Regional climate downscaling over Europe: perspectives from the EURO-CORDEX community

Regional Environmental Change, Год журнала: 2020, Номер 20(2)

Опубликована: Апрель 23, 2020

Abstract The European CORDEX (EURO-CORDEX) initiative is a large voluntary effort that seeks to advance regional climate and Earth system science in Europe. As part of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) - Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), it shares broader goals providing model evaluation projection framework improving communication with both General Circulation Model (GCM) data user communities. EURO-CORDEX oversees design coordination ongoing ensembles projections unprecedented size resolution (0.11° EUR-11 0.44° EUR-44 domains). Additionally, inclusion empirical-statistical downscaling allows investigation much larger multi-model ensembles. These complementary approaches provide foundation for scientific studies within research community others. value ensemble shown via numerous peer-reviewed its use development services. Evaluations also show benefits higher resolution. However, significant challenges remain. To further understanding, two flagship pilot (FPS) were initiated. first investigates local-regional phenomena at convection-permitting scales over central Europe Mediterranean collaboration Med-CORDEX community. second impacts land cover changes on across spatial temporal scales. Over coming years, looks forward closer other communities, new advances, supporting international initiatives such as IPCC reports, continuing basis adaptation

Язык: Английский

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Future heat waves over the Mediterranean from an Euro-CORDEX regional climate model ensemble

Scientific Reports, Год журнала: 2020, Номер 10(1)

Опубликована: Май 29, 2020

Abstract Heat waves are among the most relevant extreme climatic events due to their effects on society, agriculture and environment. The aim of this work is improve our understanding heat over Mediterranean basin during 21 st century from an ensemble Regional Climate Models (RCMs). Focus has been placed sensitivities forcing global models, emissions scenarios RCM resolution, being first based Euro-CORDEX simulations fully analyze future in Mediterranean. wave features studied with Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI, duration) Wave Magnitude daily (HWMId, intensity). Results indicate a large increase by end both intensity length all scenarios, regional models at any resolution. Exceptional observed early could then become normal period. Forcing play major role. Clear added value spatial distribution indices obtained dynamical downscaling, related important coastal or orographic aspects widely present

Язык: Английский

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Saharan air intrusions as a relevant mechanism for Iberian heatwaves: The record breaking events of August 2018 and June 2019

Weather and Climate Extremes, Год журнала: 2019, Номер 26, С. 100224 - 100224

Опубликована: Сен. 14, 2019

The summers of 2018 and 2019 were characterized by unusually warm conditions over Europe. Here, we describe the intense heatwaves striking Iberian Peninsula in early August late June 2019. episode was relatively short-lived but outstanding amplitude, particularly western Iberia. Similar to previous mega-heatwaves, event long-lasting affected large areas central Europe, including eastern During these events, many absolute temperature records broken Iberia, respectively (some them standing since 2003). In both cases, a cyclonic circulation off coast northeastern Atlantic strong subtropical ridge pattern area promoted advection an anomalously air mass. This paper highlights role very warm, stable dry intrusions Saharan origin Iberia heatwave events. Using thermodynamical classification based on geopotential height thickness potential temperature, show how magnitude poleward extension unprecedented period 1948. relationship between is discussed long-term context, showing closer link southern sectors Peninsula. However, consistent trend latitudinal reveals their increasing relevance for northern overall accompanied apparent "see-saw" occurrence multi-decadal scales.

Язык: Английский

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Assessing impacts of future climate change on extreme fire weather and pyro-regions in Iberian Peninsula

The Science of The Total Environment, Год журнала: 2020, Номер 754, С. 142233 - 142233

Опубликована: Сен. 6, 2020

Язык: Английский

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Future surface temperatures over Europe according to CMIP6 climate projections: an analysis with original and bias-corrected data

Climatic Change, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 167(1-2)

Опубликована: Июль 1, 2021

Язык: Английский

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Water scarcity down to earth surface in a Mediterranean climate: The extreme future of soil moisture in Portugal

Journal of Hydrology, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 615, С. 128731 - 128731

Опубликована: Ноя. 8, 2022

Climate change constitutes a major threat for all the Mediterranean countries due to combination of large precipitation reductions and temperature increases higher frequency climate extremes, especially driving water scarcity derived multi-sectoral impacts. Portugal, as most countries, already endures larger frequencies droughts deficits in soil moisture storage. In current study, future projections are examined using multi-model EURO-CORDEX regional ensemble, agreement with three emission scenarios (RCP2.6, 4.5 8.5). The drivers dynamics also analysed its effect on relative humidity evaporation rates. As expected, show clear reduction through entire annual cycle, response decrease increase, via massive growth potential evapotranspiration. overall total decreases ranges from −5% RCP2.6 −20% (-10%) RCP8.5 (RCP4.5), w.r.t. present climate. historical period, rarely reach values 3x over standard deviation, but reveal that RCP4.5 (RCP8.5) mid-century up 5x (6x) projected occur, end-of-century even 7x RCP8.5. cycle is determined by evapotranspiration, deficit both enhanced covers wider monthly window future, surface importantly, −4% −8% spring summer end-of-the-century, RCP8.5, respectively. Resulting changes typical semi-arid climate, which confined small south-eastern region expected cover almost 2/3 mainland case Finally, this study was developed framework National Roadmap Adaptation XXI - Portuguese Territorial Change Vulnerability Assessment Century (RNA2100) project aims at delivering deeper different featuring terrestrial adaptation purposes country.

Язык: Английский

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The compound event that triggered the destructive fires of October 2017 in Portugal

iScience, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 26(3), С. 106141 - 106141

Опубликована: Фев. 4, 2023

Portugal is regularly affected by destructive wildfires that have severe social, economic, and ecological impacts. The total burnt area in 2017 (∼540,000 ha) marked the all-time record value since 1980 with a tragic toll of 114 fatalities occurred June October events. local insurance sector declared it was costliest natural disaster payouts exceeding USD295 million. Here, event, responsible for more than 200,000 ha 50 analyzed from compound perspective. A prolonged drought led to preconditioned cumulative hydric stress vegetation 2017. In addition, on 15 2017, two other major drivers played critical role: 1) passage hurricane Ophelia off Coast Portugal, exceptional meteorological conditions 2) human agent, an extremely elevated number negligent ignitions. This disastrous combination anthropogenic uncontrolled observed October.

Язык: Английский

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A multi-variable constrained ensemble of regional climate projections under multi-scenarios for Portugal – Part II: Sectoral climate indices

Climate Services, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 30, С. 100377 - 100377

Опубликована: Апрель 1, 2023

Climate indices are developed to determine climate impacts on different socioeconomic sectors, providing a comprehensive communication of complex information arising from change assessments. These may be used by decision-makers properly and timely implement adaptation measures in sectors human activity, such as agriculture crop selection, forest, coastal management, among others. Here, we present analysis estimated for Portugal, known hotspot. A multi-variable 13-member ensemble EURO-CORDEX Regional Model simulations is assess future projections indices, exploring three scenarios until 2100, considering emission scenarios, namely the RCP2.6, RCP4.5 RCP8.5. Aligned with warming drying projected conditions, an increase number summer days very hot expected become more frequent intense, impact over interior regions. Tropical nights common, affecting thermal comfort conditions threatening health. Although show overall reduction wet days, amount precipitation during short-time periods will leading intensification moderate/heavy rainfall. results corroborate that Portugal hotspot, calling efficient policymaking relevant authorities. Indeed, call urgent planning development safeguard critical Portuguese society, agriculture, forests,

Язык: Английский

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A multi-variable constrained ensemble of regional climate projections under multi-scenarios for Portugal – Part I: An overview of impacts on means and extremes

Climate Services, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 30, С. 100351 - 100351

Опубликована: Фев. 1, 2023

Climate projections are a powerful tool that can help decision makers to timely prepare adaptation policies, which may then be efficiently implemented. In this study, comprehensive analysis of how climate change affect Portugal (located in hotspot) is conducted, providing the foundations first National Roadmap for Adaptation 2100. A multi-variable ensemble was built and tested, being baseline assessing future three different emission scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) throughout 21st century, accounting model's ability simulate set variables. warmer drier projected mainland, more severe interior regions. Even optimistic RCP2.6 scenario, results indicate increases temperature between 1 2 °C comparison with historical period surpass 6 some regions RCP8.5. Extreme hot events will frequent severe, maximum temperatures above 45 common century. decline precipitation expected mostly summer intermediate seasons, losses 40 % end-of-century. However, an intensification heavy short-term rainfall increase northern rising wind gusts also these Such call urgent planning measures safeguard critical sectors Portuguese society. Finally, information here produced examined constitutes key example services mitigation Portugal.

Язык: Английский

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High-resolution downscaling of CMIP6 Earth system and global climate models using deep learning for Iberia

Geoscientific model development, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 17(1), С. 229 - 259

Опубликована: Янв. 12, 2024

Abstract. Deep learning (DL) methods have recently garnered attention from the climate change community for being an innovative approach to downscaling variables Earth system and global models (ESGCMs) with horizontal resolutions still too coarse represent regional- local-scale phenomena. In context of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6), ESGCM simulations were conducted Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) at ranging 0.70 3.75∘. Here, four convolutional neural network (CNN) architectures evaluated their ability downscale, a resolution 0.1∘, seven CMIP6 ESGCMs over Iberian Peninsula – known hotspot, due its increased vulnerability projected future warming drying conditions. The study is divided into three stages: (1) evaluating performance CNN in predicting mean, minimum, maximum temperatures, as well daily precipitation, trained using ERA5 data compared Iberia01 observational dataset; (2) further ensemble against Iberia01; (3) constructing multi-model CNN-based downscaled projections temperature precipitation 0.1∘ throughout 21st century under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios. Upon validation satisfactory evaluation, DL demonstrate overall agreement magnitude sign changes. Moreover, advantages high-resolution are evident, offering substantial added value representing regional Iberia. Notably, clear trend observed Iberia, consistent previous studies this area, increases 2 ∘C, depending scenario. Regarding robust decreases western southwestern particularly after 2040. These results may offer new tool providing information adaptation strategies based prior next European branch Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (EURO-CORDEX) experiments.

Язык: Английский

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