Changes in extreme rainfall indices in Wereilu district, northeastern Ethiopian highlands, using innovative trend analysis

Deleted Journal, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 7(3)

Опубликована: Март 15, 2025

Язык: Английский

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ERA5 Reproduces Key Features of Global Precipitation Trends in A Warming Climate

International Journal of Climatology, Год журнала: 2025, Номер unknown

Опубликована: Апрель 23, 2025

ABSTRACT The largest impact of future climate changes on societies and ecosystems will likely come from precipitation variability change. Using the ERA5 dataset, this global study examines trends using many parameters across five main components: amount, frequency, type, wet dry spells, extremes. Global are summarised by land ocean areas, region, then zonally averaged to identify broader patterns interactions that may not be apparent in local regional scale studies, especially with a reanalysis dataset. We find dataset was able reproduce key features change: near‐ubiquitous increase extreme precipitation, Arctic transition snowfall rainfall regime mid‐to high latitudes, contrasting sign change amount frequency between ocean. Two noteworthy findings (1) spatial intensification around warmest locations (equatorial region) is matched temporal time year (summer months) northern hemisphere, (2) Himalayas show altitudinal stratification phase changes. Finally, consistent other we synoptic weather types influence scaling temperature should explored research. Additionally, results compared those GPCC, GPCP, MERRA‐2 datasets evaluate robustness results. Daily, annual, seasonal means, including inter‐annual estimates align strongly three validation datasets; however, mixed results, minimal moderate agreement. In general, GPCC most similar ERA5.

Язык: Английский

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Assessing Groundwater Sustainability in the Arabian Peninsula and Its Impact on Gravity Fields through Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment Measurements

Remote Sensing, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 16(8), С. 1381 - 1381

Опубликована: Апрель 13, 2024

This study addresses the imperative to comprehend gravity shifts resulting from groundwater storage (GWS) variations in Arabian Peninsula. Despite critical importance of water resource sustainability and its relationship with gravity, limited research emphasizes need for expanded exploration. The investigation explores impact GWS extraction on field, utilizing Gravity Recovery Climate Experiment (GRACE) Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) data addition validation using WaterGAP Hydrology Model (WGHM). Spanning April 2002 June 2023, this predicts trends over next decade Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model. comprehensive time-series analysis reveals a significant GRACE-derived trend approximately −4.90 ± 0.32 mm/year during period. has notable anomaly (GA) values, as observed through decomposition analysis. projected indicates depletion rate 14.51 km3/year decade. correlation between GA is substantial at 0.80, while rainfall negligible due low precipitation rates. Employing multiple linear regression explains 80.61% variance GWS, precipitation, evapotranspiration. investigates climate change factors—precipitation, temperature, evapotranspiration—providing holistic understanding forces shaping variations. Precipitation evapotranspiration exhibit nearly equal limiting replenishment opportunities. holds significance studying extensive withdrawal Peninsula, particularly concerning crust mass stability.

Язык: Английский

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Variability and trends in tropical precipitation intensity in observations and climate models

Climate Dynamics, Год журнала: 2024, Номер unknown

Опубликована: Май 27, 2024

Язык: Английский

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Characterizing the tropospheric water vapor spatial variation and trend using 2007–2018 COSMIC radio occultation and ECMWF reanalysis data

Atmospheric chemistry and physics, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 23(22), С. 14187 - 14218

Опубликована: Ноя. 15, 2023

Abstract. Atmospheric water vapor plays a crucial role in the global energy balance, hydrological cycle, and climate system. High-quality consistent data from different sources are vital for weather prediction research. This study assesses consistency between Formosa Satellite Mission 3–Constellation Observing System Meteorology, Ionosphere, Climate (FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC) radio occultation (RO) European Centre Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis Model 5 (ERA5) datasets. Comparisons made across atmospheric pressure levels (300, 500, 850 hPa) 2007 to 2018. Generally, two datasets show good spatial temporal agreement. COSMIC's retrieval is slightly lower than ERA5's at 500 hPa, with distinct latitudinal differences hemispheres. COSMIC exhibits increasing trends of 3.47 ± 1.77 % per decade, 3.25 1.25 2.03 0.65 decade 300, respectively. Significant regional variability trends, encompassing notable decreasing patterns, observable tropical subtropical regions. At strong noted equatorial Pacific Ocean Laccadive Sea, while evident Indo-Pacific region Arabian Sea. Over land, substantial hPa observed southern United States, contrasting Africa Australia. The ERA5 primarily negative regions hPa. However, estimated significantly higher ones derived low-height stratocumulus-cloud-rich ocean west South America. These trend located Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) area frequent occurrences convection, such as deep clouds. difference characterizing distribution RO cloud may cause differences. assessment spatiotemporal RO-derived reanalysis helps ensure quality these studies.

Язык: Английский

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Spurious Trends in High Latitude Southern Hemisphere Precipitation Observations

Geophysical Research Letters, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 51(6)

Опубликована: Март 18, 2024

Abstract The high latitude Southern Hemisphere (SH) is an important region for Earth's climate. Ocean heat content, cryosphere interactions, Antarctic bottom water development and the cloud‐albedo feedbacks need to be understood form a complete picture of climate system. However, SH one most under‐observed regions due its remoteness. advent satellites reanalyses have improved our monitoring this region. Some previous studies observed increase in precipitation over latitudes, however we argue that some trends commonly used data sets may artifacts. We use regression analysis Annular Mode contrast these relationships satellite reanalysis products, evaluate SH. suggest sensor changes lack situ available calibration responsible unusual patterns especially around 65°S.

Язык: Английский

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Global Precipitation for the Year 2023 and How It Relates to Longer Term Variations and Trends

Atmosphere, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 15(5), С. 535 - 535

Опубликована: Апрель 27, 2024

In this paper, the global distribution of precipitation for 2023, in terms totals and regional anomaly patterns, is analyzed using information from new Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) V3.2 Monthly product, including how amounts patterns 2023 fit into longer record 1983–2023. The tropical pattern anomalies dominated by effect El Nino which began during Northern Hemisphere spring, after three plus years La Nina conditions. transition conditions through 2022 shows rapid change many features positive to negative or reverse. Comparison observed trend maps with climate model results indicates similarity between observations forced SSTs, while “free-running” ensemble only a broad general agreement over large regions. total about 3% range span data, prominent as features, showing small anomaly. ITCZ (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone) latitude band, 0–10° N, sets high mean rain rate steady upward decades, probably response related warming.

Язык: Английский

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Climate model trend errors are evident in seasonal forecasts at short leads

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 7(1)

Опубликована: Ноя. 20, 2024

Climate models exhibit errors in their simulation of historical trends variables including sea surface temperature, winds, and precipitation, with important implications for regional global climate projections. Here, we show that the same trend are also present a suite initialised seasonal re-forecasts years 1993–2016. These produced by operational similar to Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP)-class share external forcings (e.g. CO2/aerosols). The errors, which often well-developed at very short lead times, represent roughly linear change model mean biases over 1993–2016 re-forecast record. similarity both simulations suggests likewise result from evolving biases, responding changing radiative forcings, instead being an erroneous long-term response forcing. Therefore, these may be investigated examining short-lead development forecasts/re-forecasts, suggest should made all CMIP models.

Язык: Английский

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Evaluation of WRF Performance in Simulating an Extreme Precipitation Event over the South of Minas Gerais, Brazil

Atmosphere, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 14(8), С. 1276 - 1276

Опубликована: Авг. 12, 2023

Extreme precipitation events are becoming increasingly frequent and intense in southeastern Brazil, leading to socio-economic problems. While it is not possible control these events, providing accurate weather forecasts can help society be better prepared. In this study, we assess the performance of Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model simulating a period extreme from 31 December 2021 2 January 2022 southern region Minas Gerais (SMG) state Brazil. We conducted five simulations using two nested grids: 12 km grid (coarse resolution) 3 (high resolution). For coarse resolution, tested cumulus convection parameterization schemes: Kain–Fritsch, Betts–Miller–Janjic, Grell–Freitas, Grell–Devenyi, New Tiedke. evaluated impact on driving high-resolution simulations. To simulations, compared them with satellite estimates, situ measurements thirteen meteorological stations, other variables ERA5 reanalysis. Based results, found that Grell–Freitas scheme has spatial pattern intensity for studied when four analyzed schemes.

Язык: Английский

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Groundwater Storage Variations in the Main Karoo Aquifer Estimated Using GRACE and GPS

Water, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 15(20), С. 3675 - 3675

Опубликована: Окт. 20, 2023

The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) provided valuable insights into variations in Groundwater Storage (GWS). However, the sensitivity of utilizing Global Positioning System (GPS) time series displacement data for detecting changes GWS remains a subject ongoing discussion. In order to estimate spatiotemporal GWS, we selected vertical from 65 GPS stations located Main Karoo Aquifer (MKA). We performed total water storage (TWS) inversion on components; after that, deducted surface components based Land Data Assimilation (GLDAS) January 2013 December 2021. Additionally, validation, compared our estimates with GRACE-derived observed values derived WaterGAP Hydrology Model (WGHM) compartments. discovered that TWS trends GRACE exhibited similar behaviors trend overestimated by WGHM. Our findings demonstrate relatively typical behavior between first second principal component (PCs) empirical orthogonal function (EOF) loadings (or spatial patterns). With contribution 71.83% GPS-derived variability 68.92% variability, EOF-1 is potent factor. For Principal Components PC1 PC2, PCs have correlation coefficients 0.75 0.84, respectively. Finally, higher temporal resolution, can perform same task as hydrological applications. addition, add important information assess regional change.

Язык: Английский

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