Projection of temperature and precipitation in the Mediterranean region through multi-model ensemble from CMIP6

Atmospheric Research, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 280, С. 106440 - 106440

Опубликована: Сен. 16, 2022

Язык: Английский

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Future global concurrent droughts and their effects on maize yield

The Science of The Total Environment, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 855, С. 158860 - 158860

Опубликована: Сен. 17, 2022

Язык: Английский

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Projected changes in extreme climate events over Africa under 1.5°C, 2.0°C and 3.0°C global warming levels based on CMIP6 projections

Atmospheric Research, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 292, С. 106872 - 106872

Опубликована: Июнь 16, 2023

Язык: Английский

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Projected climate change impacts on streamflow in the Upper Oum Er Rbia Basin, Upstream of the Ahmed El Hansali Dam, Morocco

Environmental Challenges, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 18, С. 101101 - 101101

Опубликована: Фев. 3, 2025

Язык: Английский

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Hydrological modeling of spatial and temporal variations in streamflow due to multiple climate change scenarios in northwestern Morocco

Climate Services, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 30, С. 100388 - 100388

Опубликована: Апрель 1, 2023

Climate change is one of the most important factors impacting hydrological regimes. In this paper, climate impact on streamflow Loukkos basin (northwestern Morocco) evaluated using SWAT model for three future periods: near (2021–2040), mid (2041–2070), and far (2071–2100), compared to baseline 1981–2020. A set bias-corrected models was used: five regional (EURO-CORDEX), four global (CMIP6) their ensemble mean, under two representative concentration pathways respectively (RCP 4.5; RCP 8.5) (SSP2-4.5; SSP5-8.5). Furthermore, SUFI-2 algorithm in SWAT-CUP performed calibrate (1981–1997), validate (1998–2015), analyze uncertainty each dataset at ten stations. stations, statistical performance indicated a good simulation, with Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) greater than 0.77 percent bias (PBIAS) within ±10% monthly basis. Overall, 82% that could decline streamflow. The largest decrease would be 2071–2100 8.5/SSP5-8.5. Our findings help planners policymakers developing reasonable water management policies adaptation measures.

Язык: Английский

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Quantifying the Added Value in the NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 Models as Compared to Native CMIP6 in Simulating Africa’s Diverse Precipitation Climatology

Earth Systems and Environment, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 8(2), С. 417 - 436

Опубликована: Апрель 13, 2024

Язык: Английский

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Aridity shifts in the MENA region under the Paris Agreement climate change scenarios

Global and Planetary Change, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 238, С. 104483 - 104483

Опубликована: Май 28, 2024

Язык: Английский

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Projection of climate change impacts on extreme temperature and precipitation in Central Poland

Scientific Reports, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 13(1)

Опубликована: Окт. 31, 2023

Climate change is exacerbating the risk of occurrence extreme weather. This study has projected in mean and climate conditions Central Poland during near-future (2026-2050), mid-term (2051-2075), far-future (2076-2100) periods under two climate-change scenarios six General Circulation Models (GCMs) from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The results showed that, compared to historical reference period (1990-2014), will experience an increase temperature precipitation by end twenty-first century. It expected that annual totals 1-4.8 °C 2-7.5%, respectively. Furthermore, it average number hot, very hot days extremely (Tmax > 25 °C, 30 35 °C), tropical nights (Tmin 20 high daily (> 10 mm, mm mm) also increase, while slight frost < 0 severe Tmax - °C) decline on Therefore, essential for policymakers take some appropriate measurements strategies advance strengthen resilience events.

Язык: Английский

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Future Land Use and Flood Risk Assessment in the Guanzhong Plain, China: Scenario Analysis and the Impact of Climate Change

Remote Sensing, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 15(24), С. 5778 - 5778

Опубликована: Дек. 18, 2023

Continuously global warming and landscape change have aggravated the damage of flood disasters to ecological safety sustainable development. If risk under climate land-use changes can be predicted evaluated, it will conducive control, disaster reduction, This study uses bias correction spatial downscaling (BCSD), patch-generating simulation (PLUS) coupled with multi-objective optimization (MOP), entropy weighting construct a 1 km resolution assessment framework for Guanzhong Plain multiple future scenarios. The results this show that BCSD process 6th Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) data well, correlation coefficient up 0.98, Kappa is 0.85. Under SSP126 scenario, in land use from cultivated forest land, urban water bodies remained unchanged. In 2030, proportion high-risk medium-risk 41.5% 43.5% respectively. From 2030 2040, largest areas were medium- areas. area decreased by 1256.448 km2 (6.4%), increased 1197.552 (6.1%). increase mainly came transition area. most significant 2040 2050 higher-risk area, which 337 (5.7%), while 726.384 (3.7%) 667.488 (3.4%), SSP245 other use; distribution overall scenarios are similar. central western regions prone floods, high-wind distributed along Weihe River. general, increases, research guiding significance control plain

Язык: Английский

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Assessing Future Precipitation Patterns, Extremes and Variability in Major Nile Basin Cities: An Ensemble Approach with CORDEX CORE Regional Climate Models

Climate, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 12(1), С. 9 - 9

Опубликована: Янв. 14, 2024

Understanding long-term variations in precipitation is crucial for identifying the effects of climate change and addressing hydrological water management issues. This study examined trends mean four extreme indices, which are max 1-day amount, 5-day consecutive wet days, dry historical observations (1971–2000) two future periods (2041–2060/2081–2100) under RCP2.6 RCP8.5 emission scenarios over Nile River Basin (NRB) at 11 major stations. Firstly, empirical quantile mapping procedure significantly improved performance all RCMs, particularly those with lower performance, decreasing inter-model variability enhanced seasonal variability. The Mann–Kendall test was used to detect indices. reveals that changes vary across stations, scenarios, time periods. Addis Ababa Kigali anticipated a significant increase ranging between 8–15% 13–27%, respectively, while Cairo Kinshasa exhibited decrease around 90% 38%, respectively. Wet (dry) spells were expected (increase) most parts NRB, especially during second period (2081–2100). Thereby, (decrease) (wet) could have direct impact on resource availability NRB. also highlights increased greenhouse gas emissions greater patterns. study’s findings might be useful decision makers as they create NRB-wide mitigation adaptation strategies deal change.

Язык: Английский

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