Earth System Dynamics,
Год журнала:
2022,
Номер
13(1), С. 457 - 593
Опубликована: Март 15, 2022
Abstract.
Based
on
the
Baltic
Earth
Assessment
Reports
of
this
thematic
issue
in
System
Dynamics
and
recent
peer-reviewed
literature,
current
knowledge
effects
global
warming
past
future
changes
climate
Sea
region
is
summarised
assessed.
The
study
an
update
Second
Climate
Change
(BACC
II)
published
2015
focuses
atmosphere,
land,
cryosphere,
ocean,
sediments,
terrestrial
marine
biosphere.
summaries
gained
palaeo-,
historical,
regional
research,
we
find
that
main
conclusions
from
earlier
assessments
still
remain
valid.
However,
new
long-term,
homogenous
observational
records,
for
example,
Scandinavian
glacier
inventories,
sea-level-driven
saltwater
inflows,
so-called
Major
Inflows,
phytoplankton
species
distribution,
scenario
simulations
with
improved
models,
glaciers,
lake
ice,
food
web,
have
become
available.
In
many
cases,
uncertainties
can
now
be
better
estimated
than
before
because
more
models
were
included
ensembles,
especially
Sea.
With
help
coupled
feedbacks
between
several
components
system
been
studied,
multiple
driver
studies
performed,
e.g.
projections
web
include
fisheries,
eutrophication,
change.
New
datasets
led
to
a
revised
understanding
some
variables
such
as
salinity.
Furthermore,
it
has
evident
natural
variability,
particular
ocean
multidecadal
timescales,
greater
previously
estimated,
challenging
our
ability
detect
observed
projected
climate.
context,
first
palaeoclimate
regionalised
are
instructive.
Hence,
increased.
addition
well-known
influence
North
Atlantic
Oscillation,
was
found
also
other
low-frequency
modes
internal
Multidecadal
Variability,
profound
region.
Challenges
identified,
systematic
discrepancy
cloudiness
trends
difficulty
confidently
attributing
large
ecosystems
Finally,
compare
results
coastal
sea
assessments,
Region
(NOSCCA),
change
differ
those
Sea,
since
oceanography
very
different
seas
While
dynamics
dominated
by
tides,
characterised
brackish
water,
perennial
vertical
stratification
southern
subbasins,
seasonal
ice
cover
northern
subbasins.
Earth System Dynamics,
Год журнала:
2022,
Номер
13(1), С. 159 - 199
Опубликована: Янв. 25, 2022
Abstract.
The
Baltic
Sea,
located
in
northern
Europe,
is
a
semi-enclosed,
shallow
and
tideless
sea
with
seasonal
sea-ice
cover
its
sub-basins.
Its
long
water
residence
time
contributes
to
oxygen
depletion
the
bottom
of
southern
In
this
study,
recently
performed
scenario
simulations
for
Sea
including
marine
biogeochemistry
were
analysed
compared
earlier
published
projections.
Specifically,
dynamical
downscaling
using
regionally
coupled
atmosphere–ocean
climate
model
was
used
regionalise
four
global
Earth
system
models.
However,
as
regional
does
not
include
components
representing
terrestrial
biogeochemistry,
an
additional
catchment
physical–biogeochemical
included.
take
impact
various
level
rise
scenarios
into
account.
According
projections,
present
climate,
higher
temperatures,
shallower
mixed
layer
sharper
thermocline
during
summer,
less
greater
mixing
winter
can
be
expected.
Both
frequency
duration
heat
waves
will
increase
significantly,
particular
coastal
zone
(except
regions
frequent
upwellings).
Nonetheless,
due
uncertainties
projections
regarding
winds,
cycle
rise,
robust
statistically
significant
salinity
changes
could
identified.
changing
on
biogeochemical
cycling
predicted
considerable
but
still
smaller
than
that
plausible
nutrient
input
changes.
Implementing
proposed
Action
Plan,
abatement
plan
entire
area,
would
result
significantly
improved
ecological
status
reductions
size
hypoxic
area
also
future
which
turn
resilience
against
anticipated
change.
While
our
findings
heat-cycle
variables
mainly
confirm
simulations,
they
differ
substantially
from
cycles,
differences
experimental
setups
bioavailable
nutrients.
Earth System Dynamics,
Год журнала:
2022,
Номер
13(1), С. 633 - 685
Опубликована: Март 31, 2022
Abstract.
Location,
specific
topography,
and
hydrographic
setting
together
with
climate
change
strong
anthropogenic
pressure
are
the
main
factors
shaping
biogeochemical
functioning
thus
also
ecological
status
of
Baltic
Sea.
The
recent
decades
have
brought
significant
changes
in
First,
rising
nutrient
loads
from
land
second
half
20th
century
led
to
eutrophication
spreading
hypoxic
anoxic
areas,
for
which
permanent
stratification
water
column
limited
ventilation
deep-water
layers
made
favourable
conditions.
Since
1980s
Sea
been
continuously
decreasing.
This,
however,
has
so
far
not
resulted
improvements
oxygen
availability
deep
regions,
revealed
a
slow
response
time
system
reduction
land-derived
loads.
Responsible
that
is
low
burial
efficiency
phosphorus
at
conditions
its
remobilization
sediments
when
oxic
anoxic.
This
results
stoichiometric
excess
available
organic-matter
production,
promotes
growth
N2-fixing
cyanobacteria
turn
supports
eutrophication.
assessment
reviews
published
knowledge
on
In
content,
paper
covers
aspects
related
carbon,
nitrogen,
(C,
N,
P)
external
loads,
their
transformations
coastal
zone,
production
(eutrophication)
remineralization
(oxygen
availability),
role
turnover
C,
P.
addition
that,
this
focuses
marine
CO2
system,
structure
microbial
community,
contaminants
processes.
comprehensive
allowed
identifying
gaps
future
research
needs
field
biogeochemistry
The Science of The Total Environment,
Год журнала:
2023,
Номер
869, С. 161719 - 161719
Опубликована: Янв. 21, 2023
Understanding
the
cumulative
effects
of
multiple
stressors
is
a
research
priority
in
environmental
science.
Ecological
models
are
key
component
tackling
this
challenge
because
they
can
simulate
interactions
between
components
an
ecosystem.
Here,
we
ask,
how
has
popular
modeling
platform
Ecopath
with
Ecosim
(EwE)
been
used
to
model
human
impacts
related
climate
change,
land
and
sea
use,
pollution,
invasive
species?
We
conducted
literature
review
encompassing
166
studies
covering
other
than
fishing
mostly
aquatic
ecosystems.
The
most
modeled
were
physical
change
(60
studies),
species
introductions
(22),
habitat
loss
(21),
eutrophication
(20),
using
range
techniques.
Despite
comprehensive
coverage,
identified
four
gaps
that
must
be
filled
harness
potential
EwE
for
studying
stressor
effects.
First,
only
12%
investigated
three
or
more
stressors,
focusing
on
single
stressors.
Furthermore,
many
one
pathways
through
which
each
known
affect
Second,
various
methods
have
applied
define
response
functions
representing
groups.
These
large
effect
simulated
ecological
changes,
but
best
practices
deriving
them
yet
emerge.
Third,
dimensions
-
except
fisheries
rarely
considered.
Fourth,
3%
statistical
designs
allow
attribution
ecosystem
changes
stressors'
direct
interactions,
such
as
factorial
(computational)
experiments.
None
made
full
use
possibilities
arise
when
simulations
repeated
times
controlled
inputs.
argue
all
feasibly
by
integrating
advances
subfields
science
computational
statistics.
Environmental Pollution,
Год журнала:
2022,
Номер
318, С. 120853 - 120853
Опубликована: Дек. 9, 2022
Microplastics
(MPs)
are
ubiquitous
pollutants
in
the
ocean,
and
there
is
a
general
concern
about
their
persistence
potential
effects
on
marine
ecosystems.
We
still
know
little
smaller
size-fraction
of
MPs
(MPs
<300
μm),
which
not
collected
with
standard
nets
for
monitoring
(e.g.,
Manta
net).
This
study
aims
to
determine
concentration,
composition,
size
distribution
down
10
μm
Kattegat/Skagerrak
area.
Surface
water
samples
were
at
fourteen
stations
using
plastic-free
pump-filter
device
(UFO
sampler)
October
2020.
The
treated
an
enzymatic-oxidative
method
analyzed
FPA-μFTIR
imaging.
concentrations
ranged
between
11
87
MP
m-3,
88%
being
than
300
μm.
most
abundant
shape
fragments
(56%),
polyester,
polypropylene,
polyethylene
dominant
synthetic
polymer
types.
concentration
shows
significant
positive
correlation
seawater
density.
Furthermore,
was
tendency
towards
higher
Northern
Southern
parts
UFO
sampler
several
orders
magnitude
those
commonly
found
net
due
dominance
fractions.
Despite
multiple
sources
area,
level
pollution
surface
waters
low
compared
(<100
m-3)
other
regions.
studied
six
lower
causing
negative
pelagic
organisms
based
laboratory
exposure
studies,
thus
expected
cause
any
impact
food
web.
Water,
Год журнала:
2022,
Номер
14(22), С. 3772 - 3772
Опубликована: Ноя. 20, 2022
The
Baltic
Sea
is
a
unique
ecosystem
that
especially
sensitive
to
anthropogenic
pressure.
We
analysed
human
pressure
in
this
sea,
which
may
be
considered
as
paradoxes.
One
of
these,
paradox
“marine”
pollution.
almost
totally
surrounded
by
land
and
therefore
sources
marine
pollution
are
located
mainly
on
the
land.
Another
connected
with
shipping
traffic
intensity
maritime
accidents.
characterised
large
traffic,
but
last
decades’
data
show
only
more
than
100,
usually
insignificant
minor,
accidents
incidents
at
every
year.
Although
relatively
low
native
species
number
compared
most
systems,
it
home
alien
species.
Moreover,
despite
common
opinion
sea
source
living
resources,
available
riches
under
anthropopressure
limited
does
not
give
expected
benefits—it
next
paradox.
fact
warming
rapidly
due
climate
change
suitable
for
bathing
when
weather
favourable,
massive
algae
growth
often
prevents
it.
Therefore,
strong
impact
should
sustainable
use
prioritised.
