Journal of Hydrology Regional Studies,
Год журнала:
2024,
Номер
52, С. 101707 - 101707
Опубликована: Фев. 23, 2024
Iran.
In
this
study,
the
temporal-spatial
performances
of
Global
Climate
Models
(GCMs)
Coupled
Model
Intercomparison
Project
Phase
6
(CMIP6)
in
simulating
precipitation
and
temperature
over
Iran
are
evaluated.
The
simulations
37
CMIP6
GCMs
compared
to
gauge-based
observational
data
from
University
Delaware
(UDEL)
at
0.5°×0.5°
spatial
resolution
for
1985–2014.
A
multi-criteria
statistical
approach
is
used
evaluate
models.
evaluation
criterion
degree
conformity
between
their
outputs
UDEL
data.
Technique
Order
Preference
by
Similarity
Ideal
Solution
(TOPSIS),
integrate
test
results.
Results
show
that
ACCESS-CM2,
BCC-CSM2-MR,
ACCESS-ESM1–5
models
have
superior
performance
Taylor
diagram
methodology
was
employed
assess
agreement
gridded
resulting
correlation
coefficients
rainfall
variables
different
were
(0.35–0.75)
(0.6–0.9),
respectively,
as
determined
diagram.
achieved
higher
ratings
time
phase,
also
showed
better
pattern.
Water,
Год журнала:
2023,
Номер
15(3), С. 606 - 606
Опубликована: Фев. 3, 2023
In
the
coming
years,
climate
change
is
predicted
to
impact
irrigation
water
demand
considerably,
particularly
in
semi-arid
regions.
The
aim
of
this
research
investigate
expected
adverse
impacts
on
management
Saudi
Arabia.
We
focus
influence
requirements
Al
Quassim
(97,408
ha)
region.
Different
models
were
used
for
intermediate
emission
SSP2-4.5
and
high
SSP5-8.5
Coupled
Model
Intercomparison
Project
Phase
6
(CMIP6)
scenarios.
FAO-CROPWAT
8.0
model
was
calculate
reference
evapotranspiration
(ETo)
using
weather
data
from
13
stations
1991
2020
both
scenarios
2040s,
2060s,
2080s,
2100s.
findings
indicated
that,
2100s,
forecast
annual
average
ETo
increases
0.35
mm/d
(6%)
0.7
(12.0%),
respectively.
Net
requirement
(NIWR)
growth
(GIWR)
main
crops
region
assessed
current,
SSP2-4.5,
For
SSP5-8.5,
GIWR
2100s
are
increase
by
2.7,
6.5,
8.5,
12.4%,
respectively,
compared
current
scenario
(1584.7
million
m3).
As
a
result,
there
will
be
higher
deficits
2100
under
major
crops,
with
15.1%,
10.7%,
8.3%,
13.9%,
10.7%
crop
areas
wheat,
clover,
maize,
other
vegetables,
dates,
Optimal
planning,
pattern
selection,
modern
technologies,
combined
proposed
NIWR
values,
can
support
resources
management.
assist
managers
policymakers
better
identifying
adaptation
strategies
similar
climates.
Agricultural Systems,
Год журнала:
2023,
Номер
208, С. 103647 - 103647
Опубликована: Апрель 5, 2023
The
Mediterranean
basin
and
specifically
Northeast
Italy
are
recognised
as
climate
change
hotspots.
latter
is
a
key
socio-economic
area
in
Europe
among
the
most
agriculturally
productive.
However,
increasingly
frequent
drought
periods
(typical
of
drier
climates)
threatening
agriculture.
An
extreme
event
occurred
summer
2022.
It
dramatically
affected
northern
Italy,
through
high
temperatures,
water
shortages
indirect
processes
(such
saltwater
intrusion
Po
River
Delta).
objective
to
map
quantify
agricultural
areas
at
risk
zone
shift
due
human-induced
change,
providing
comprehensive
overview
main
threatened
systems
supporting
use
projections
historical
data
analysis.
We
compared
distribution
current
(1980
>
2016)
future
(2071
2100;
RCP8.5
scenario)
zones
for
8
14
provinces
Italy.
Further
analyses
were
performed
on
support
analyse
during
events:
(1)
multi-temporal
Aridity
Index
(AI)
investigate
aridification
dynamics;
(2)
focus
2022
(drought
temperature
extremes,
situation
that
likely
occur
more
often
future),
combining
Vegetation
Health
(VHI)
with
zonal
investigation
Land
Surface
Temperature
(LST);
(3)
Delta
cultural
landscape.
results
show
evolving
towards
conditions,
posing
challenge
Adriatic
coast
could
become
an
Arid
zone,
finding
line
observations.
Rice
fields
will
be
(76%
their
surface
well
irrigated
lands
essential
food
security
(around
20%
expected
zone).
Worthy
what
foreseen
crops
slopes
(often
not
irrigated),
which
may
experience
summers
(60%
surface).
identified
farm
scale
mapping
where
located,
extent
is,
currently
implemented.
Such
information
would
facilitate
early
action,
guiding
large-scale
planning
resilient
Findings
promote
sustainable
management
plans,
open
debate
worth
growing
based
climate,
inspire
localised
studies
design
mitigation
measures.
International Journal of Climatology,
Год журнала:
2021,
Номер
42(8), С. 4316 - 4332
Опубликована: Ноя. 29, 2021
Abstract
The
global
climate
models
(GCMs)
performances
of
the
recently
released
Coupled
Model
Intercomparison
Project
phase
6
(CMIP6)
compared
to
its
predecessor,
CMIP5,
are
evaluated
anticipate
expected
changes
in
over
Egypt.
Thirteen
GCMs
and
their
multi‐model
ensemble
(MME)
both
CMIPs
were
used
for
this
purpose.
future
projections
two
radiative
concentration
pathways
(RCP
4.5
8.5)
shared
socio‐economic
(SSP
2–4.5
5–8.5).
results
revealed
improvement
most
CMIP6
replicating
historical
rainfall,
maximum
temperature
(Tmax),
minimum
(Tmin)
climatology
MME
that
could
reproduce
Egypt's
spatial
distribution
seasonal
variability.
However,
bias
CMIP5
was
higher
than
CMIP6.
uncertainties
simulating
variability
rainfall
temperatures
lower
CMIP5.
projection
using
a
reduction
precipitation
(10–26
mm)
economically
crucial
northern
region
estimated
(0–17
mm),
133.5
mm
base
period.
also
projected
0.74–1.63°C
more
rise
Tmax
Tmin
by
end
century.
study
indicates
aggravated
scenarios
Egypt
anticipated
earlier,
models.
Therefore,
needs
streamline
existing
adaptation
mitigation
measures
account
projections.
Journal of Hydrology Regional Studies,
Год журнала:
2022,
Номер
40, С. 101035 - 101035
Опубликована: Фев. 11, 2022
Mekong
River
Basin.
The
Coupled
Model
Intercomparison
Project
Phase
6
(CMIP6)
recently
announced
an
updated
version
of
general
circulation
models
(GCMs).
This
study
investigated
the
performance
improved
CMIP6
over
those
CMIP5
with
respect
to
precipitation
and
flood
representations
in
Basin
(MRB).
correlation
error
comparison
from
referenced
exhibited
a
significant
improvement
peak
value
representation.
Hence,
impacts
climate
change
on
future
floods
MRB
were
simulated
assessed
using
distributed
rainfall–runoff–inundation
model.
results
indicated
that
had
higher
lower
coefficient
than
CMIP5.
Similarly,
simulation
GCM
ensembles
monthly
discharge
comparable
average
observations,
whereas
underestimated
simulations.
mean
annual
37,220
m3/s
(CMIP5)
45,423
compared
43,521
(observation).
projections
increase
at
Chiang
Saen,
Vientiane,
Pakse,
Kratie
stations
by
10–15%,
20–22%,
24–29%
for
SSP2-4.5
scenario,
10–18%,
24–29%,
41–54%
SSP5-8.5
scenario
near
(2026–2050),
mid-future
(2051–2075),
far
(2076–2100),
respectively.
statistical
K-S
test
showed
changes
all
projected
periods
p-value
<
0.01.
Abstract
Precipitation's
temporal
and
spatial
patterns
under
climate
change
significantly
impact
global
terrestrial
ecology
human
social
activities.
Climate
models
are
essential
tools
for
assessing
the
impacts
of
formulating
policies
to
address
change.
The
evaluation
results
historical
model
simulations
can
represent
reliability
their
future
simulations.
This
study
evaluated
simulation
capabilities
41
All‐Forcing
monthly
precipitation
three
integrated
over
land
in
Coupled
Model
Comparison
Project
Phase
6
(CMIP6).
show
that
capability
(GCMs)
CMIP6
is
highly
variable
overland
around
world.
variability
manifested
two
aspects:
comprehensive
ability
each
different
geographical
regions
climatic
zones
world
significant
difference
region.
These
GCMs
generally
overestimate
land,
with
exception
southeast
Asia
tropical
rainforest
(Af),
where
all
underestimate
precipitation.
Some
GCMS
perform
well
regionally
but
poorly
on
scale.
One
example
shows
EC‐Earth3's
best
at
Cwc
zone,
surpassing
model,
failed
rank
top
10
22
29
zones.
Our
highlight
need
select
appropriate
integration
when
conducting
studies
regional
scales
as
a
critical
factor
studying
predictions.
