Paleorecords Reveal Biological Mechanisms Crucial for Reliable Species Range Shift Projections Amid Rapid Climate Change

Ecology Letters, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 28(2)

Опубликована: Фев. 1, 2025

ABSTRACT The recent acceleration of global climate warming has created an urgent need for reliable projections species distributions, widely used by natural resource managers. Such have been mainly produced distribution models with little information on their performances in novel climates. Here, we hindcast the range shifts forest tree across Europe over last 12,000 years to compare reliability three different types models. We show that most climatically dissimilar conditions, process‐explicit (PEMs) tend outperform correlative (CSDMs), and PEM are likely be more than those made CSDMs end 21st century. These results demonstrate first time often promoted albeit so far untested idea explicit description mechanisms confers model robustness, highlight a new avenue increase projection future.

Язык: Английский

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LegacyClimate 1.0: a dataset of pollen-based climate reconstructions from 2594 Northern Hemisphere sites covering the last 30 kyr and beyond

Earth system science data, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 15(6), С. 2235 - 2258

Опубликована: Июнь 2, 2023

Abstract. Here we describe LegacyClimate 1.0, a dataset of the reconstruction mean July temperature (TJuly), annual (Tann), and precipitation (Pann) from 2594 fossil pollen records Northern Hemisphere, spanning entire Holocene, with some reaching back to Last Glacial Period. Two methods, modern analog technique (MAT) weighted averaging partial least squares regression (WA-PLS), reveal similar results regarding spatial temporal patterns. To reduce impact on reconstruction, vice versa, also provide reconstructions using tailored data, limiting range corresponding other climate variables. We assess reliability reconstructions, information distributions root squared error in prediction significance tests. The is beneficial for synthesis studies proxy-based evaluate output models thus help improve themselves. our compilation reconstructed TJuly, Tann, Pann as open-access datasets at PANGAEA (https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.930512; Herzschuh et al., 2023a). R code provided Zenodo (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7887565; 2023b), including harmonized used so that customized can be easily established.

Язык: Английский

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Regional pollen-based Holocene temperature and precipitation patterns depart from the Northern Hemisphere mean trends

Climate of the past, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 19(7), С. 1481 - 1506

Опубликована: Июль 25, 2023

Abstract. A mismatch between model- and proxy-based Holocene climate change, known as the “Holocene conundrum”, may partially originate from poor spatial coverage of reconstructions in, for example, Asia, limiting number grid cells model–data comparisons. Here we investigate hemispheric, latitudinal, regional mean time series time-slice anomaly maps pollen-based annual temperature, July precipitation 1908 records in Northern Hemisphere extratropics. Temperature trends show strong latitudinal patterns differ (sub-)continents. While circum-Atlantic regions Europe eastern North America a pronounced Middle temperature maximum, western shows only weak changes, Asia mostly continuous increase. Likewise, certain peculiarities such maximum 40 50∘ N increasing America, which can all be linked with changes circulation pattern responding to change. Given background heterogeneity, conclude that calculation global or hemispheric means, initiated conundrum debate, should focus more on understanding spatiotemporal their drivers.

Язык: Английский

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Potential plant extinctions with the loss of the Pleistocene mammoth steppe

Nature Communications, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 16(1)

Опубликована: Янв. 14, 2025

Abstract During the Pleistocene-Holocene transition, dominant mammoth steppe ecosystem across northern Eurasia vanished, in parallel with megafauna extinctions. However, plant extinction patterns are rarely detected due to lack of identifiable fossil records. Here, we introduce a method for detection taxa loss at regional (extirpation) potentially global scale (extinction) and their causes, as determined from ancient DNA metabarcoding sediment cores ( sed aDNA) lakes Siberia Alaska over past 28,000 years. Overall, potential extinctions track changes temperature, vegetation, transition. Estimated rates were 1.7–5.9 per million species years (E/MSY), above background but below modern estimates. Major events around 17,000 9000 ago which lag maximum vegetation turnover. Our results indicate that herbaceous contributing less beta diversity more vulnerable extinction. While robustness estimates will increase reference libraries aDNA data expand, available support plants resilient environmental than mammals.

Язык: Английский

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A guide to the processing and standardization of global palaeoecological data for large‐scale syntheses using fossil pollen

Global Ecology and Biogeography, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 32(8), С. 1377 - 1394

Опубликована: Май 2, 2023

Abstract Aim Palaeoecological data are crucial for comprehending large‐scale biodiversity patterns and the natural anthropogenic drivers that influence them over time. Over last decade, availability of open‐access research databases palaeoecological proxies has substantially increased. These open door to questions needing advanced numerical analyses modelling based on big‐data compilations. However, compiling analysing pose unique challenges require a guide producing standardized reproducible Innovation We present step‐by‐step how process fossil pollen into dataset compilation ready macroecological analyses. describe successive criteria will enhance quality Though these project question‐dependent, we discuss most important assumptions should be considered adjusted accordingly. Our is accompanied by an R‐workflow—called FOSSILPOL —and corresponding R‐package—called R‐Fossilpol— provide detailed protocol interdisciplinary users. illustrate workflow sourcing processing Scandinavian datasets show reproducibility continental‐scale processing. Main Conclusions The study through time space requires syntheses datasets. preparation such must transparent reproducible. With our R‐package, optimal handling large compilations reproducibility. also relevant synthesis other as offers synthetic cross‐disciplinary with macroecological, biogeographical perspectives. emphasize expertise informed decisions knowledge remain high‐quality strongly embedded in studies rely increasing amount data.

Язык: Английский

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Approaches to pollen taxonomic harmonisation in Quaternary palynology

Review of Palaeobotany and Palynology, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 319, С. 104989 - 104989

Опубликована: Сен. 16, 2023

Pollen taxonomic harmonisation involves the standardisation of nomenclature pollen and fern spores with similar morphotypes at determination level that is common to all grains or morphotype within sequence(s) interest. Such required prior subsequent investigations such as numerical analysis, comparing, mapping, synthesis, environmental reconstruction involving several sequences. Here we present two approaches harmonisation. These are a 'top-down' 'bottom-up' approach. The bottom-up approach preferred. It based on concept regional flora for in spatial area(s) study. We tables continental sub-continental scales developed Humans Planet Earth (HOPE) project. North America, Latin Europe, Asia (three parts), Indo-Pacific. harmonisations project-specific sequence-specific, relating geographical area sequences under consideration, both which linked research questions being addressed. A new consistent needed when additional areas added. However, HOPE can serve starting point further multi-sequence analyses syntheses.

Язык: Английский

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Late Glacial and Holocene vegetation and lake changes in SW Yakutia, Siberia, inferred from sedaDNA, pollen, and XRF data

Frontiers in Earth Science, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 12

Опубликована: Апрель 26, 2024

Only a few palaeo-records extend beyond the Holocene in Yakutia, eastern Siberia, since most of lakes region are thermokarst origin. Thus, we have poor understanding long-term interactions between terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems their response to climate change. The Lake Khamra southwestern Yakutia is particular interest because it transition zones from discontinuous sporadic permafrost summergreen evergreen boreal forests. Our multiproxy study sediments reaching back Last Glacial Maximum 21 cal ka BP, includes analyses organic carbon, nitrogen, XRF-derived elements, sedimentary ancient DNA amplicon sequencing plants diatoms, as well classical counting pollen non-pollen palynomorphs (NPP). palaeogenetic approach revealed 45 diatom, 191 plant, 65 macrophyte taxa. Pollen identified 34 taxa 28 NPP inferred ecosystem comprises tundra vegetation dominated by forbs grasses, likely inhabited megaherbivores. By 18.4 BP lake had developed with high abundance macrophytes dominant fragilarioid while shrubs expanded around lake. In Bølling-Allerød at 14.7 both systems reflect amelioration, alongside water-level rise woodland establishment, which was curbed Younger Dryas cooling. Early warmer wetter led taiga development rise, reflected diatom composition turnover only epiphytic planktonic diatoms. Mid-Holocene water level decreased ca. 8.2 increased again 6.5 BP. At same time mixed evergreen-summergreen forest expanded. Late Holocene, 4 cover similar modern conditions established. This reveals shifts comprehensive catchment history region.

Язык: Английский

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Millennial-scale climate variability over land overprinted by ocean temperature fluctuations

Nature Geoscience, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 15(11), С. 899 - 905

Опубликована: Окт. 31, 2022

Variations in regional temperature have widespread implications for society, but our understanding of the amplitude and origin long-term natural variability is insufficient accurate projections. This especially case terrestrial variability, which currently thought to be weak over long timescales. By performing spectral analysis on climate reconstructions, produced using sedimentary pollen records from Northern Hemisphere last 8,000 years, coupled with instrumental data, we provide a comprehensive estimate annual millennial We show that short-term random variations are overprinted by strong ocean-driven multi-decadal longer may cause substantial potentially unpredictable climatic shifts coming century, contrast relatively muted homogeneous warming projected models. Due marine influence, regions characterized stable oceanic at sub-decadal timescales experience stronger continental higher weaker variability. fundamental relationship between provides unique insight into emergence marine-driven low-frequency regime governing sets basis project fluctuations longer.

Язык: Английский

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Review on vegetation, landscape and climate changes in the Carpathian Basin during the Neolithic and Chalcolithic period

Vegetation History and Archaeobotany, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 33(6), С. 769 - 794

Опубликована: Фев. 8, 2024

Abstract The Neolithic and Copper Age (CA) of Hungary (6000–2800 cal bc ) represents a meticulous construction settlement structure, material culture, arable farming herding techniques with at least one, but likely several reappearing population movements that brought in innovations possibly contributed to the societal changes this period. last couple decades witnessed considerable progress study concurrent vegetation, climate landscape management particularly via increased number high-resolution pollen records, archaeobotanical archaeological investigations, coupled stable isotope analyses charred cereal assemblages. In review we synthetize results these research projects demonstrate CA landscapes were characterised by mixed oak forest communities, territory thermophilous steppe forests present lowland principal choice early farmers represented Körös-Starčevo-Criş cultures. Climate modelling reconstruction from regions indicate higher than preindustrial summer mean temperatures modern rainfall. We Linear Pottery Culture was first culture technologically advanced clear larger plots land for crop cultivation purposes. large scale level clearance is discernible Hungarian records Late period, when size reached its maximum, both lowlands surrounding mid-mountains.

Язык: Английский

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Dynamic land-plant carbon sources in marine sediments inferred from ancient DNA

Communications Earth & Environment, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 6(1)

Опубликована: Фев. 3, 2025

Язык: Английский

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