with estimates indicating increases 10.06 3.80 times, respectively, by end century. mid‐latitudes, where pronounced. Climate change primary driver behind rising its grow over time. Conversely, daytime primarily influenced changes, particularly urban areas. Therefore, effective climate mitigation adaptive strategies crucial reducing future MHA.

Язык: Английский

Spatiotemporal variations of global precipitation concentration and potential links to flood-drought events in past 70 years DOI
Jianing Sun, Huilan Zhang, Tiezheng Wang

и другие.

Atmospheric Research, Год журнала: 2025, Номер unknown, С. 108086 - 108086

Опубликована: Март 1, 2025

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

1
Sorely reducing emissions of non-methane short-lived climate forcers will worsen compound flood-heatwave extremes in the Northern Hemisphere DOI Creative Commons
Yingfang Li, Zhili Wang, Yadong Lei

и другие.

Advances in Climate Change Research, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 15(4), С. 737 - 750

Опубликована: Май 23, 2024

Non-methane short-lived climate forcer (SLCF) or near-term (NTCF) emissions, as a significant driver of change, can be reduced to improve air quality. These reductions may contribute additional warming the system in short term, thereby strongly affecting likelihood extremes. However, there has been no quantitative assessment impact non-methane SLCF mitigation on compound flood–heatwave extremes (CFHEs). This study quantitatively investigates changes future (2031–2050 versus 1995–2014) CFHEs and resulting population exposure Northern Hemisphere (NH) due reductions. We used multi-model ensemble simulations under two scenarios from Aerosol Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP) Coupled Phase 6 (CMIP6). The share same greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions but have weak (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 3-7.0) strong (SSP3-7.0-lowNTCF) levels quality control measures. results show that during 2031–2050 about 7.3% ± 2.3% increase grid NH relative period 1995–2014. frequency, intensity, duration by varying degrees. During 2031–2050, frequency across increases 2.9 0.9 events per decade CFHE are more pronounced East Asia, South Siberia, northern eastern North America. In intensities both heatwaves floods corresponding markedly, where heatwave magnitude (HWM) 0.3 0.2 Asia weighted average precipitation (WAP) 18.3% 15.3% 12.0% 4.5% respectively. other regions, rising temperatures dominate CFHEs. With regard CFHEs, SLCFs 0.1 d. Regionally, sensitivity global caused is 1.2–1.9 times higher than GHG forcing. NH-averaged (5.0 2.0) × 105 person event 2031–2050. emphasizes importance considering impacts cleaner responses societal planning.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

3
Interactions between atmospheric composition and climate change – progress in understanding and future opportunities from AerChemMIP, PDRMIP, and RFMIP DOI Creative Commons
Stephanie Fiedler, Vaishali Naïk, Fiona M. O’Connor

и другие.

Geoscientific model development, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 17(6), С. 2387 - 2417

Опубликована: Март 22, 2024

Abstract. The climate science community aims to improve our understanding of change due anthropogenic influences on atmospheric composition and the Earth's surface. Yet not all interactions are fully understood, uncertainty in model results persists, as assessed latest Intergovernmental Panel Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report. We synthesize current challenges emphasize opportunities for advancing between composition, air quality, change, well quantifying diversity. Our perspective is based expert views from three multi-model intercomparison projects (MIPs) – Precipitation Driver Response MIP (PDRMIP), Aerosol Chemistry (AerChemMIP), Radiative Forcing (RFMIP). While there many shared interests specializations across MIPs, they have their own scientific foci specific approaches. partial overlap MIPs proved useful perturbation–response paradigm through ensembles Earth system models varying complexity. discuss gaining insights that face computational process representation limits provide guidance lessons learned. Promising ideas overcome some long-standing near future kilometer-scale experiments better simulate circulation-dependent processes where it possible machine learning approaches needed, e.g., faster subgrid-scale parameterizations pattern recognition big data. New constraints can arise augmented observational products leverage multiple datasets with Future develop smart experiment protocols strive towards an optimal trade-off resolution, complexity, number simulations length and, thereby, help advance its impacts.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

1
Global Solar Droughts Due To Supply‐Demand Imbalance Exacerbated by Anthropogenic Climate Change DOI Creative Commons
Yadong Lei, Zhili Wang, Yangyang Xu

и другие.

Geophysical Research Letters, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 51(22)

Опубликована: Ноя. 25, 2024

Abstract Solar power will become the largest renewable energy source, contributing to global carbon neutrality. In addition well‐recognized temporal intermittency of solar supply, local demand cope with extreme weathers can further stress grid; both supply and be greatly influenced by future climate change. Here, we redefine drought events considering imbalance in power. Observation multi‐model simulations reveal an anthropogenic exacerbation frequency past three decades. Moreover, compared pathway SSP2‐4.5, neutrality SSP1‐2.6 mitigate increasing severity droughts 60% 63% 2090s, respectively. Our study suggests a co‐benefit stability security toward neutrality, especially developing nations where is major issue.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

1
Increases of Compound Hot Extremes Will Significantly Amplify the Population Exposure Risk Over the Mid–High Latitudes of Asia DOI
Wenhao Jiang, Huopo Chen, Huijun Wang

и другие.

International Journal of Climatology, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 45(1)

Опубликована: Ноя. 20, 2024

ABSTRACT Based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) simulations, we found that the frequency and intensity of daytime–nighttime compound hot extremes (HEs) in mid‐high latitudes Asia (MHA) are expected to increase. The most significant increase is anticipated under shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) 5‐8.5, while smallest SSP1‐2.6. Notably, unlike decreasing trends independent HEs since 2050 high emission scenarios, HEs, which comprise largest proportion, continuously intensify. To better understand impact these changes human society, also focused population exposed HEs. findings reveal exposure nighttime projected rapidly SSP3‐7.0, with estimates indicating increases 10.06 3.80 times, respectively, by end century. mid‐latitudes, where pronounced. Climate change primary driver behind rising its grow over time. Conversely, daytime primarily influenced changes, particularly urban areas. Therefore, effective climate mitigation adaptive strategies crucial reducing future MHA.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

0