Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 129(12)

Опубликована: Июнь 21, 2024

Abstract While the Department of Defense (DoD) infrastructure is no stranger to extremes, recent events have been unprecedented, with climate change acting as a growing risk multiplier. To assess level exposure DoD installations extreme weather and events, site‐specific information needed. One way bridge scale gap between outputs from existing global models (GCMs) sites downscaling. This makes more relevant for impact assessment at installation facility scale. However, downscaling GCMs beset by myriad challenges sources uncertainty, methods were not designed specific planning design needs in mind. Here, we evaluate state‐of‐the‐science dynamical statistical bias correction variables (i.e., temperature precipitation) daily We also combine approaches novel ways optimize computational efficiency reduce uncertainty. Furthermore, examine sensitivity downscaled choice reference data quantify relative uncertainty related approach, data, other factors across aggregation scales. Results show that empirical quantile mapping (EQM), downscaling, consistently performs well has less data. Moreover, hybrid leverages EQM improves performance Our findings highlight dominates uncertainties while their role muted precipitation but still non‐negligible.

Язык: Английский