Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points

Science, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 377(6611)

Опубликована: Сен. 8, 2022

Climate tipping points occur when change in a part of the climate system becomes self-perpetuating beyond warming threshold, leading to substantial Earth impacts. Synthesizing paleoclimate, observational, and model-based studies, we provide revised shortlist global "core" elements regional "impact" their temperature thresholds. Current ~1.1°C above preindustrial temperatures already lies within lower end some point uncertainty ranges. Several may be triggered Paris Agreement range 1.5 <2°C warming, with many more likely at 2 3°C expected on current policy trajectories. This strengthens evidence base for urgent action mitigate develop improved risk assessment, early warning capability, adaptation strategies.

Язык: Английский

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Extreme climate events in sub-Saharan Africa: A call for improving agricultural technology transfer to enhance adaptive capacity

Climate Services, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 27, С. 100311 - 100311

Опубликована: Июль 31, 2022

This study seeks to provide a critical overview of the existing evidence on extreme climate events and adaptation options affected population in order help scholars navigate field. The examined recent that occurred Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), change mentioned literature, need for international technological transfer SSA. 181 peer-reviewed publications were evaluated following topics: 1) impacts extremes SSA; 2) discussed literature region; 3) analysis needs gaps technology SSA, 4) various impact areas adaptive capacity major finding from this is have been observed region, with many leading reductions crop yield qualities quantities, much greater smallholder farmers' livelihoods SSA countries. Based these findings conceptual framework proposed which summarises agriculture food systems concluded there are new countries can adopt developed countries, agricultural needed facilitate better

Язык: Английский

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Understanding climate change impacts on drought in China over the 21st century: a multi-model assessment from CMIP6

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 7(1)

Опубликована: Янв. 30, 2024

Abstract The future state of drought in China under climate change remains uncertain. This study investigates events, focusing on the region China, using simulations from five global models (GCMs) three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) participating Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3b). daily Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) is employed to analyze severity, duration, frequency over periods. Evaluation GCMs’ against observational data indicates their effectiveness capturing historical climatic across China. rapid increase CO 2 concentration high-emission scenarios mid- late-future century (2040–2070 2071–2100) substantially influences vegetation behavior via regulation leaf stomata canopy structure. decelerates potential evapotranspiration, thereby mitigating sharp rise occurrences These findings offer valuable insights for policymakers stakeholders develop strategies measures adapting conditions

Язык: Английский

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Future Changes in Precipitation Extremes over East Africa Based on CMIP6 Models

Water, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 13(17), С. 2358 - 2358

Опубликована: Авг. 27, 2021

This paper presents an analysis of projected precipitation extremes over the East African region. The study employs six indices defined by Expert Team on Climate Change Detection Indices to evaluate extreme precipitation. Observed datasets and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase (CMIP6) simulations are employed assess changes during two main rainfall seasons: March May (MAM) October December (OND). results show increase in consecutive dry days (CDD) decrease wet (CWD) towards end 21st century (2081–2100) relative baseline period (1995–2014) both seasons. Moreover, simple daily intensity (SDII), very (R95 p), heavy >20 mm (R20 mm), total wet-day (PRCPTOT) demonstrate significant OND compared MAM season. spatial variation for incidences shows likely intensification Uganda most parts Kenya, while a reduction is observed Tanzania may pose serious threat sustainability societal infrastructure ecosystem wellbeing. from these analyses present opportunity understand emergence events capability model outputs CMIP6 estimating changes. More studies recommended examine underlying physical features modulating occurrence relevant policies.

Язык: Английский

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Projected changes in meteorological drought over East Africa inferred from bias-adjusted CMIP6 models

Natural Hazards, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 113(2), С. 1151 - 1176

Опубликована: Апрель 9, 2022

Язык: Английский

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Projected changes in extreme rainfall and temperature events and possible implications for Cameroon's socio‐economic sectors

Meteorological Applications, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 30(2)

Опубликована: Март 1, 2023

Abstract Extreme events like flooding, droughts and heatwave are among the factors causing huge socio‐economic losses to Cameroonians. Investigating potential response of rainfall temperature extremes global warming is therefore critically needed for tailoring adjusting country's policies. Recent datasets have been developed this purpose within Coordinated Output Regional Evaluations (CORDEX‐CORE) initiative, at ~25 km grid spacing. These regional climate models were used dynamically downscaled four participating in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5), under optimistic pessimistic representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 2.6 8.5, respectively. employed study characterizing Cameroon's extreme precipitation warming, using seven indices defined by Expert Team on Climate Change Detection Indices. Under maximum number consecutive dry (wet) days' expected increase (decrease). However, annual total amount increase, mainly due intensification very wet days daily intensity. Furthermore, temperature‐based reveal an (decrease) hot (cold) days, overall, changes intensify with increased radiative forcing. The high‐mitigated low‐emission pathway RCP2.6 features attenuated changes, even sometimes adapts reverse sign changes. Designing reliable policies limit risks associated above required, as their consequences likely include food insecurity, heat‐related illness, population impoverishment, price rises market instability.

Язык: Английский

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Understanding the connections between climate change, air pollution, and human health in Africa: Insights from a literature review

Journal of Environmental Science and Health Part C, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 41(3-4), С. 77 - 120

Опубликована: Окт. 2, 2023

Climate change and air pollution are two interconnected global challenges that have profound impacts on human health. In Africa, a continent known for its rich biodiversity diverse ecosystems, the adverse effects of climate particularly concerning. This review study examines implications health well-being in Africa. It explores intersection these factors their impact various outcomes, including cardiovascular disease, respiratory disorders, mental health, vulnerable populations such as children elderly. The highlights disproportionate groups emphasizes need targeted interventions policies to protect Furthermore, it discusses role exacerbating potential long-term consequences public also addresses importance considering temperature precipitation changes modifiers pollution. By synthesizing existing research, this aims shed light complex relationships highlight key findings, knowledge gaps, solutions mitigating region. insights gained from can inform evidence-based mitigate promote sustainable development

Язык: Английский

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Projected changes in extreme climate events over Africa under 1.5°C, 2.0°C and 3.0°C global warming levels based on CMIP6 projections

Atmospheric Research, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 292, С. 106872 - 106872

Опубликована: Июнь 16, 2023

Язык: Английский

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Projections of Future Climate Change in Southern Africa and the Potential for Regional Tipping Points

Ecological studies, Год журнала: 2024, Номер unknown, С. 169 - 190

Опубликована: Янв. 1, 2024

Язык: Английский

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Modeling of Precipitation over Africa: Progress, Challenges, and Prospects

Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, Год журнала: 2025, Номер unknown

Опубликована: Янв. 9, 2025

Abstract In recent years, there has been an increasing need for climate information across diverse sectors of society. This demand arisen from the necessity to adapt and mitigate impacts variability change. Likewise, this period seen a significant increase in our understanding physical processes mechanisms that drive precipitation its different regions Africa. By leveraging large volume model outputs, numerous studies have investigated representation African as well underlying processes. These assessed whether are depicted models fit informing mitigation adaptation strategies. paper provides review progress simulation over Africa state-of-the-science discusses major issues challenges remain.

Язык: Английский

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