Assessing the impact of climate change on soybean production in Argentina DOI Creative Commons
Esteban Otto Thomasz, Ismael Pérez-Franco, Agustín García García

и другие.

Climate Services, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 34, С. 100458 - 100458

Опубликована: Апрель 1, 2024

Soy is the most important agricultural commodity in Argentina, with relevance public revenues and international reserves accumulation. However, a proper impact evaluation of future losses context climate change has not yet been developed. Therefore, aim this paper to provide estimates for macroeconomic adaptation policies. By means multiple partial regression, relation between total country soybean yields different combinations 28 territorial weather stations was estimated period 2001–2021. With optimal model, output projected using rainfall temperature data from 150 models 4 scenarios Copernicus database during 2022–2042. Results show strong statistical relationship levels maximum yields, explaining on average 91.2% yield variation. The projections showed that general four at 3.8% higher than current levels, 30% lower 70% values production. Variability analysis an increase frequency intensity extreme negative events aggregate past: relative loss 3.6% production (USD million $13,000) compared 2.3% historical $7,492). main application estimation macro-fiscal long-term budgetary fiscal planning, parsimonious approach open-access allows permanent actualization.

Язык: Английский

Current and Future Climate Extremes Over Latin America and Caribbean: Assessing Earth System Models from High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) DOI Creative Commons
Álvaro Ávila-Díaz, Roger Rodrigues Torres, Cristian Felipe Zuluaga

и другие.

Earth Systems and Environment, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 7(1), С. 99 - 130

Опубликована: Дек. 19, 2022

Extreme temperature and precipitation events are the primary triggers of hazards, such as heat waves, droughts, floods, landslides, with localized impacts. In this sense, finer grids Earth System models (ESMs) could play an essential role in better estimating extreme climate events. The performance High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) is evaluated using Expert Team on Climate Change Detection Indices (ETCCDI) over 1981-2014 period future changes (2021-2050) under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway SSP5-8.5, ten regions Latin America Caribbean. impact increasing horizontal resolution variability a regional scale first compared against reference gridded datasets, including reanalysis, satellite, merging products. We used three different groups based model's grid (sg): (i) low (0.8° ≤ sg 1.87°), (ii) intermediate (0.5° 0.7°), (iii) high (0.23° ≥ 0.35°). Our analysis indicates that there was no clear evidence to support posit improves model performance. ECMWF-IFS family appears be plausible choice represent extremes, followed by ensemble mean HighResMIP their resolution. For climate, projections indicate consensus extremes increase across most regions. Despite uncertainties presented study, have been will continue important tool for assessing risk face events.The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s41748-022-00337-7.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

36

A future of extreme precipitation and droughts in the Peruvian Andes DOI Creative Commons
Emily Potter, Catriona Fyffe, Andrew Orr

и другие.

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 6(1)

Опубликована: Июль 20, 2023

Abstract Runoff from glacierised Andean river basins is essential for sustaining the livelihoods of millions people. By running a high-resolution climate model over two most regions Peru we unravel past climatic trends in precipitation and temperature. Future changes are determined an ensemble statistically downscaled global models. Projections under high emissions scenario suggest substantial increases temperature 3.6 °C 4.1 regions, accompanied by 12% increase late 21st century. Crucially, significant extremes (around 75% total on very wet days) occur together with intensification meteorological droughts caused increased evapotranspiration. Despite higher precipitation, glacier mass losses enhanced both highest emission stabilization scenarios. Our modelling provides new projection combined contrasting risks, region already experiencing rapid environmental change.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

20

Evidence and Controls of the Acceleration of the Hydrological Cycle Over Land DOI Creative Commons
Yiran Wang, Naika Meili, Simone Fatichi

и другие.

Water Resources Research, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 59(8)

Опубликована: Авг. 1, 2023

Abstract Investigating modifications in the hydrological cycle is essential to understand impacts of climate change on ecosystems. This study assesses velocity water over land at global scale, whereas previous studies have mostly focused changes atmospheric cycle. The acceleration quantified by a decrease average residence time (RT) first meter soil. soil RT shown be sensitive texture and seasonality hydroclimatic variables. Despite substantial local variability, most RTs are range 50–300 days. mean declined rate −2.30 −0.36 days decade −1 (−1.6 1.0 nine models) from 2001 2020 as measured reanalysis CMIP6 simulations for historical scenario, respectively, which corresponds −6.8 −1.1 °C when expressed per degree warming land. projected continue −1.35 (−3.4 0.0 or −2.2 during period 2015–2100 under extreme emission scenario: SSP 585. Changes precipitation dominantly drive terrestrial compared evapotranspiration. Rising temperatures increasing carbon dioxide opposite effects speed with compensatory roles keeping relatively unchanged absence PR trends.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

19

Climate risks and vulnerabilities of the Arabica coffee in Brazil under current and future climates considering new CMIP6 models DOI
Cássia Gabriele Dias, Fabrina Bolzan Martins, Minella Alves Martins

и другие.

The Science of The Total Environment, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 907, С. 167753 - 167753

Опубликована: Окт. 11, 2023

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

18

Assessing the impact of climate change on soybean production in Argentina DOI Creative Commons
Esteban Otto Thomasz, Ismael Pérez-Franco, Agustín García García

и другие.

Climate Services, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 34, С. 100458 - 100458

Опубликована: Апрель 1, 2024

Soy is the most important agricultural commodity in Argentina, with relevance public revenues and international reserves accumulation. However, a proper impact evaluation of future losses context climate change has not yet been developed. Therefore, aim this paper to provide estimates for macroeconomic adaptation policies. By means multiple partial regression, relation between total country soybean yields different combinations 28 territorial weather stations was estimated period 2001–2021. With optimal model, output projected using rainfall temperature data from 150 models 4 scenarios Copernicus database during 2022–2042. Results show strong statistical relationship levels maximum yields, explaining on average 91.2% yield variation. The projections showed that general four at 3.8% higher than current levels, 30% lower 70% values production. Variability analysis an increase frequency intensity extreme negative events aggregate past: relative loss 3.6% production (USD million $13,000) compared 2.3% historical $7,492). main application estimation macro-fiscal long-term budgetary fiscal planning, parsimonious approach open-access allows permanent actualization.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

9