Climate Change and Weather Extremes in the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East

Reviews of Geophysics, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 60(3)

Опубликована: Июнь 28, 2022

Abstract Observation‐based and modeling studies have identified the Eastern Mediterranean Middle East (EMME) region as a prominent climate change hotspot. While several initiatives addressed impacts of in parts EMME, here we present an updated assessment, covering wide range timescales, phenomena future pathways. Our assessment is based on revised analysis recent observations projections extensive overview scientific literature causes effects regional change. Greenhouse gas emissions EMME are growing rapidly, surpassing those European Union, hence contributing significantly to Over past half‐century especially during decades, has warmed faster than other inhabited regions. At same time, changes hydrological cycle become evident. The observed temperature increase about 0.45°C per decade projected continue, although strong global greenhouse emission reductions could moderate this trend. In addition mean conditions, call attention extreme weather events with potentially disruptive societal impacts. These include strongly increasing severity duration heatwaves, droughts dust storms, well torrential rain that can trigger flash floods. review complemented by discussion atmospheric pollution land‐use region, including urbanization, desertification forest fires. Finally, identify sectors may be critically affected formulate adaptation research recommendations toward greater resilience

Язык: Английский

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Projected Changes in Temperature and Precipitation Over the United States, Central America, and the Caribbean in CMIP6 GCMs

Earth Systems and Environment, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 5(1), С. 1 - 24

Опубликована: Янв. 1, 2021

Abstract The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) dataset is used to examine projected changes in temperature and precipitation over the United States (U.S.), Central America Caribbean. are computed using an ensemble of 31 models for three future time slices (2021–2040, 2041–2060, 2080–2099) relative reference period (1995–2014) under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs; SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5). CMIP6 reproduces observed annual cycle distribution mean with biases between − 0.93 1.27 °C 37.90 58.45%, respectively, most region. However, modeled too large western Midwestern U.S. during winter spring North American monsoon region summer, while small southern America. Temperature increase entire domain all SSPs, by as much SSP5-8.5, more pronounced increases northern latitudes regions that receive snow present climate. Annual projections end twenty-first century have uncertainty, expected, exhibit a meridional dipole-like pattern, increasing 10–30% decreasing 10–40% Caribbean, especially Seasonally, eastern central subregions decrease summer autumn. Over America, seasons except analysis was repeated on subset 9 best performance period; however, no significant difference found, suggesting model bias not strongly influencing projections.

Язык: Английский

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Projected Changes in Climate Extremes Using CMIP6 Simulations Over SREX Regions

Earth Systems and Environment, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 5(3), С. 481 - 497

Опубликована: Авг. 23, 2021

This paper presents projected changes in extreme temperature and precipitation events by using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) data for mid-century (2036–2065) end-century (2070–2099) periods with respect to the reference period (1985–2014). Four indices namely, Annual maximum of (TXx), Extreme heat wave days frequency (HWFI), consecutive 5-day (RX5day), Consecutive Dry Days (CDD) were investigated under four socioeconomic scenarios (SSP1-2.6; SSP2-4.5; SSP3-7.0; SSP5-8.5) over entire globe its 26 Special Report on Managing Risks Events Disasters Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX) regions. The projections show an increase intensity hot extremes land. hottest (as measured TXx) is more extratropical regions than tropics, while extremely HWFI) tropics. Drought CDD) Brazil, Mediterranean, South Africa, Australia. Meanwhile, Asian monsoon (i.e., Asia, East Southeast Asia) become prone flash flooding later twenty-first century as shown higher RX5day index projections. reveal large spatial variability within each SREX region. studied increases increasing greenhouse gas concentration (GHG) at end century. change pattern their minimum low-emission scenario SSP1-2.6. Our results indicate that increased GHG leads substantial intensities. Hence, limiting CO2 emissions could substantially limit risks associated

Язык: Английский

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Comparison of CMIP6 and CMIP5 models in simulating mean and extreme precipitation over East Africa

International Journal of Climatology, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 41(15), С. 6474 - 6496

Опубликована: Май 18, 2021

Abstract This study examines the improvement in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase Six (CMIP6) models against predecessor CMIP5 simulating mean and extreme precipitation over East Africa region. The compares climatology of indices simulated by CMIP with CHIRPS data set using robust statistical techniques for 1981–2005. results display varying performance general circulation (GCMs) simulation annual seasonal domain. CMIP6 multi‐model ensemble (hereafter MME) shows improved local cycle a better representation rainfall within two peaks, especially MAM relative to their predecessor. Moreover, is well captured CMIP5. CMIP6‐MME performed than CMIP5‐MME lesser biases Simple Daily Intensity Index (SDII), consecutive dry days (CDD), very heavy >20 mm (R20mm) Africa. Remarkably, most are unable simulate extremely wet (R95p). Some (e.g., NorESM2‐MM CNRM‐CM6‐1) depict reproducing observed across all analyses. OND season some (i.e., R95p, PRCPTOT), except SDII, CDD, R20mm models. Consistent other studies, both CMIP5/6 as compared individual due cancellation systematic errors Generally, depicts However, new model generation still marred uncertainty, thereby depicting unsatisfactory calls further investigation into sources persistent methodology identifying features that can accurately patterns future usage.

Язык: Английский

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Projection of climate extremes in China, an incremental exercise from CMIP5 to CMIP6

Science Bulletin, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 66(24), С. 2528 - 2537

Опубликована: Июль 21, 2021

This paper presents projections of climate extremes over China under global warming 1.5, 2, and 3 °C above pre-industrial (1861-1900), based on the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) simulations. Results are compared with what produced by precedent project, CMIP5. evaluation for reference period (1985-2005) indicates that CMIP6 models outperform their predecessors in CMIP5, especially simulating precipitation extremes. Areal averages changes most indices found larger than The emblematic annual mean temperature, when averaged whole CMIP6, increases 1.49, 2.21, 3.53 (relative to 1985-2005) above-preindustrial levels, while counterpart CMIP5 is 1.20, 1.93 3.39 respectively. Similarly, total 5.3%, 8.6%, 16.3% 4.4%, 7.0% 12.8% spatial distribution extreme generally consistent both but significantly higher Northeast Northwest hottest day South coldest night temperature. In south bank Yangtze River, regions around 40°N, shows heavy precipitation. projected difference between mainly attributable physical upgrading largely independent from emission scenarios.

Язык: Английский

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Intercomparison of the expected change in the temperature and the precipitation retrieved from CMIP6 and CMIP5 climate projections: A Mediterranean hot spot case, Turkey

Atmospheric Research, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 256, С. 105576 - 105576

Опубликована: Март 19, 2021

Язык: Английский

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Projected future daily characteristics of African precipitation based on global (CMIP5, CMIP6) and regional (CORDEX, CORDEX-CORE) climate models

Climate Dynamics, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 57(11-12), С. 3135 - 3158

Опубликована: Июнь 30, 2021

Abstract We provide an assessment of future daily characteristics African precipitation by explicitly comparing the results large ensembles global (CMIP5, CMIP6) and regional (CORDEX, CORE) climate models, specifically highlighting similarities inconsistencies between them. Results for seasonal mean are not always consistent amongst ensembles: in particular, models tend to project a wetter compared especially over Eastern Sahel, Central East Africa. However, other more consistent. In general, all increase maximum intensity during wet season regions emission scenarios (except West Sahel decrease frequency (under Representative Concentration Pathways RCP8.5) Atlas region, southern central Africa, Africa Depending on season, length dry spells is projected consistently most (if all) Ethiopian highlands region. Discrepancies exist change specific seasons. For instance, July–August show but robust decrease. Global also opposite sign spells. CORE marked drying affected monsoon throughout year, accompanied May July that present ensembles. This enhanced may be related physical mechanisms better resolved higher resolution highlights importance process-based evaluation controlling

Язык: Английский

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Business-as-usual will lead to super and ultra-extreme heatwaves in the Middle East and North Africa

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 4(1)

Опубликована: Март 23, 2021

Abstract Global climate projections suggest a significant intensification of summer heat extremes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). To assess regional impacts, underpin mitigation adaptation measures, robust information is required from downscaling studies, which has been lacking for region. Here, we project future hot spells by using Heat Wave Magnitude Index comprehensive ensemble MENA. Our results, business-as-usual pathway, indicate that second half this century unprecedented super- ultra-extreme heatwave conditions will emerge. These events involve excessively high temperatures (up to 56 °C higher) be extended duration (several weeks), being potentially life-threatening humans. By end century, about MENA population (approximately 600 million) could exposed annually recurring heatwaves. It expected vast majority (>90%) live urban centers, who would need cope with these societally disruptive weather conditions.

Язык: Английский

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Increased high-temperature extremes and associated population exposure in Africa by the mid-21st century

The Science of The Total Environment, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 790, С. 148162 - 148162

Опубликована: Май 31, 2021

Язык: Английский

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Future changes in precipitation and temperature over the Yangtze River Basin in China based on CMIP6 GCMs

Atmospheric Research, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 264, С. 105828 - 105828

Опубликована: Авг. 25, 2021

Язык: Английский

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