Extreme precipitation indices over India using CMIP6: a special emphasis on the SSP585 scenario

Environmental Science and Pollution Research, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 30(16), С. 47119 - 47143

Опубликована: Фев. 3, 2023

Язык: Английский

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Projected changes in extreme rainfall and temperature events and possible implications for Cameroon's socio‐economic sectors

Meteorological Applications, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 30(2)

Опубликована: Март 1, 2023

Abstract Extreme events like flooding, droughts and heatwave are among the factors causing huge socio‐economic losses to Cameroonians. Investigating potential response of rainfall temperature extremes global warming is therefore critically needed for tailoring adjusting country's policies. Recent datasets have been developed this purpose within Coordinated Output Regional Evaluations (CORDEX‐CORE) initiative, at ~25 km grid spacing. These regional climate models were used dynamically downscaled four participating in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5), under optimistic pessimistic representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 2.6 8.5, respectively. employed study characterizing Cameroon's extreme precipitation warming, using seven indices defined by Expert Team on Climate Change Detection Indices. Under maximum number consecutive dry (wet) days' expected increase (decrease). However, annual total amount increase, mainly due intensification very wet days daily intensity. Furthermore, temperature‐based reveal an (decrease) hot (cold) days, overall, changes intensify with increased radiative forcing. The high‐mitigated low‐emission pathway RCP2.6 features attenuated changes, even sometimes adapts reverse sign changes. Designing reliable policies limit risks associated above required, as their consequences likely include food insecurity, heat‐related illness, population impoverishment, price rises market instability.

Язык: Английский

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Projected changes in extreme climate events over Africa under 1.5°C, 2.0°C and 3.0°C global warming levels based on CMIP6 projections

Atmospheric Research, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 292, С. 106872 - 106872

Опубликована: Июнь 16, 2023

Язык: Английский

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Comparison of multi-model ensembles of global and regional climate model projections for daily characteristics of precipitation over four major river basins in southern Africa. Part II: Future changes under 1.5 °C, 2.0 °C and 3.0 °C warming levels

Atmospheric Research, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 293, С. 106921 - 106921

Опубликована: Июль 16, 2023

Язык: Английский

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Quantifying the Added Value in the NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 Models as Compared to Native CMIP6 in Simulating Africa’s Diverse Precipitation Climatology

Earth Systems and Environment, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 8(2), С. 417 - 436

Опубликована: Апрель 13, 2024

Язык: Английский

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Evaluating the performance of global precipitation products for precipitation and extreme precipitation in arid and semiarid China

International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 130, С. 103888 - 103888

Опубликована: Май 17, 2024

Arid and semiarid areas account for more than half of China, have fragile ecological environments, are sensitive to global climate change human activities. Due the advantages wide coverage high resolution, multi-sources remote sensing precipitation products play an important role in monitoring where rainfall gauges scarce. Therefore, evaluating performance different becomes very important. Here, annual daily average data from China were analyzed 2000 2020. Nine datasets included: two reanalysis seven datasets. The results show that CHIRPS (Climate Hazards group Infrared Precipitation with Stations) is best product arid mean correlation coefficient between observed 0.82. CPC (CPC Global Unified Gauge-Based Analysis Daily Precipitation) shows less dispersion deviation precipitation, CN05 (observation data) 0.92. In addition, tailored local conditions, MSWEP (Multi-source weighted-Ensemble poorly Northwestern but better precipitation. Extreme has shown increasing trend last 20 years, a significant extreme semi-arid constant areas. PERSIANN (Precipitation Estimation Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks) China.

Язык: Английский

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Evaluating CMIP6 Precipitation Simulations Across Different Rainfall Regimes in the Amhara Region, Ethiopia

Natural Hazards Research, Год журнала: 2025, Номер unknown

Опубликована: Март 1, 2025

Язык: Английский

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Improving Daily CMIP6 Precipitation in Southern Africa Through Bias Correction—Part 1: Spatiotemporal Characteristics

Climate, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 13(5), С. 95 - 95

Опубликована: Май 4, 2025

Impact models used in water, ecology, and agriculture require accurate climatic data to simulate observed impacts. Some of these emphasize the distribution precipitation within a month or season rather than overall amount. To meet this requirement, study applied three bias correction techniques—scaled mapping (SDM), quantile (QDM), QDM with separate treatment for below above 95th percentile threshold (QDM95)—to daily from eleven Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models, using Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation Station version 2 (CHIRPS) as reference. This evaluated performance all bias-corrected CMIP6 over Southern Africa 1982 2014 replicating spatial temporal patterns across region against observational datasets, CHIRPS, Climatic Research Unit (CRU), Global Climatology Centre (GPCC), standard statistical metrics. The results indicate that generally performs better native model December–February (DJF) mean seasonal cycle. probability density function (PDF) regional indicates enhances performance, particularly range 3–35 mm/day. However, both corrected uncorrected underestimate higher extremes. pattern correlations GPCC, CRU, compared have improved 0.76–0.89 0.97–0.99, 0.73–0.87 0.94–0.97, 0.74–0.89 respectively. Additionally, Taylor skill scores CRU 0.57–0.80 0.79–0.95, 0.55–0.76 0.80–0.91, 0.54–0.75 0.81–0.91, Overall, among techniques, consistently demonstrated QDM95 SDM various implementation distribution-based resulted significant reduction consistency between observations region.

Язык: Английский

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Comparison of multimodel ensembles of global and regional climate models projections for extreme precipitation over four major river basins in southern Africa— assessment of the historical simulations

Climatic Change, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 176(5)

Опубликована: Май 1, 2023

Abstract This study assesses the performance of large ensembles global (CMIP5, CMIP6) and regional (CORDEX, CORE) climate models in simulating extreme precipitation over four major river basins (Limpopo, Okavango, Orange, Zambezi) southern Africa during period 1983–2005. The ability model to simulate seasonal indices is assessed using three high-resolution satellite-based datasets. results show that all overestimate annual cycle mean basins, although intermodel spread large, with CORDEX being closest observed values. Generally, interannual variability rainy days (RR1), maximum consecutive wet (CWD), heavy very (R10mm R20mm, respectively) seasons. Simple daily rainfall intensity (SDII) number dry (CDD) are generally underestimated. lowest Taylor skill scores (TSS) spatial correlation coefficients (SCC) depicted for CDD Limpopo compared other respectively. Additionally, exhibit highest normalized standard deviations (NSD) CWD indices. RCM lower better, respectively, than those GCM (except CDD). In particular, performs better CORE basins. Although ensemble biases often within range observations, statistically significant shown by underline need bias correction when these impact assessments.

Язык: Английский

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Exploring the influence of improved horizontal resolution on extreme precipitation in Southern Africa major river basins: insights from CMIP6 HighResMIP simulations

Climate Dynamics, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 62(8), С. 8099 - 8120

Опубликована: Июль 4, 2024

Язык: Английский

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