Challenges for climate change adaptation in Latin America and the Caribbean region

Frontiers in Climate, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 6

Опубликована: Апрель 23, 2024

The limited success of international efforts to reduce global warming at levels established in the Paris Agreement, and increasing frequency strength climate impacts, highlight urgent need adaptation, particularly developing countries. Unfortunately, current adaptation initiatives are not enough counteract observed impacts projected risks from change Latin America Caribbean (LAC). In this paper, we review relevant issues that have capacity transform knowledge parties’ ambitions into action region. Current vulnerabilities climatic impact-drivers LAC diverse, complex, region-specific their effects expected be exacerbated by change. However, advancement regional domestic agendas has been hindered scientific gaps, political support, institutional capacity, financial, technical, human, economic limitations common many Transforming data multidimensional metrics with useful thresholds for different sectors understanding contribution feasible strategies delayed local conundrums such as lack inclusive governance, availability, equity, justice, transboundary issues. We discuss ways move forward develop resilient development actions a more sustainable future LAC. science community needs strengthen its local, national, connections decision/policymakers society establish three-way engagement proposing suitable negotiations vulnerability associated extremes, variability discussions insights presented work could extrapolated other countries Global South.

Язык: Английский

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Bias Correction in CMIP6 Models Simulations and Projections for Brazil’s Climate Assessment

Earth Systems and Environment, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 8(1), С. 121 - 134

Опубликована: Янв. 1, 2024

Язык: Английский

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Extreme weather events and crop diversification: climate change adaptation in Brazil

Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 30(5)

Опубликована: Апрель 21, 2025

Язык: Английский

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Multiple dimensions of extreme weather events and their impacts on biodiversity

Climatic Change, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 176(11)

Опубликована: Ноя. 1, 2023

Abstract Climate change is a multidimensional phenomenon. As such, no single metric can capture all trajectories of and associated impacts. While numerous metrics exist to measure climate change, they tend focus on central tendencies neglect the multidimensionality extreme weather events (EWEs). EWEs differ in their frequency, duration, intensity, be described for temperature, precipitation, wind speed, while considering different thresholds defining “extremeness.” We review existing EWE outline framework classifying interpreting them light foreseeable impacts biodiversity. Using an example drawn from Caribbean Central America, we show that reflect unequal spatial patterns exposure across region. Based available evidence, discuss how such relate threats biological populations, empirically demonstrating ecologically informed help processes as mangrove recovery. Unveiling complexity affecting biodiversity only possible through mobilisation plethora metrics. The proposed represents step forward over assessments using dimensions or averages highly variable time series.

Язык: Английский

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Assessment of Precipitation and Hydrological Droughts in South America through Statistically Downscaled CMIP6 Projections

Climate, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 11(8), С. 166 - 166

Опубликована: Авг. 2, 2023

Drought events are critical environmental threats that yield several socioeconomic impacts. Such effects even more relevant for South America (SA) since different activities essential the continent, such as agriculture and energy generation, depend highly on water resources. Thus, this study aimed to evaluate future changes in precipitation hydrological drought occurrence SA through climate projections from eight global models (GCMs) of CMIP6. To end, statistical downscaling was applied obtained using quantile delta mapping technique, method proved be efficient reducing systematic biases preserving GCMs’ trends. For following decades, results show considerable statistically significant reductions over most SA, especially during austral spring, with intense signal under SSP5-8.5 forcing scenario. Furthermore, GCMs showed mixed signals about frequency intensity events. Still, they indicated agreement regarding increased duration severity continent a substantial proportion moderate severe Brazil 21st century. These can helpful better management resources by decision-makers planners.

Язык: Английский

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Exploring the influence of improved horizontal resolution on extreme precipitation in Southern Africa major river basins: insights from CMIP6 HighResMIP simulations

Climate Dynamics, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 62(8), С. 8099 - 8120

Опубликована: Июль 4, 2024

Язык: Английский

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Exposure of protected areas in Central America to extreme weather events

Conservation Biology, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 38(4)

Опубликована: Март 10, 2024

Abstract Central America and the Caribbean are regularly battered by megadroughts, heavy rainfall, heat waves, tropical cyclones. Although 21st‐century climate change is expected to increase frequency, intensity, duration of these extreme weather events (EWEs), their incidence in regional protected areas (PAs) remains poorly explored. We examined historical projected EWEs across region based on 32 metrics that describe distinct dimensions (i.e., duration, frequency) cyclones, droughts, rainfall compared trends PAs with unprotected lands. From early 21st century onward, exposure increased region, were predicted be more exposed extremes than (as shown autoregressive model coefficients at p < 0.05 significance level). This was particularly true for which have a significantly higher average (tested Wilcoxon tests 0.01) intensity affected severely carbon‐intensive scenarios. also less droughts 0.01). However, could threaten connectivity between increasingly common this region. estimated approximately 65% study area will experience least one drought episode intense longer lasting previous droughts. Collectively, our results highlight new conservation strategies adapted threats associated need tailored implemented promptly. Unless urgent action taken, significant damage may inflicted unique biodiversity

Язык: Английский

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Historical and future extreme climate events in highly vulnerable small Caribbean Islands

Climate Dynamics, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 62(8), С. 7233 - 7250

Опубликована: Июль 3, 2024

Abstract Small Caribbean islands are on the frontline of climate change because sea level rise, extreme rainfall and temperature events, heavy hurricanes. The Archipelago San Andrés, Providencia, Santa Catalina (SAI), belonging to Colombia declared a Biosphere Reserve by UNESCO. SAI is highly vulnerable impacts but no hydroclimatological study quantified climatic changes yet. This analyzes historical (1960s-2020, 7 stations) future (2071–2100, CMIP6 multi-model ensemble, for four scenarios: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5) trends in mean precipitation duration, frequency, intensity. We find that heatwaves have more than tripled frequency doubled their maximum duration since end ‘80 s. Precipitation historically reduced 5%, with reduction recorded 5 stations an increase 2, while events significantly increased intensity most stations. hotter-and-drier amplified all scenarios, much drier extremes (e.g., -0.5─-17% wet days, +8%─30% consecutive dry +60%─89% hot days). Although we show hurricanes Categories IV V near (< 600 km) the’60 s, only small fraction archipelago associated or tropical storms. La Niña also substantial influence precipitation. Interestingly, opposite heterogeneous found across such territory 30 km 2 ). Thus, downscaled hydrometeorological data model simulations essential investigate strengthen islands' adaptation efforts.

Язык: Английский

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Agricultural resilience: Impact of extreme weather events on the adoption of rural insurance in Brazil

Global Environmental Change, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 89, С. 102938 - 102938

Опубликована: Окт. 12, 2024

Язык: Английский

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Performance of the medium and high horizontal resolution models from HighResMIP-CMIP6 in simulating synoptic-scale cyclones over South America

Climate Dynamics, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 63(1)

Опубликована: Янв. 1, 2025

Язык: Английский

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