Prediction of drought-flood prone zones in inland mountainous regions under climate change with assessment and enhancement strategies for disaster resilience in high-standard farmland
Agricultural Water Management,
Год журнала:
2025,
Номер
309, С. 109349 - 109349
Опубликована: Фев. 5, 2025
Язык: Английский
Prediction of Drought Thresholds Triggering Winter Wheat Yield Losses in the Future Based on the CNN-LSTM Model and Copula Theory: A Case Study of Henan Province
Agronomy,
Год журнала:
2025,
Номер
15(4), С. 954 - 954
Опубликована: Апрель 14, 2025
As
global
warming
progresses,
quantifying
drought
thresholds
for
crop
yield
losses
is
crucial
food
security
and
sustainable
agriculture.
Based
on
the
CNN-LSTM
model
Copula
function,
this
study
constructs
a
conditional
probability
framework
under
future
climate
change.
It
analyzes
relationship
between
Standardized
Precipitation–Evapotranspiration
Index
(SPEI)
winter
wheat
yield,
assesses
vulnerability
of
in
various
regions
to
stress,
quantifies
The
results
showed
that
(1)
SPEI
Zhoukou,
Sanmenxia,
Nanyang
was
significantly
correlated
with
yield;
(2)
southern
eastern
higher
than
center,
western,
northern
past
(2000–2023)
(2024–2047);
(3)
there
were
significant
differences
thresholds.
loss
below
30,
50,
70
percentiles
(past/future)
−1.86/−2.47,
−0.85/−1.39,
0.60/0.35
(Xinyang);
−1.45/−2.16,
−0.75/−1.34,
−0.17/−0.43
(Nanyang);
−1.47/−2.24,
−0.97/−1.61,
0.69/0.28
(Zhoukou);
−2.18/−2.86,
−1.80/−2.36,
−0.75/−1.08
(Kaifeng),
indicating
threshold
will
reduce
future.
This
mainly
due
different
soil
conditions
Henan
Province.
In
context
change,
droughts
be
more
frequent.
Hence,
research
provide
valuable
reference
efficient
utilization
agricultural
water
resources
prevention
control
risk
change
Язык: Английский
Estimation of cascading hydroclimatic hazard impacts on supply systems and associated economic shocks
Research Square (Research Square),
Год журнала:
2025,
Номер
unknown
Опубликована: Апрель 28, 2025
Abstract
Emerging
systemic
risks
driven
by
climate
extremes
and
societal
vulnerabilities
are
causing
considerable
damage
to
supply
systems
overall
economies.
In
this
study,
we
combined
hydroclimatic
hazard
impact
supply-driven
input-output
models
develop
an
integrated
approach
for
estimating
the
cascading
impacts
on
food,
electricity,
water
associated
with
droughts,
floods,
heatwaves.
National-level
results
Sweden
indicate
moderate
strong
associations
between
annual
variables
monthly
indices(\(0.43
\leq
R^2
0.70\))
at
municipal
units.
Economic
modeling
revealed
losses
in
key
sectors,
such
as
agriculture,
energy,
insurance.
The
from
economic
show
that
hazards
2005
2022
inflicted
€7.2
billion
of
Of
this,
flood-related
represented
largest
share,
totaling
€3.8
billion,
followed
drought-induced
shortages
(€2.6
billion),
heatwave
(€784
million).
Язык: Английский
Impact of floods on rice production in West Africa: Micro-evidence from Benin
Sustainable Environment,
Год журнала:
2024,
Номер
10(1)
Опубликована: Май 22, 2024
Floods
are
a
climatic
risk
that
can
result
in
significant
yield
losses
for
smallholder
farmers.
In
this
study,
the
impacts
of
2012
floods
on
rice
productivity
Benin
were
investigated.
A
socioeconomic
and
survey
150
farmers
was
conducted
17
villages
across
2
districts
highly
vulnerable
to
climate
change.
The
generalised
propensity
score
method
employed
account
continuous
nature
treatment
variable,
with
results
indicating
decrease
accompanied
by
an
increase
flooded
farm
proportion.
expected
10%
land
7.20
tons/ha
throughout
year.
Additionally,
proportion
from
20%
resulted
1.19
yield.
During
wet
season,
negatively
impacted
yield,
irrespective
their
severity.
Conversely,
flooding
benefited
production
dry
season
following
flooding.
These
findings
offer
policymakers
insight
into
appropriate
protection
plans
adaptation
strategies.
Язык: Английский
Agricultural Insurance Premium Determination Model for Risk Mitigation Based on Rainfall Index: Systematic Literature Review
Risks,
Год журнала:
2024,
Номер
12(12), С. 205 - 205
Опубликована: Дек. 18, 2024
Rainfall
is
significantly
essential
in
the
agricultural
sector
to
increase
productivity.
However,
rainfall
instability
serves
as
a
potential
source
of
risk,
causing
crop
failure
and
negatively
impacting
welfare
farmers.
To
mitigate
this
index-based
insurance
offers
financial
protection
There
no
information
on
how
set
reasonable
premium
insurance.
Therefore,
research
aimed
systematically
explore
model
for
determining
premium,
focusing
methods
used
their
effectiveness
mitigating
risk
harvest
sector.
The
Preferred
Reporting
Items
Systematic
Review
Meta-Analysis
(PRISMA)
method
bibliometric
analysis
were
collect
analyze
articles
from
Scopus,
ScienceDirect,
Dimensions
databases.
results
showed
that
there
15
where
4
Black–Scholes
11
applied
other
main
methods.
Meanwhile,
fractional
premiums
based
index,
providing
new
opportunities
further
research.
contributed
development
determination
could
generate
more
diverse
flexible
estimates
sustainable
failure.
This
expected
serve
reference
developing
future
contribute
Government
Agriculture
Department’s
policy
formulation
regarding
programs
Язык: Английский