Climate Change and Hydrological Extremes

Current Climate Change Reports, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 11(1)

Опубликована: Окт. 2, 2024

Язык: Английский

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Challenges for climate change adaptation in Latin America and the Caribbean region

Frontiers in Climate, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 6

Опубликована: Апрель 23, 2024

The limited success of international efforts to reduce global warming at levels established in the Paris Agreement, and increasing frequency strength climate impacts, highlight urgent need adaptation, particularly developing countries. Unfortunately, current adaptation initiatives are not enough counteract observed impacts projected risks from change Latin America Caribbean (LAC). In this paper, we review relevant issues that have capacity transform knowledge parties’ ambitions into action region. Current vulnerabilities climatic impact-drivers LAC diverse, complex, region-specific their effects expected be exacerbated by change. However, advancement regional domestic agendas has been hindered scientific gaps, political support, institutional capacity, financial, technical, human, economic limitations common many Transforming data multidimensional metrics with useful thresholds for different sectors understanding contribution feasible strategies delayed local conundrums such as lack inclusive governance, availability, equity, justice, transboundary issues. We discuss ways move forward develop resilient development actions a more sustainable future LAC. science community needs strengthen its local, national, connections decision/policymakers society establish three-way engagement proposing suitable negotiations vulnerability associated extremes, variability discussions insights presented work could extrapolated other countries Global South.

Язык: Английский

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Recent Decline in Global Ocean Evaporation Due To Wind Stilling

Geophysical Research Letters, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 52(4)

Опубликована: Фев. 19, 2025

Abstract Ocean evaporation ( E o ) is the major source of atmospheric water vapor and precipitation. While it widely recognized that may increase in a warming climate, recent studies have reported diminished global since ∼2000s, raising doubts about changes . Using satellite observations, here we show while strongly increased from 1988 to 2017, upward trend reversed late 2000s. Since then, two‐thirds ocean experienced weakened evaporation, leading slight decreasing global‐averaged during 2008–2017. This suggests even with saturated surface, warmer climate does not always result evaporation. The reversal primarily attributed wind stilling, which likely tied Northern Oscillation Index shifting positive negative phases. These findings offer crucial insights into diverse responses hydrological cycle change.

Язык: Английский

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Spatiotemporal analysis and predicting rainfall trends in a tropical monsoon-dominated country using MAKESENS and machine learning techniques

Scientific Reports, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 13(1)

Опубликована: Авг. 25, 2023

Spatiotemporal rainfall trend analysis as an indicator of climatic change provides critical information for improved water resource planning. However, the spatiotemporal changing behavior is much less understood in a tropical monsoon-dominated country like Bangladesh. To this end, research aims to analyze variations period 1980-2020 over Bangladesh at seasonal and monthly scales using MAKESENS, Pettitt test, innovative analysis. Multilayer Perception (MLP) neural network was used predict next 8 years' changes nationally investigate spatial pattern trends, inverse distance weighting model adopted within ArcGIS environment. Results show that mean annual 2432.6 mm, which 57.6% recorded from July August. The Mann-Kendall test reveals 77% stations are declining, 23% have rising rainfall. More than 80% face declining November March There 82% during pre-monsoon, 75% monsoon, 100% post-monsoon. A significant decline identified north-center northern part southern northwestern portions post-monsoon season. Predicted by MLP till 2030 suggests there will be little rain February, maximum fluctuating occur 2025 2027-2029. ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis data findings suggested patterns may been driven or reducing convective precipitation rates, low cloud cover, inadequate vertically integrated moisture divergence. Given shortage resources anticipated rise demand, study's some implications managing

Язык: Английский

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Changes in South American surface ozone trends: exploring the influences of precursors and extreme events

Atmospheric chemistry and physics, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 24(14), С. 8225 - 8242

Опубликована: Июль 22, 2024

Abstract. In this study, trends of 21st-century ground-level ozone and precursors were examined across South America, a less-studied region where trend estimates have rarely been comprehensively addressed. Therefore, we provided an updated regional analysis based on validated surface observations. We tested the hypothesis that recent increasing trends, mostly in urban environments, resulted from intense wildfires driven by extreme meteorological events impacting cities preexisting volatile organic compound (VOC)-limited regimes dominate. applied quantile regression method monthly anomalies to estimate quantify their uncertainties detect change points. Additionally, maximum daily 8 h average (MDA8) peak-season metrics used assess short- long-term exposure levels, respectively, for present day (2017–2021). Our results showed lower levels tropical (Bogotá Quito), varying between 39 43 nmol mol−1 short-term 26 27 exposure. contrast, mixing ratios higher extratropical (Santiago São Paulo), with level 61 40 41 mol−1. Santiago (since 2017) Paulo 2008) exhibited positive 0.6 0.3 yr−1, very high certainty. attributed these upward or no evidence variation, such as Bogotá Quito, well-established VOC-limited regime. However, greater increase percentile (≥ 90th) heat waves and, case southwestern associated events.

Язык: Английский

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Recent Emerging Shifts in Precipitation Intensity and Frequency in the Global Tropics Observed by Satellite Precipitation Data Sets

Geophysical Research Letters, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 51(15)

Опубликована: Авг. 1, 2024

Abstract Climate models indicate that a warmer environment will increase low‐level moisture, potentially intensify extreme precipitation. However, its impact on different rainfall types remains unclear. Using satellite data, we examined changes in light (0‐95th percentile, ≤5.28 mm hr −1 ) and heavy (95‐100th >5.28 precipitation the tropics from 1998 to 2019. Our findings show −9 ± 2% (23 2%) change (light) rain intensity 13 (−24 1%) frequency. These link sea surface temperatures, increased atmospheric stability water vapor, weakened upward velocity. insights shed how patterns respond changing climate, emphasizing complexities within hydrological cycle.

Язык: Английский

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Changes in extreme rainfall indices in Wereilu district, northeastern Ethiopian highlands, using innovative trend analysis

Deleted Journal, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 7(3)

Опубликована: Март 15, 2025

Язык: Английский

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Assessing Groundwater Sustainability in the Arabian Peninsula and Its Impact on Gravity Fields through Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment Measurements

Remote Sensing, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 16(8), С. 1381 - 1381

Опубликована: Апрель 13, 2024

This study addresses the imperative to comprehend gravity shifts resulting from groundwater storage (GWS) variations in Arabian Peninsula. Despite critical importance of water resource sustainability and its relationship with gravity, limited research emphasizes need for expanded exploration. The investigation explores impact GWS extraction on field, utilizing Gravity Recovery Climate Experiment (GRACE) Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) data addition validation using WaterGAP Hydrology Model (WGHM). Spanning April 2002 June 2023, this predicts trends over next decade Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model. comprehensive time-series analysis reveals a significant GRACE-derived trend approximately −4.90 ± 0.32 mm/year during period. has notable anomaly (GA) values, as observed through decomposition analysis. projected indicates depletion rate 14.51 km3/year decade. correlation between GA is substantial at 0.80, while rainfall negligible due low precipitation rates. Employing multiple linear regression explains 80.61% variance GWS, precipitation, evapotranspiration. investigates climate change factors—precipitation, temperature, evapotranspiration—providing holistic understanding forces shaping variations. Precipitation evapotranspiration exhibit nearly equal limiting replenishment opportunities. holds significance studying extensive withdrawal Peninsula, particularly concerning crust mass stability.

Язык: Английский

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Variability and trends in tropical precipitation intensity in observations and climate models

Climate Dynamics, Год журнала: 2024, Номер unknown

Опубликована: Май 27, 2024

Язык: Английский

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CMIP6 GCMs Projected Future Koppen‐Geiger Climate Zones on a Global Scale

Earth s Future, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 13(1)

Опубликована: Янв. 1, 2025

Abstract This study compared the future global climate zones based on four radiative forcings ranging from low‐end (SSP1‐2.6) to high‐end (SSP5‐8.5) using Köppen‐Geiger classification. To reduce uncertainties in projected precipitation and temperature, multimodel projections comprising 25 general circulation models (GCMs) were sourced recent Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase six (CMIP6) used create a Multi‐Model Ensemble. The changes historical CMIP6 simulations divided into periods considering data availability (1954–1964; 1964–1974; 1974–1984; 1984–1994; 1994–2004; 2004–2014). Furthermore, zone reproducibility of GCMs was with reference Global Precipitation Climatology Centre Climatic Research Unit temperature. seven monthly surface temperature under main SSP scenarios. Consequently, variables overestimated data, composition less complex. While discrepancies 1–2°C may not drastically alter classifications, precipitation‐based classifications are significantly impacted by observed errors. Thus, it is crucial recognize that despite advancements GCMs, they still possess limitations accurately predicting “real” changes. simpler across continents, tundra ice caps expected disappear. highlights potential risks projecting varying greenhouse gas concentration levels, stressing importance these caution given inherent GCMs.

Язык: Английский

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