Multi-criteria evaluation of CMIP6 precipitation and temperature simulations over Iran DOI Creative Commons
Omid Zabihi, Azadeh Ahmadi

Journal of Hydrology Regional Studies, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 52, P. 101707 - 101707

Published: Feb. 23, 2024

Iran. In this study, the temporal-spatial performances of Global Climate Models (GCMs) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) in simulating precipitation and temperature over Iran are evaluated. The simulations 37 CMIP6 GCMs compared to gauge-based observational data from University Delaware (UDEL) at 0.5°×0.5° spatial resolution for 1985–2014. A multi-criteria statistical approach is used evaluate models. evaluation criterion degree conformity between their outputs UDEL data. Technique Order Preference by Similarity Ideal Solution (TOPSIS), integrate test results. Results show that ACCESS-CM2, BCC-CSM2-MR, ACCESS-ESM1–5 models have superior performance Taylor diagram methodology was employed assess agreement gridded resulting correlation coefficients rainfall variables different were (0.35–0.75) (0.6–0.9), respectively, as determined diagram. achieved higher ratings time phase, also showed better pattern.

Language: Английский

Inconsistency in historical simulations and future projections of temperature and rainfall: A comparison of CMIP5 and CMIP6 models over Southeast Asia DOI
Mohammed Magdy Hamed, Mohamed Salem Nashwan, Shamsuddin Shahid

et al.

Atmospheric Research, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 265, P. 105927 - 105927

Published: Nov. 15, 2021

Language: Английский

Citations

136
Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources in Arid and Semi-Arid Regions: A Case Study in Saudi Arabia DOI Open Access
Mustafa El-Rawy, Okke Batelaan, Nassir Al‐Arifi

et al.

Water, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 15(3), P. 606 - 606

Published: Feb. 3, 2023

In the coming years, climate change is predicted to impact irrigation water demand considerably, particularly in semi-arid regions. The aim of this research investigate expected adverse impacts on management Saudi Arabia. We focus influence requirements Al Quassim (97,408 ha) region. Different models were used for intermediate emission SSP2-4.5 and high SSP5-8.5 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) scenarios. FAO-CROPWAT 8.0 model was calculate reference evapotranspiration (ETo) using weather data from 13 stations 1991 2020 both scenarios 2040s, 2060s, 2080s, 2100s. findings indicated that, 2100s, forecast annual average ETo increases 0.35 mm/d (6%) 0.7 (12.0%), respectively. Net requirement (NIWR) growth (GIWR) main crops region assessed current, SSP2-4.5, For SSP5-8.5, GIWR 2100s are increase by 2.7, 6.5, 8.5, 12.4%, respectively, compared current scenario (1584.7 million m3). As a result, there will be higher deficits 2100 under major crops, with 15.1%, 10.7%, 8.3%, 13.9%, 10.7% crop areas wheat, clover, maize, other vegetables, dates, Optimal planning, pattern selection, modern technologies, combined proposed NIWR values, can support resources management. assist managers policymakers better identifying adaptation strategies similar climates.

Language: Английский

Citations

58
Climate change-induced aridity is affecting agriculture in Northeast Italy DOI Creative Commons
Eugenio Straffelini, Paolo Tarolli

Agricultural Systems, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 208, P. 103647 - 103647

Published: April 5, 2023

The Mediterranean basin and specifically Northeast Italy are recognised as climate change hotspots. latter is a key socio-economic area in Europe among the most agriculturally productive. However, increasingly frequent drought periods (typical of drier climates) threatening agriculture. An extreme event occurred summer 2022. It dramatically affected northern Italy, through high temperatures, water shortages indirect processes (such saltwater intrusion Po River Delta). objective to map quantify agricultural areas at risk zone shift due human-induced change, providing comprehensive overview main threatened systems supporting use projections historical data analysis. We compared distribution current (1980 > 2016) future (2071 2100; RCP8.5 scenario) zones for 8 14 provinces Italy. Further analyses were performed on support analyse during events: (1) multi-temporal Aridity Index (AI) investigate aridification dynamics; (2) focus 2022 (drought temperature extremes, situation that likely occur more often future), combining Vegetation Health (VHI) with zonal investigation Land Surface Temperature (LST); (3) Delta cultural landscape. results show evolving towards conditions, posing challenge Adriatic coast could become an Arid zone, finding line observations. Rice fields will be (76% their surface well irrigated lands essential food security (around 20% expected zone). Worthy what foreseen crops slopes (often not irrigated), which may experience summers (60% surface). identified farm scale mapping where located, extent is, currently implemented. Such information would facilitate early action, guiding large-scale planning resilient Findings promote sustainable management plans, open debate worth growing based climate, inspire localised studies design mitigation measures.

Language: Английский

Citations

58
Assessing hydrological performance for optimized integrated grey-green infrastructure in response to climate change based on shared socio-economic pathways DOI
Mo Wang, Ming Liu, Dongqing Zhang

et al.

Sustainable Cities and Society, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 91, P. 104436 - 104436

Published: Jan. 31, 2023

Language: Английский

Citations

44
CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS IMPACTS ON HYDROLOGICAL REGIMES OVER THE BENGALDELTA DOI Creative Commons
M Ali, Partha Biswas,

Muhammad Qumrul Hassan

et al.

Results in Engineering, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 103861 - 103861

Published: Jan. 1, 2025

Language: Английский

Citations

2
Modeling of historical and future changes in temperature and precipitation in the Panj River Basin in Central Asia under the CMIP5 RCP and CMIP6 SSP scenarios DOI Creative Commons
Aminjon Gulakhmadov, Xi Chen, Nekruz Gulahmadov

et al.

Scientific Reports, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 15(1)

Published: Jan. 24, 2025

This study examines the complexities of climate modeling, specifically in Panj River Basin (PRB) Central Asia, to evaluate transition from CMIP5 CMIP6 models. The research aimed identify differences historical simulations and future predictions rainfall temperature, examining accuracy eight General Circulation Models (GCMs) used both (RCP4.5 8.5) (SSP2–4.5 5–8.5). evaluation metrics demonstrated that GCMs have a high level reproducing maximum temperature (Tmax) with correlation coefficient 0.96. models also performed well replicating minimum (Tmin) 0.94. suggests improved modeling capabilities CMIPs. performance Max Plank Institute (MPI) across all variables was exceptional. Within domain, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (GFDL) outstanding skill precipitation (KGE 0.58 0.34, respectively), while (Institute for Numerical Mathematics) INMCM excelled 0.28). uncertainty analysis revealed significant improvement bias bands, resulting more precise depiction diverse zones compared CMIP5. Both CMIPs consistently tended underestimate Tmax Csa zone overestimate it Bwk throughout months. Nevertheless, decrease uncertainty, especially ensemble simulations, suggesting improvements forecasting PRB dynamics. projections complex story, as predict relatively small increase simultaneous drop precipitation. indicates trend towards uniform patterns different areas. forecasts exhibited increased variability, highlighting intricate interaction dynamics area under impact global warming scenarios. Hydrological components can be further developed theoretical reference provided by this study.

Language: Английский

Citations

2
Inter‐comparison of historical simulation and future projections of rainfall and temperature by CMIP5 and CMIP6 GCMs over Egypt DOI
Mohammed Magdy Hamed, Mohamed Salem Nashwan, Shamsuddin Shahid

et al.

International Journal of Climatology, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 42(8), P. 4316 - 4332

Published: Nov. 29, 2021

Abstract The global climate models (GCMs) performances of the recently released Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) compared to its predecessor, CMIP5, are evaluated anticipate expected changes in over Egypt. Thirteen GCMs and their multi‐model ensemble (MME) both CMIPs were used for this purpose. future projections two radiative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 8.5) shared socio‐economic (SSP 2–4.5 5–8.5). results revealed improvement most CMIP6 replicating historical rainfall, maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum (Tmin) climatology MME that could reproduce Egypt's spatial distribution seasonal variability. However, bias CMIP5 was higher than CMIP6. uncertainties simulating variability rainfall temperatures lower CMIP5. projection using a reduction precipitation (10–26 mm) economically crucial northern region estimated (0–17 mm), 133.5 mm base period. also projected 0.74–1.63°C more rise Tmax Tmin by end century. study indicates aggravated scenarios Egypt anticipated earlier, models. Therefore, needs streamline existing adaptation mitigation measures account projections.

Language: Английский

Citations

80
Comparison of CMIP5 and CMIP6 GCM performance for flood projections in the Mekong River Basin DOI Creative Commons
Sophal Try,

Shigenobu Tanaka,

K. Tanaka

et al.

Journal of Hydrology Regional Studies, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 40, P. 101035 - 101035

Published: Feb. 11, 2022

Mekong River Basin. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) recently announced an updated version of general circulation models (GCMs). This study investigated the performance improved CMIP6 over those CMIP5 with respect to precipitation and flood representations in Basin (MRB). correlation error comparison from referenced exhibited a significant improvement peak value representation. Hence, impacts climate change on future floods MRB were simulated assessed using distributed rainfall–runoff–inundation model. results indicated that had higher lower coefficient than CMIP5. Similarly, simulation GCM ensembles monthly discharge comparable average observations, whereas underestimated simulations. mean annual 37,220 m3/s (CMIP5) 45,423 compared 43,521 (observation). projections increase at Chiang Saen, Vientiane, Pakse, Kratie stations by 10–15%, 20–22%, 24–29% for SSP2-4.5 scenario, 10–18%, 24–29%, 41–54% SSP5-8.5 scenario near (2026–2050), mid-future (2051–2075), far (2076–2100), respectively. statistical K-S test showed changes all projected periods p-value < 0.01.

Language: Английский

Citations

68
Predictive mapping of two endemic oak tree species under climate change scenarios in a semiarid region: Range overlap and implications for conservation DOI Open Access

Ala A. Hama,

Nabaz R. Khwarahm

Ecological Informatics, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 73, P. 101930 - 101930

Published: Nov. 25, 2022

Language: Английский

Citations

64
Projection of temperature and precipitation in the Mediterranean region through multi-model ensemble from CMIP6 DOI
Mehmet Şeker, Veysel Gümüş

Atmospheric Research, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 280, P. 106440 - 106440

Published: Sept. 16, 2022

Language: Английский

Citations

63