Drivers and Impacts of the Record-Breaking 2023 Wildfire Season in Canada

Nature Communications, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 15(1)

Опубликована: Авг. 20, 2024

Abstract The 2023 wildfire season in Canada was unprecedented its scale and intensity, spanning from mid-April to late October across much of the forested regions Canada. Here, we summarize main causes impacts this exceptional season. record-breaking total area burned (~15 Mha) can be attributed several environmental factors that converged early season: snowmelt, multiannual drought conditions western Canada, rapid transition eastern Anthropogenic climate change enabled sustained extreme fire weather conditions, as mean May–October temperature over 2.2 °C warmer than 1991–2020 average. were profound with more 200 communities evacuated, millions exposed hazardous air quality smoke, unmatched demands on fire-fighting resources. not only set new records, but highlights increasing challenges posed by wildfires

Язык: Английский

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State of Wildfires 2023–2024

Earth system science data, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 16(8), С. 3601 - 3685

Опубликована: Авг. 13, 2024

Abstract. Climate change contributes to the increased frequency and intensity of wildfires globally, with significant impacts on society environment. However, our understanding global distribution extreme fires remains skewed, primarily influenced by media coverage regionalised research efforts. This inaugural State Wildfires report systematically analyses fire activity worldwide, identifying events from March 2023–February 2024 season. We assess causes, predictability, attribution these climate land use forecast future risks under different scenarios. During 2023–2024 season, 3.9×106 km2 burned slightly below average previous seasons, but carbon (C) emissions were 16 % above average, totalling 2.4 Pg C. Global C record in Canadian boreal forests (over 9 times average) reduced low African savannahs. Notable included record-breaking extent Canada, largest recorded wildfire European Union (Greece), drought-driven western Amazonia northern parts South America, deadly Hawaii (100 deaths) Chile (131 deaths). Over 232 000 people evacuated Canada alone, highlighting severity human impact. Our revealed that multiple drivers needed cause areas activity. In Greece, a combination high weather an abundance dry fuels probability fires, whereas area anomalies weaker regions lower fuel loads higher direct suppression, particularly Canada. Fire prediction showed mild anomalous signal 1 2 months advance, Greece had shorter predictability horizons. Attribution indicated modelled up 40 %, 18 50 due during respectively. Meanwhile, seasons magnitudes has significantly anthropogenic change, 2.9–3.6-fold increase likelihood 20.0–28.5-fold Amazonia. By end century, similar magnitude 2023 are projected occur 6.3–10.8 more frequently medium–high emission scenario (SSP370). represents first annual effort catalogue events, explain their occurrence, predict risks. consolidating state-of-the-art science delivering key insights relevant policymakers, disaster management services, firefighting agencies, managers, we aim enhance society's resilience promote advances preparedness, mitigation, adaptation. New datasets presented this work available https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11400539 (Jones et al., 2024) https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11420742 (Kelley 2024a).

Язык: Английский

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Assessing the 2023 Canadian wildfire smoke impact in Northeastern US: Air quality, exposure and environmental justice

The Science of The Total Environment, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 926, С. 171853 - 171853

Опубликована: Март 23, 2024

Язык: Английский

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2023: Weather and Climate Extremes Hitting the Globe with Emerging Features

Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 41(6), С. 1001 - 1016

Опубликована: Апрель 17, 2024

Globally, 2023 was the warmest observed year on record since at least 1850 and, according to proxy evidence, possibly of past 100 000 years. As in recent years, warmth has again been accompanied with yet more extreme weather and climate events throughout world. Here, we provide an overview those 2023, details key background causes help build upon our understanding roles internal variability anthropogenic change. We also highlight emerging features associated some these events. Hot extremes are occurring earlier year, increasingly simultaneously differing parts world (e.g., concurrent hot Northern Hemisphere July 2023). Intense cyclones exacerbating precipitation North China flooding Libya September). Droughts regions California Horn Africa) have transitioned into flood conditions. Climate show increasing interactions ecosystems via wildfires Hawaii August Canada from spring autumn 2023) sandstorms Mongolia April Finally, consider challenges research that characteristics present for strategy practice adaptation.

Язык: Английский

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El Niño and the AMO Sparked the Astonishingly Large Margin of Warming in the Global Mean Surface Temperature in 2023

Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 41(6), С. 1017 - 1022

Опубликована: Янв. 11, 2024

Язык: Английский

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Canada Under Fire – Drivers and Impacts of the Record-Breaking 2023 Wildfire Season

Authorea (Authorea), Год журнала: 2024, Номер unknown

Опубликована: Фев. 28, 2024

The 2023 wildfire season in Canada was unprecedented its scale and intensity. Spanning from late April to early November extending across much of the forested regions Canada, resulted a record-breaking total area burned approximately 15 million hectares, over seven times historic national annual average. impacts were profound with more than 200 communities evacuated (approximately 232,000 people), periods dense smoke that caused significant public health concerns, demands on fire-fighting resources. exceptional can be attributed several environmental factors converged enable extreme fire danger country. These included snowmelt, interannual drought conditions western rapid transition eastern Canada. Furthermore, mean May-October temperature staggering 2.2°C warmer normal (1991-2020), enabling sustained weather throughout season. led larger proportion very large fires (> 50,000 hectares), many having for months spring into fall. Fires started May or June accounted two-thirds burned. Overall, characterized by major societal impacts, setting new records highlighting increasing challenges posed wildfires

Язык: Английский

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Extreme wildfires in Canada and their contribution to global loss in tree cover and carbon emissions in 2023

Global Change Biology, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 30(6)

Опубликована: Июнь 1, 2024

Abstract Canadian wildfires in 2023 were record breaking with wide‐reaching impacts on people, nature, and climate. Extreme heat low rainfall associated climate change led to unprecedented forest fires that released enormous amounts of carbon as they burned. This study used data fire‐driven tree cover loss fluxes estimate the total extent stand‐replacing their emissions. We found burned nearly 7.8 million hectares accounted for more than a quarter all globally. Furthermore, forests impacted by emitted 3 billion tons CO 2 or about 25% primary tropical year. These results have important implications global budgets because emissions from these will largely be excluded official greenhouse gas reporting.

Язык: Английский

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Integrated fire management as an adaptation and mitigation strategy to altered fire regimes

Communications Earth & Environment, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 6(1)

Опубликована: Март 15, 2025

Abstract Altered fire regimes are a global challenge, increasingly exacerbated by climate change, which modifies weather and prolongs seasons. These changing conditions heighten the vulnerability of ecosystems human populations to impacts wildfires on environment, society, economy. The rapid pace these changes exposes significant gaps in knowledge, tools, technology, governance structures needed adopt informed, holistic approaches management that address both current future challenges. Integrated Fire Management is an approach combines prevention, response, recovery while integrating ecological, socio-economic, cultural factors into strategies. However, remains highly context-dependent, encompassing wide array practices with varying degrees ecological societal integration. This review explores as adaptation mitigation strategy for altered regimes. It provides overview progress challenges associated implementing across different regions worldwide. also proposes five core objectives outlines roadmap incremental steps advancing adapt ongoing regimes, thereby maximizing its potential benefit people nature.

Язык: Английский

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Continuous wildfires threaten public and ecosystem health under climate change across continents

Frontiers of Environmental Science & Engineering, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 18(10)

Опубликована: Июль 18, 2024

Abstract Wildfires burn approximately 3%–4% of the global land area annually, resulting in massive emissions greenhouse gases and air pollutants. Over past two decades, there has been a declining trend both burned wildfire emissions. This is largely attributed to decrease activity Africa, which accounts for substantial portion total However, northern high-latitude regions Asia North America have witnessed interannual variability activity, with several severe events occurring recent years. Climate plays pivotal role influencing led more wildfires regions. These pose significant threats climate, ecosystems, human health. Given changes patterns their impacts, it critical understand contributors wildfires, focus on deteriorating areas, address health risks poorly managed areas mitigate effects.

Язык: Английский

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Data Augmentation Strategies for Improved PM2.5 Forecasting Using Transformer Architectures

Atmosphere, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 16(2), С. 127 - 127

Опубликована: Янв. 24, 2025

Breathing in fine particulate matter of diameter less than 2.5 µm (PM2.5) greatly increases an individual’s risk cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. As climate change progresses, extreme weather events, including wildfires, are expected to increase, exacerbating air pollution. However, models often struggle capture pollution events due the rarity high PM2.5 levels training datasets. To address this, we implemented cluster-based undersampling trained Transformer improve event prediction using various cutoff thresholds (12.1 µg/m3 35.5 µg/m3) partial sampling ratios (10/90, 20/80, 30/70, 40/60, 50/50). Our results demonstrate that threshold, paired with a 20/80 ratio, achieved best performance, RMSE 2.080, MAE 1.386, R2 0.914, particularly excelling forecasting events. Overall, on augmented data significantly outperformed those original data, highlighting importance resampling techniques improving quality accuracy, especially for high-pollution scenarios. These findings provide critical insights into optimizing models, enabling more reliable predictions By advancing ability forecast levels, this study contributes development informed public health environmental policies mitigate impacts pollution, advanced technology building better digital twins.

Язык: Английский

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