Addressing
the
impacts
of
climate
change
requires,
first
all,
understanding
mechanisms
driving
changes,
especially
at
regional
scale.
In
particular,
policymakers
and
other
stakeholders
need
physically
robust
information
to
drive
societal
responses
a
changing
climate.
this
study,
we
analyse
late
21st
century
precipitation
projections
(2071-2100)
over
Congo
Basin
under
Representative
Concentration
Pathway
(RCP)
8.5,
from
Rossby
Centre
Regional
Climate
Model
(RCM)
RCA4.
examine
impact
RCM
formulation
(reduction
turbulent
mixing)
on
future
projections,
by
comparing
results
modified
version
(RCA4-v4)
with
those
standard
(RCA4-v1)
used
in
CORDEX
(Coordinated
Downscaling
EXperiment).
The
two
versions
are
driven
global
models
participating
Coupled
Intercomparison
Project
phase
5
(CMIP5).
Results
show
that
seasonal
is
largely
affected
modifications
atmospheric
column
moisture
convergence
or
divergence,
turn,
associated
dynamic
thermodynamic
effects.
Projected
decreased
dry
seasons
an
increased
effects
(changes
circulation).
Precipitation
projected
overall
increase
wet
seasons,
related
both
effects,
but
larger
contribution
specific
humidity).
By
model
versions,
found
strongly
influences
as
well
boundary
conditions
(driving
GCM).
This
result
could
be
very
informative
view
ensure
fitness
for
purpose
decision-makers.
Atmosphere,
Год журнала:
2022,
Номер
13(5), С. 741 - 741
Опубликована: Май 6, 2022
Climate
change
continues
to
increase
the
intensity,
frequency
and
impacts
of
weather
climate
extremes.
This
work
uses
bias-adjusted
Coupled
Model
Intercomparison
Project
Phase
six
(CMIP6)
model
datasets
investigate
future
changes
in
temperature
extremes
over
Mediterranean
(MED)
Sahara
(SAH)
regions.
The
mid-
(2041–2070)
far-future
(2071–2100)
are
studied
under
two
Shared
Socioeconomic
Pathways:
SSP2-4.5
SSP5-8.5
scenarios.
Quantile
mapping
function
greatly
improved
performance
CMIP6
by
reducing
notable
biases
match
distribution
observation
data,
Prediction
Center
(CPC).
Results
show
persistent
significant
warming
throughout
21st
century,
increasing
with
radiative
forcing.
MED
will
record
a
higher
as
compared
SAH.
is
supported
projected
reduction
cold
days
(TX10p)
nights
(TN10p),
number
exceeding
days.
Notably,
warm
spell
duration
index
(WSDI)
summer
(SU)
have
positive
trend
both
timelines
entire
study
area.
There
need
simulate
how
sensitive
sectors,
such
water
agriculture,
likely
be
affected
different
scenarios
for
informed
decision
making
choice
implementation
adaptation
mitigation
effective
measures.
Abstract
This
study
assesses
the
performance
of
large
ensembles
global
(CMIP5,
CMIP6)
and
regional
(CORDEX,
CORE)
climate
models
in
simulating
extreme
precipitation
over
four
major
river
basins
(Limpopo,
Okavango,
Orange,
Zambezi)
southern
Africa
during
period
1983–2005.
The
ability
model
to
simulate
seasonal
indices
is
assessed
using
three
high-resolution
satellite-based
datasets.
results
show
that
all
overestimate
annual
cycle
mean
basins,
although
intermodel
spread
large,
with
CORDEX
being
closest
observed
values.
Generally,
interannual
variability
rainy
days
(RR1),
maximum
consecutive
wet
(CWD),
heavy
very
(R10mm
R20mm,
respectively)
seasons.
Simple
daily
rainfall
intensity
(SDII)
number
dry
(CDD)
are
generally
underestimated.
lowest
Taylor
skill
scores
(TSS)
spatial
correlation
coefficients
(SCC)
depicted
for
CDD
Limpopo
compared
other
respectively.
Additionally,
exhibit
highest
normalized
standard
deviations
(NSD)
CWD
indices.
RCM
lower
better,
respectively,
than
those
GCM
(except
CDD).
In
particular,
performs
better
CORE
basins.
Although
ensemble
biases
often
within
range
observations,
statistically
significant
shown
by
underline
need
bias
correction
when
these
impact
assessments.
One Earth,
Год журнала:
2024,
Номер
7(3), С. 455 - 472
Опубликована: Фев. 14, 2024
The
Great
Green
Wall
(GGW)
is
a
multibillion-dollar
African
initiative
to
combat
desertification
in
the
Sahel.
However,
potential
climate
impacts
of
most
recent
GGW
plan
on
northern
Africa
have
not
yet
been
adequately
evaluated,
raising
concerns
about
unforeseen
ramifications
that
could
affect
stability
and
undermine
goals
initiative.
Using
high-resolution
(∼13
km)
regional
model,
we
evaluate
four
scenarios
with
varying
vegetation
densities
under
two
extreme
emission
pathways
(low
high).
Higher
density
both
show
enhanced
rainfall,
reduced
drought
lengths,
decreased
summer
temperatures
beyond
region
relative
cases
no
GGW.
all
more
hot
days
higher
heat
indices
pre-monsoonal
season.
These
findings
highlight
contrasting
climatic
effects,
emphasizing
need
for
comprehensive
assessments
shaping
future
policies.
Environmental Research Climate,
Год журнала:
2023,
Номер
2(4), С. 045009 - 045009
Опубликована: Сен. 15, 2023
Abstract
After
analysing
observed
summer
compound
hot
and
dry
(CHD)
events
over
Europe
from
1950
to
2022,
we
employ
a
large
ensemble
of
high-resolution
regional
climate
model
simulations
investigate
CHD
under
different
emission
scenarios.
By
the
end
century,
even
low-emission
scenario,
results
show
likely
increase
in
frequency
extension
most
(60%)
Europe.
In
particular,
fraction
land
projected
be
hit
once
every
two
years
nearly
doubles
(at
least
15%,
range
6–21)
compared
historical
period
(8%,
6.5–10),
at
5,3%
(1–7)
will
year.
Under
high-emission
50%
Iberian
Peninsula
is
twice
three
(20.3
times
30
years,
17.2–24.2),
1
ten
period,
whereas
British
Islands,
France,
Mediterranean
more
than
years.
Moreover,
10%
European
7
(4.2
times,
3.2–5.6)
by
whose
intensity
equalled
or
surpassed
maximum
recorded
during
1950–2022,
20%
5
The
record-breaking
unprecedented
mostly
related
heatwaves,
which
regions
for
scenario.
contrast,
drought
limited
southern
medium-
