Identifying Weather Patterns Associated with Increased Volcanic Ash Risk within British Isles Airspace DOI Creative Commons
Samuel R. Harrison, James O. Pope, Robert A. Neal

и другие.

Weather and Forecasting, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 37(7), С. 1157 - 1168

Опубликована: Апрель 26, 2022

Abstract Icelandic volcanic emissions have been shown historically and more recently to an impact on public health aviation across northern western Europe. The severity of these impacts is governed by the prevailing weather conditions nature eruption. This study focuses former utilizing existing set 30 patterns produced Met Office. Associated daily historical classifications are used assess which most likely result in flow from Iceland into four flight information regions (FIRs) covering British Isles North Atlantic, may lead disruption during episodes. High-risk vary between FIRs, with a total 14 impacting at least one FIR. These high-risk types predominantly northwesterly or westerly airspace. Analysis reveals typical duration for periods 3–5 days, when transitions considered. lasting over week also possible all FIRs. Additionally, winter months Knowledge can be within operational probabilistic pattern forecasting tools. Combined probabilities derived medium-range (1–2 weeks ahead) provide rapid assessment as likelihood Iceland. application illustrated using archived forecast data 2010 Eyjafjallajökull

Язык: Английский

An Overview of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture and Their Mitigation Strategies DOI Creative Commons

Farhana Bibi,

M. Azizur Rahman

Agriculture, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 13(8), С. 1508 - 1508

Опубликована: Июль 27, 2023

In recent years, the adverse effect of climate change on soil properties in agricultural sector has become a dreadful reality worldwide. Climate change-induced abiotic stresses such as salinity, drought and temperature fluctuations are devastating crops’ physiological responses, productivity overall yield, which is ultimately posing serious threat to global food security agroecosystems. The applications chemical fertilizers pesticides contribute towards further deterioration rapid changes climate. Therefore, more careful, eco-friendly sustainable strategies required mitigate impact climate-induced damage sector. This paper reviews recently reported damaging impacts various crops, along with two emerging mitigation strategies, biochar biostimulants, light studies focusing combating worsening deteriorated environment yields, environment. Here, we highlighted agriculture applying an aim protecting soil,

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

77

Tropospheric ozone and NOx: A review of worldwide variation and meteorological influences DOI Creative Commons

Duy-Hieu Nguyen,

Chitsan Lin, Chi Thanh Vu

и другие.

Environmental Technology & Innovation, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 28, С. 102809 - 102809

Опубликована: Июль 9, 2022

Tropospheric ozone (O3) has increased globally since the end of 20th century. Its formation undergoes complicated photochemical reactions and processes in lower boundary layer. As a result, changes O3 levels are not about one specific factor but combined process other effects such as anthropogenic emissions, topographic characteristics, meteorological influences. Consequently, published studies often show conflicting findings on levels. NOx is significant precursors generated during combustion processes. Therefore, despite efforts emission controls, reducing will guarantee downward trend. Furthermore, weather phenomena (e.g., anticyclones sea–land breezes) can enhance parameters that govern transport diffusion precursors. The review summarizes current knowledge emissions recent years. It helps to understand how regional features influence its precursors, which beneficial for efficient surface evaluation control.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

73

Interplay between climate change and climate variability: the 2022 drought in Central South America DOI Creative Commons
Paola A. Arias, Juan Antonio Rivera, Anna A. Sörensson

и другие.

Climatic Change, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 177(1)

Опубликована: Дек. 21, 2023

Abstract Since 2019, Central South America (CSA) has been reeling under drought conditions, with the last 4 months of 2022 receiving only 44% average total precipitation. Simultaneously to drought, a series record-breaking heat waves affected region. The rainfall deficit during October–November-December (OND) is highly correlated Niño3.4 index, indicating that OND partly driven by La Niña, as observed in previous droughts this To identify whether human-induced climate change was also driver deficit, we analysed precipitation over most impacted Our findings revealed pattern decreased past 40 years, although cannot definitively conclude trend exceeds what would be expected from natural variations. clarify if can attributed change, looked at 1-in-20-year low events same region models. models show severity decreases (i.e. they become wetter, opposite weather records), again not significant and compatible variability. Therefore, attribute change. Moreover, our analysis effective potential (evapotranspiration minus rainfall) shows that, models, increase temperature does compensate for but offset wetting, lead signal However, higher temperatures region, which have water availability late 2022, probably reduced period observations, increasing agricultural study did quantify effect. This means even though within variability, consequences are becoming more severe due strong extreme heat. case ongoing CSA clear example interplay between variability importance considering those aspects associated order understand particular or trends regional level.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

35

Identification of weather patterns and transitions likely to cause power outages in the United Kingdom DOI Creative Commons
Laiz Souto, Robert A. Neal, James O. Pope

и другие.

Communications Earth & Environment, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 5(1)

Опубликована: Янв. 23, 2024

Abstract Lightning strikes, snow, and wind are common causes of power system failures. Their frequency occurrence varies depending on weather patterns seasons. Here, we analyse the thirty pre-defined daily along with nearly 70,000 failures in United Kingdom between 2010 2019 to investigate predictability weather-induced outages. We identify high-risk pattern transitions for all Winter characterized by high speeds precipitation volumes responsible many instances outages caused wind, gale, lightning strikes. Weather moderate snowfall often linked snow ice. Because can be forecast reliably valuable lead time, clear links specific significantly improve preparedness broader European distribution network operators adverse conditions.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

10

An Overview of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture and their mitigation strategies DOI Open Access

Farhana Bibi,

Azizur Rahman

Опубликована: Июль 19, 2023

In recent days, the adverse effect of climate change on soil properties in agriculture sector is a dreadful reality worldwide. Climate change-induced abiotic stresses such as salinity, drought and temperature fluctuations are devastating crops’ physiological responses, productivity overall yield which ultimately posing serious threat to global food security agroecosystems. The applications chemical fertilizers pesticides contribute towards further deterioration rapid climate. Therefore, more careful, eco-friendly sustainable strategies required mitigate impact climate-induced damage sector. This paper reviews recently reported damaging impacts various crops along with two emerging mitigation strategies; biochar biostimulants, light studies for combating worsening deteriorated environment yields, properties, environment. Here we highlighted applying protecting soil,

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

23

The influence of future weather pattern changes and projected sea-level rise on coastal flood impacts around the UK DOI Creative Commons
Rachel Perks, Dan Bernie, Jason Lowe

и другие.

Climatic Change, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 176(3)

Опубликована: Март 1, 2023

Abstract When local extreme water levels surpass defences, the consequences can be devastating. We assess importance of sea-level rise and future weather pattern changes on UK coastal flood impacts. Historical classifications are matched with observed skew surges significant wave heights. Coastal-risk patterns then defined as ≥ 1% events in distribution exceeding warning threshold. combine this methodology projections frequency occurrences, to determine relative each risk. A deep low-pressure system situated west Ireland (WP29) has highest probability (6.3%) Newlyn’s present-day threshold; is projected increase under climate change 46.2% by 2050 RCP2.6. This work found that associated storm increasing decreasing frequency; a synoptic situation causing windy conditions north (WP23) will > 40% RCP8.5 end century (2079–2090). combining impact changing patterns, study dominates risk highly linked emission scenarios. The need for successful adaptation, such defence improvements early systems, become even more important higher pathway. most increases along east coast, through English Channel Devon coastline.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

15

New extreme rainfall projections for improved climate resilience of urban drainage systems DOI Creative Commons
Steven Chan, Elizabeth Kendon, Hayley J. Fowler

и другие.

Climate Services, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 30, С. 100375 - 100375

Опубликована: Апрель 1, 2023

Climate services must provide robust estimates of future changes to precipitation extremes inform flood risk management and assess the resilience existing urban drainage systems in a changing climate. We use an ensemble convection-permitting UK climate projections, UKCP Local estimate return levels 1–24 h extremes, combining state-of-the-art spatial statistical modelling. produce low, central high level uplifts at 5 km resolution across UK. On average UK, 30y 1 24 is projected increase by 30–45% 20–40% respectively 2070 under RCP8.5, for central-to-high estimates. Uplifts are consistently higher over northern For here than official guidance some parts where guidelines pre-date Local. These spatially-varying given durations out with lower longer duration extremes. physical explanations these patterns variation duration. The new improve on previous that used single value all most nations, was based models poor representation sub-daily results translate latest change projections into tailored adaptation information useful suitable water industry stakeholders. This critical ensuring we benefit from advances modelling build society resilient

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

15

Current and future risk of unprecedented hydrological droughts in Great Britain DOI Creative Commons
Wilson Chan, Nigel W. Arnell, Geoff Darch

и другие.

Journal of Hydrology, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 625, С. 130074 - 130074

Опубликована: Авг. 9, 2023

The UK has experienced recurring hydrological droughts in the past and their frequency severity are predicted to increase with climate change. However, quantifying risks of extreme is challenging given short observational record, multivariate nature large internal variability system. We use EC-Earth time-slice ensembles, which consist 2000 years data each for present-day, 2°C 3°C conditions relative pre-industrial, drive models river catchments Great Britain (GB) obtain a set plausible droughts. Since future warming certain, uncertainty drought mainly associated precipitation. Estimates unprecedented extremes show that chance summer month year drier than observed driest (1995) projected (from 9% present-day (PD) 18% warmer world (3C) southeast England). For winter, dry winter (1991-92) slightly decreases 10% - PD 8% 3C England) but does not change significantly warming. add value these probabilistic estimates by sampling physical storylines sequences characterised spring-summers, autumn-winters consecutive winters . Dry spring-summers estimated become primarily driven reduced precipitation summer. may wetter general trend more although triggered moderate autumn-winter deficits worsen higher likelihood being followed Similarly, impacts winters, particular risk slow-responding English lowlands, as intervening hotter drier. These can be used stress-test systems inform decision-making.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

15

Spatial variability of seasonal rainfall onset, cessation, length and rainy days in Rwanda DOI
Joseph Ndakize Sebaziga, Bonfils Safari, Joshua Ngaina

и другие.

Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 155(8), С. 7591 - 7608

Опубликована: Июль 3, 2024

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

5

How will climate change affect the spatial coherence of streamflow and groundwater droughts in Great Britain? DOI Creative Commons
Maliko Tanguy, Amulya Chevuturi, B. P. Marchant

и другие.

Environmental Research Letters, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 18(6), С. 064048 - 064048

Опубликована: Май 17, 2023

Abstract How climate change will affect the spatial coherence of droughts is a key question that water managers must answer in order to adopt strategies mitigate impacts on resources. Water transfers from regions with excess those deficit are fundamental such strategies, but only possible if both not simultaneously under drought conditions—these relationships could warming world. Here, we use future simulations (under RCP8.5) streamflow (186 catchments) and groundwater level (41 boreholes) Enhanced Future Flows Groundwater (eFLaG) dataset analyse projected hydrological at national scale, Great Britain as an example. Joint conditional probabilities two being used characterise coherence. The results sensitive various uncertainties, including way defined. However, some findings emerge. In particular, for defined based current conditions, our show ‘far future’ (2050–2089) expected increase during summer everywhere country. During winter, however, may South-East, where sharpest rise winter likely occur. between shows more mixed picture, dependant season region. One important observation that, South-East summer, proportion coincide decrease. These provide valuable insight help inform their long-term strategy overcome droughts, feasibility inter-region conjunctive (surface groundwater) schemes. This flexible methodology has potential be applied other parts world shape strategic regional investments resilience droughts.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

11