Determining the sustainability of legal wildlife trade

Journal of Environmental Management, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 341, С. 117987 - 117987

Опубликована: Май 11, 2023

Exploitation of wildlife represents one the greatest threats to species survival according Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services. Whilst detrimental impacts illegal trade are well recognised, legal is often equated being sustainable despite lack evidence or data in majority cases. We review sustainability trade, adequacy tools, safeguards, frameworks understand regulate identify gaps that undermine our ability truly trade. provide 183 examples showing unsustainable a broad range taxonomic groups. In most cases, neither nor supported by rigorous sustainability, with export levels population monitoring precluding true assessments population-level impacts. propose more precautionary approach requires those who profit from proof sustainability. then four core areas must be strengthened achieve this goal: (1) collection analyses populations; (2) linking quotas IUCN international accords; (3) improved databases compliance trade; (4) enhanced understanding bans, market forces, substitutions. Enacting these regulatory frameworks, including CITES, essential continued many threatened species. There no winners trade: without management not only will populations become extinct, but communities dependent upon lose livelihoods.

Язык: Английский

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Integrated Population Modeling Provides the First Empirical Estimates of Vital Rates and Abundance for Polar Bears in the Chukchi Sea

Scientific Reports, Год журнала: 2018, Номер 8(1)

Опубликована: Ноя. 8, 2018

Large carnivores are imperiled globally, and characteristics making them vulnerable to extinction (e.g., low densities expansive ranges) also make it difficult estimate demographic parameters needed for management. Here we develop an integrated population model analyze capture-recapture, radiotelemetry, count data the Chukchi Sea subpopulation of polar bears (Ursus maritimus), 2008-2016. Our addressed several challenges in capture-recapture studies by including a multievent structure reflecting location life history states, while accommodating state uncertainty. Female breeding probability was 0.83 (95% credible interval [CRI] = 0.71-0.90), with litter sizes 2.18 CRI 1.71-2.82) age-zero 1.61 1.46-1.80) age-one cubs. Total adult survival 0.90 0.86-0.92) females 0.89 0.83-0.93) males. Spring on-ice west Alaska were 0.0030 bears/km2 0.0016-0.0060), similar 1980s-era density estimates although methodological differences complicate comparison. Abundance subpopulation, derived extrapolating from study area using spatially-explicit habitat metric, 2,937 1,552-5,944). findings consistent other lines evidence suggesting has been productive recent years, is uncertain how long this will continue given sea-ice loss due climate change.

Язык: Английский

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Integrated population models: Model assumptions and inference

Methods in Ecology and Evolution, Год журнала: 2019, Номер 10(7), С. 1072 - 1082

Опубликована: Апрель 25, 2019

Abstract Integrated population models ( IPM s) have become increasingly popular for the modelling of populations, as investigators seek to combine survey and demographic data understand processes governing dynamics. These are particularly useful identifying exploring knowledge gaps within life histories, because they allow estimate biologically meaningful parameters, such immigration or reproduction, that were previously unidentifiable without additional data. As s been developed relatively recently, there is much learn about model behaviour. Behaviour estimates near boundaries, consequences varying degrees dependency among datasets, has explored. However, reliability parameter remains underexamined, when include parameters not identifiable from one source, but indirectly multiple datasets a presumed structure, estimation using capture‐recapture, fecundity count data, combined with life‐history model. To examine behaviour estimates, we simulated stable populations closed emigration. We two scenarios might induce error into survival estimates: marker induced bias in capture–mark–recapture heterogeneity mortality process. subsequently fit capture–mark–recapture, state‐space models, well estimated parameters. Simulation results suggested assumptions violated, additional, unidentifiable, may be extremely sensitive these violations assumption. For example, annual loss was simulated, rates low rate an high. When process induced, substantial relative differences between medians posterior distributions truth juvenile fecundity. Our important implications biological inference s, future development implementation. Specifically, identify resulted directly reflecting effects integrated frameworks. suggest interpret combination systematic error.

Язык: Английский

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Land‐use change increases climatic vulnerability of migratory birds: Insights from integrated population modelling

Journal of Animal Ecology, Год журнала: 2019, Номер 88(10), С. 1625 - 1637

Опубликована: Июнь 7, 2019

Abstract Knowledge of land‐use patterns that could affect animal population resiliency or vulnerability to environmental threats such as climate change is essential, yet the interactive effects land use and on demography across space time can be difficult study. This particularly true for migratory species, which rely different landscapes throughout year. Unlike most North American waterfowl, populations northern pintails ( Anas acuta ; hereafter pintails) have not recovered since 1980s despite extended periods abundant flooded wetlands (i.e. ponds). The mechanisms drivers involved in this discrepancy remain poorly understood. While are similar other ducks their dependence ponds annual cycle, extensive croplands nesting differentiates them makes vulnerable changes agricultural prairie breeding grounds. Our intent was quantify how grounds influenced pintail dynamics by developing an integrated model analyse over five decades (1961–2014) band‐recovery, survey, pond count data. We focused especially counts productivity, while accounting density‐dependent processes. Pintail responded more strongly variation productivity than survival. Productivity positively correlated with negatively intensification. Further, a positive interaction between intensification insufficient overcome strong negative effect nearly all counts. also indicated were impacted decrease associated under higher results indicate become intensified use, suggests future conservation strategies must adapt these altered relationships. should considered frequently ecology, models provide adaptable framework understand vital rates simultaneously.

Язык: Английский

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Towards vibrant fish populations and sustainable fisheries that benefit all: learning from the last 30 years to inform the next 30 years

Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 33(2), С. 317 - 347

Опубликована: Март 4, 2023

A common goal among fisheries science professionals, stakeholders, and rights holders is to ensure the persistence resilience of vibrant fish populations sustainable, equitable in diverse aquatic ecosystems, from small headwater streams offshore pelagic waters. Achieving this requires a complex intersection management, recognition interconnections people, place, that govern these tightly coupled socioecological sociotechnical systems. The World Fisheries Congress (WFC) convenes every four years provides unique global forum debate discuss threats, issues, opportunities facing fisheries. 2021 WFC meeting, hosted remotely Adelaide, Australia, marked 30th year since first meeting was held Athens, Greece, provided an opportunity reflect on progress made past 30 provide guidance for future. We assembled team individuals involved with Adelaide reflected major challenges faced over years, discussed toward overcoming those challenges, then used themes emerged during identify issues improve sustainability world's next years. Key future needs identified include: rethinking management systems modelling approaches, modernizing integrating assessment information systems, being responsive flexible addressing persistent emerging threats fisheries, mainstreaming human dimension governance, policy compliance, achieving equity inclusion also number cross-cutting including better understanding role as nutrition hungry world, adapting climate change, embracing transdisciplinarity, respecting Indigenous knowledge thinking ahead foresight science, working together across scales. By reflecting about future, we aim our mutual sustaining sustainable benefit all. hope prospective can serve guide (i) assess towards lofty (ii) refine path input new voices approaches stewardship.

Язык: Английский

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An integrated population model reveals source‐sink dynamics for competitively subordinate African wild dogs linked to anthropogenic prey depletion

Journal of Animal Ecology, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 93(4), С. 417 - 427

Опубликована: Фев. 4, 2024

Abstract Many African large carnivore populations are declining due to decline of the herbivore on which they depend. The densities apex carnivores like lion and spotted hyena correlate strongly with prey density, but competitively subordinate wild dog benefit from competitive release when density is low, so expected effect a simultaneous decrease in resources dominant competitors not obvious. Wild dogs Zambia's South Luangwa Valley Ecosystem occupy four ecologically similar areas well‐described differences spatial variation illegal offtake. We used long‐term monitoring data fit Bayesian integrated population model (IPM) demography dynamics these regions. IPM Leslie projection link Cormack–Jolly–Seber area‐specific survival (allowing for individual heterogeneity detection), zero‐inflated Poisson fecundity state‐space size that estimates closed mark–capture as counts (latent) was estimated. showed both reproduction were lowest region preferred (puku, Kobus vardonii impala, Aepyceros melampus ), despite little use this area by lions. Survival highest intermediate two regions density. growth rate () positive whole, negative It has long been thought benefits protect costs low Our results show depletion overwhelm cause local where anthropogenic strong. Because competition important many guilds humans affecting types, it likely similarly fundamental shifts limitation arising systems.

Язык: Английский

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Using citizen science data in integrated population models to inform conservation

Biological Conservation, Год журнала: 2018, Номер 227, С. 361 - 368

Опубликована: Окт. 6, 2018

Язык: Английский

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Integrated modeling predicts shifts in waterbird population dynamics under climate change

Ecography, Год журнала: 2019, Номер 42(9), С. 1470 - 1481

Опубликована: Май 7, 2019

Climate change has been identified as one of the most important drivers wildlife population dynamics. The in‐depth knowledge complex relationships between climate and sizes through density dependent demographic processes is for understanding predicting shifts under change, which requires integrated models (IPMs) that unify analyses demography abundance data. In this study we developed an IPM based on Gaussian approximation to dynamic N‐mixture large scale We then analyzed four decades (1972–2013) mallard Anas platyrhynchos breeding survey, band‐recovery data covering a spatial extent from North American prairies boreal habitat Alaska. aimed test hypothesis will cause in dynamics if climatic effects parameters have substantial contribution growth vary spatially. More specifically, examined variation demography, key are influential growth, forecasted responses change. Our results revealed recruitment, explained more variance than survival, was sensitive temporal precipitation southern portion area but not north. Survival, by contrast, insensitive variation. decrease south increase northwestern area, indicating potential future implied different strategies need be considered across regions conserve waterfowl populations face modelling approach can adapted other species thus wide application presence global

Язык: Английский

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Close‐kin methods to estimate census size and effective population size

Fish and Fisheries, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 23(2), С. 273 - 293

Опубликована: Окт. 20, 2021

Abstract The last two decades have witnessed rapid developments and increasing interest in use of: (1) genetic methods to estimate effective population size ( N e ) (2) close‐kin mark–recapture (CKMR) abundance based on the incidence of close relatives. Whereas estimation been applied a wide range taxa, all CKMR applications date for aquatic species. These fields inquiry developed largely independently, this is unfortunate because deeper insights can be gained by joint evaluation eco‐evolutionary processes. In synthesis, we simple analytical models simulated pedigree data illustrate how various factors (life‐history traits; patterns variation individual reproductive success; experimental design; stochasticity; marker type) affect performance estimators. We show that / ratio probability match both depend vector parental weights specify relative probabilities different individuals will produce offspring. Although age‐specific vital rates are central methodologies, they potentially bias estimates unless properly accounted for, whereas represent signals drift upon. Coordinating using same or overlapping datasets would facilitate ecological evolutionary consequences abundance.

Язык: Английский

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Contributions from terrestrial and marine resources stabilize predator populations in a rapidly changing climate

Ecosphere, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 12(6)

Опубликована: Июнь 1, 2021

Abstract Climate change has different and sometimes divergent effects on terrestrial marine food webs, in coastal ecosystems, these are tightly interlinked. Responses of opportunistic predators scavengers to climate may thus be complex potentially highly flexible, can simultaneously serve as indicators of, have profound impacts on, lower trophic levels. Gaining mechanistic understanding responses is therefore important, but often not feasible due lack long‐term data from marked individuals. Here, we used a Bayesian integrated population model (IPM) elucidate the arctic warming concurrent changes resource availability dynamics fox ( Vulpes lagopus ) Svalbard. Joint analysis four types (den survey, age‐at‐harvest, placental scars, mark‐recovery) revealed relatively stable size age structure over last 22 yr (1997–2019) despite rapid environmental linked warming. This was related fact that resources (reindeer carcasses, geese) became more abundant while (seal pups/carrion) decreased, driven by trends vital rates (e.g., increased pregnancy rate decreased pup survival). Balanced contributions survival vs. reproduction immigration local demography further stabilized size. Our study sheds light mechanisms underlying carnivores exploiting suggests exploitation across ecosystems buffer against change. Additionally, it highlights large potential IPMs tools understand predict wildlife populations, even when individuals sparse.

Язык: Английский

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