Climate Extremes and Compound Hazards in a Warming World

Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Год журнала: 2020, Номер 48(1), С. 519 - 548

Опубликована: Фев. 20, 2020

Climate extremes threaten human health, economic stability, and the well-being of natural built environments (e.g., 2003 European heat wave). As world continues to warm, climate hazards are expected increase in frequency intensity. The impacts extreme events will also be more severe due increased exposure (growing population development) vulnerability (aging infrastructure) settlements. models attribute part projected increases intensity disasters anthropogenic emissions changes land use cover. Here, we review impacts, historical changes,and theoretical research gaps key (heat waves, droughts, wildfires, precipitation, flooding). We highlight need improve our understanding dependence between individual interrelated because anthropogenic-induced warming risk not only but compound (co-occurring) cascading hazards. ▪ a world. Anthropogenic-induced causes drivers

Язык: Английский

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Causes, impacts and patterns of disastrous river floods

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 2(9), С. 592 - 609

Опубликована: Авг. 10, 2021

Язык: Английский

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Housing as a determinant of health equity: A conceptual model

Social Science & Medicine, Год журнала: 2019, Номер 243, С. 112571 - 112571

Опубликована: Сен. 25, 2019

Язык: Английский

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The Relative Importance of Different Flood‐Generating Mechanisms Across Europe

Water Resources Research, Год журнала: 2019, Номер 55(6), С. 4582 - 4593

Опубликована: Май 14, 2019

Abstract Inferring the mechanisms causing river flooding is key to understanding past, present, and future flood risk. However, a quantitative spatially distributed overview of that drive across Europe currently unavailable. In addition, studies classify catchments according their flood‐driving often identify single mechanism per location, although multiple typically contribute We introduce new method uses seasonality statistics estimate relative importance extreme precipitation, soil moisture excess, snowmelt as drivers. Applying this European data set maximum annual flow dates in several thousand reveals from 1960 2010 relatively few floods were caused by rainfall peaks. Instead, most concurrence heavy precipitation with high antecedent moisture. For catchments, these has not substantially changed during past five decades. Exposing regional underlying Europe's costly natural hazard first step identifying processes require attention research.

Язык: Английский

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Influence of changes in rainfall and soil moisture on trends in flooding

Journal of Hydrology, Год журнала: 2019, Номер 575, С. 432 - 441

Опубликована: Май 18, 2019

Язык: Английский

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Challenges in modeling and predicting floods and droughts: A review

Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Water, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 8(3)

Опубликована: Март 11, 2021

Abstract Predictions of floods, droughts, and fast drought‐flood transitions are required at different time scales to develop management strategies targeted minimizing negative societal economic impacts. Forecasts daily seasonal scale vital for early warning, estimation event frequency hydraulic design, long‐term projections developing adaptation future conditions. All three types predictions—forecasts, estimates, projections—typically treat droughts floods independently, even though both extremes can be studied using related approaches have similar challenges. In this review, we (a) identify challenges common drought flood prediction their joint assessment (b) discuss tractable tackle these We group into four interrelated categories: data, process understanding, modeling prediction, human–water interactions. Data‐related include data availability definition. Process‐related the multivariate spatial characteristics extremes, non‐stationarities, changes in extremes. Modeling arise analysis, stochastic, hydrological, earth system, modeling. Challenges with respect interactions lie establishing links impacts, representing interactions, science communication. potential ways tackling including exploiting new sources, studying a framework, influences compounding drivers, continuous stochastic models or non‐stationary models, obtaining stakeholder feedback. Tackling one several will improve predictions help minimize impacts extreme events. This article is categorized under: Science Water >

Язык: Английский

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A global-scale investigation of trends in annual maximum streamflow

Journal of Hydrology, Год журнала: 2017, Номер 552, С. 28 - 43

Опубликована: Июнь 14, 2017

Язык: Английский

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Global assessment of flood and storm extremes with increased temperatures

Scientific Reports, Год журнала: 2017, Номер 7(1)

Опубликована: Авг. 7, 2017

There is overwhelming consensus that the intensity of heavy precipitation events increasing in a warming world. It generally expected such increases will translate to corresponding increase flooding. Here, using global data sets for non-urban catchments, we investigate sensitivity extreme daily and streamflow changes temperature. We find little evidence suggest rainfall at higher temperatures result similar streamflow, with most regions throughout world showing decreased temperatures. To understand why this case, assess impact size catchment rarity event. As event becomes more smaller, characteristics as initial moisture become less relevant, leading consistent response extremes temperature increase. Our results indicate only cases, smaller do correspond streamflow.

Язык: Английский

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Interdependent Infrastructure as Linked Social, Ecological, and Technological Systems (SETSs) to Address Lock‐in and Enhance Resilience

Earth s Future, Год журнала: 2018, Номер 6(12), С. 1638 - 1659

Опубликована: Ноя. 8, 2018

Abstract Traditional infrastructure adaptation to extreme weather events (and now climate change) has typically been techno‐centric and heavily grounded in robustness—the capacity prevent or minimize disruptions via a risk‐based approach that emphasizes control, armoring, strengthening (e.g., raising the height of levees). However, nonclimate challenges facing are not purely technological. Ecological social systems also warrant consideration manage issues overconfidence, inflexibility, interdependence, resource utilization—among others. As result, strategies can result unwanted tradeoffs, unintended consequences, underaddressed vulnerabilities. Techno‐centric lock‐in today's vulnerable future design, management, regulatory practices may be particularly problematic by exacerbating these ecological rather than ameliorating them. Given challenges, we develop conceptual model case studies argue following: (1) simply technological should understood as complex interconnected social, ecological, (SETSs); (2) like lock‐in, stem from SETS interactions often overlooked underappreciated; (3) framing with lens help identify maladaptive lock‐in; (4) highlight effective traditionally considered. Ultimately, find treating shows promise for increasing adaptive highlighting how vulnerabilities evolve multidisciplinary deployed address broadening options adaptation.

Язык: Английский

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Nonstationary weather and water extremes: a review of methods for their detection, attribution, and management

Hydrology and earth system sciences, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 25(7), С. 3897 - 3935

Опубликована: Июль 7, 2021

Abstract. Hydroclimatic extremes such as intense rainfall, floods, droughts, heatwaves, and wind or storms have devastating effects each year. One of the key challenges for society is understanding how these are evolving likely to unfold beyond their historical distributions under influence multiple drivers changes in climate, land cover, other human factors. Methods analysing hydroclimatic advanced considerably recent decades. Here we provide a review drivers, metrics, methods detection, attribution, management, projection nonstationary extremes. We discuss issues uncertainty associated with approaches (e.g. arising from insufficient record length, spurious nonstationarities, incomplete representation sources modelling frameworks), examine empirical simulation-based frameworks analysis extremes, identify gaps future research.

Язык: Английский

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