Research Square (Research Square),
Год журнала:
2023,
Номер
unknown
Опубликована: Май 3, 2023
Abstract
Dry
spells
have
negative
implications
for
water
security
and
agriculture.
Climate
changes
associated
with
increasing
temperature
precipitation
variations
lead
to
in
dry
spell
durations.
The
variability
of
the
duration
during
rainy
season
(May–October)
over
Indo-China
Peninsula
(ICP)
was
analyzed,
contributions
respect
trend
total
(TDDS)
were
quantified
using
linear
regression
methods.
results
indicate
a
rate
0.9
days/10
year
entire
ICP.
Nevertheless,
trends
presented
great
spatial
variability,
37.4%
10.7%
peninsula
significant
decreasing
at
95%
confidence
level,
respectively.
warming
has
led
considerable
elongation
5.3
days/°C,
areas
less
than
1000
mm
higher
2000
generally
show
faster
increases.
change
rates
are
clearly
asymmetrically
distributed
duration,
hotter
seasons
witnessing
more
frequent
long-duration
spells.
On
other
hand,
shortens
spells,
while
facilitates
extension
caused
by
rising
temperatures.
As
climate
continues
warm,
will
favor
prolonged
which
further
exacerbate
drought
heat
waves
These
research
expected
provide
reference
agricultural
activities,
resources
management,
disaster
prevention
International Journal of Climatology,
Год журнала:
2024,
Номер
44(11), С. 4127 - 4141
Опубликована: Июль 23, 2024
Abstract
One
of
the
frequently
used
drought
metrics
in
scientific
research
is
consecutive
dry
days
(CDDs)
because
it
effectively
indicates
short‐term
droughts
important
to
ecosystems
and
agriculture.
CDDs
are
expected
increase
many
parts
world
future.
In
Serbia,
both
frequency
severity
have
increased
recent
decades,
with
most
being
caused
by
a
lack
precipitation
during
warmer
months
year
an
evapotranspiration
due
higher
temperatures.
this
study,
duration
extreme
growing
season
Serbia
were
analysed
for
past
(1950–2019)
future
(2020–2100)
period.
The
Threshold
Level
Method
over
data
series
was
analyse
CDD
events,
where
defined
as
at
least
15
without
precipitation.
contrast
original
definition
maximum
number
less
than
1
mm,
here
we
threshold
that
more
suitable
agriculture
field
crops
can
experience
water
stress
after
no
rainfall
or
irrigation.
An
approach
modelling
stochastic
process
based
on
Zelenhasić–Todorović
(ZT)
method
applied
research.
ZT
modified
selecting
different
distribution
function
durations
longest
enabling
reliable
calculation
probabilities
occurrences.
According
results,
likely
be
frequent
severe
those
past.
will
extended
future,
lasting
up
62
10‐year
return
period
94
100‐year
Results
indicate
worsening
conditions,
especially
eastern
northern
Serbia.
results
help
decision‐makers
adapt
agricultural
strategies
climate
change
providing
information
rainless
periods
seasons.
Although
analysis
performed
any
other
region.
Northwest
China
is
a
typical
arid
and
semi-arid
region
that
part
of
Central
Asia.
However,
during
the
past
60
years,
climate
in
has
shown
warm
humid
trend,
with
both
average
extreme
precipitation
continuing
to
increase.
Humidification
mainly
caused
by
anomalous
westward
water
vapor
transport.
Change
transport
path
directly
related
Mongolian
anticyclone
anomaly
weakening
Asian
summer
monsoon.
Our
research
shows
interdecadal
changes
sea
surface
temperature
(SST)
North
Atlantic,
Pacific,
Indian
oceans,
play
an
important
role
adjustment
atmospheric
circulation
wetting
over
China.
Since
1980s,
Ocean
been
warming
continuously,
land–sea
thermal
gradient
weakened,
resulting
significant
reduction
In
contrast,
northerly
from
polar
increased.
Concurrently,
SST
Atlantic
also
warming,
multidecadal
oscillation
(AMO)
negative
positive
phase,
triggering
anticyclones
Mongolia,
which
leads
Therefore,
eastern
affected
abnormal
northeast
winds.
These
winds
can
continuously
western
China,
leading
prevalence
easterly
Moreover,
Pacific
decadal
(PDO)
changed
phase
after
1990s,
promoted
East
westerly
jet
move
Arctic
produce
anomalies
Asia
Interdecadal
Indian,
Oceans
all
have
reduced
Ocean.
high
latitudes
(including
region)
be
transported
through
anomalies,
increased
humidification.
International Journal of Climatology,
Год журнала:
2023,
Номер
43(6), С. 2699 - 2718
Опубликована: Янв. 9, 2023
Abstract
This
study
analyses
the
spring
climate
anomalies
under
different
configurations
of
western
North
Pacific
anticyclone
(WNPA)
and
Siberian
high
(SH).
Compared
to
WNPA
alone
with
increased
precipitation
over
southern
China,
out‐of‐phase
configuration
(strong‐WNPA–weak‐SH)
can
enhance
WNPA‐related
southwesterlies
eastern
favouring
larger
amplitude
China
Northeast
China.
Differently,
in‐phase
(strong‐WNPA–strong‐SH)
decreases
confines
causing
decreased
Southwest
China;
additionally,
converge
SH‐related
northwesterlies
lower
reaches
Yangtze
River,
there.
For
surface
air
temperature,
induces
warming
through
changing
heat
flux,
while
SH
cooling
northern
temperature
advection,
Northwest
flux.
In
configuration,
expands
into
Northern
due
cooperation
weakening
SH.
mainly
occurs
north
River
because
obstruction
WNPA.
Further
analysis
indicates
(EP)
central
(CP)
El
Niño‐Southern
Oscillation
(ENSO),
European
low
Ural
contribute
The
EP
ENSO‐related
zonal
overturning
circulation
intensifies
low‐induced
warm
advection
weakens
SH,
resulting
in
configuration.
CP
a
northeast–southwest
tilt
high‐induced
cold
International Journal of Climatology,
Год журнала:
2023,
Номер
43(16), С. 8120 - 8136
Опубликована: Ноя. 15, 2023
Abstract
The
Yangtze
River
basin
(YRB)
has
experienced
frequent
extreme
drought
events
in
recent
years.
Many
studies
have
explored
the
impact
of
anomalous
tropical
sea
surface
temperatures
on
seasonal
meteorological
droughts
over
YRB,
yet
two
critical
issues
remain:
(1)
regimes
El
Niño–Southern
Oscillation
(ENSO)
and
Indian
Ocean
Dipole
(IOD)
causing
YRB
droughts;
(2)
timing
spatial
pattern
caused
by
ENSO
IOD.
To
address
these
knowledge
gaps,
we
employed
a
comprehensive
investigation.
First,
Severity–Area–Density
(SAD)
method
is
applied
to
identify
during
1971–2022.
Second,
utilize
composite
analysis
specify
effects
Our
findings
indicate
that
are
significantly
increased
August
combined
Eastern
Pacific
(EP)
Niño
positive
IOD
developing
years,
October
Central
(CP)
January
EP
La
Niña
April
CP
decaying
Third,
conduct
numerical
simulations
conclude
contribute
modulating
large‐scale
circulation
patterns,
triggering
formation
cyclones
anticyclones
Western
North
(WNP)
Tibetan
Plateau,
affecting
westerlies
other
water
vapour
transport
processes.
These
results
physical
mechanisms
can
guide
monitoring
prediction
region.
International Journal of Climatology,
Год журнала:
2023,
Номер
43(16), С. 7700 - 7721
Опубликована: Ноя. 8, 2023
Abstract
The
Northeast
of
Brazil
(NEB)
is
influenced
by
the
phases
El
Niño–Southern
Oscillation
(ENSO),
which
are
associated
with
increased
or
decreased
rainfall
in
East
NEB
(ENEB).
study
evaluated
effects
extreme
ENSO
on
extremes
ENEB.
Rainfall
data
from
54
stations
Alagoas
were
obtained
National
Water
and
Basic
Sanitation
Agency
(ANA)
subjected
to
statistical
analysis,
a
imputation
method
used
fill
gaps
time
series.
Inverse
Distance
Weighting
(IDW)
was
consistent
suitable
for
spatially
representing
state
Alagoas,
according
adopted
indicators.
Extreme,
decadal
anomaly
maps
interpolated
using
IDW
Quantum
GIS
(QGIS),
due
positioning
stations.
criteria
analysing
years
based
Oceanic
Niño
Index
(ONI)
region
3.4,
between
1960
2016.
results
show
high
interannual
variability
climatic
mesoregions
Alagoas.
In
over
70%
years,
below
average
(during
strong
very
Niño)
above
La
Niña).
Some
cities
experienced
higher
than
others,
even
situations,
suggesting
influence
physiography
multiscale
meteorological
systems.
On
scale,
recorded
highest
accumulations,
primarily
two
cores,
corresponding
Metropolitan
Region
Maceió
(MRM)
northern
part
state.
An
exception
Upper
São
Francisco
region,
experiences
dry
decades.
mesoregion
(coast)
had
records
compared
more
continental
(Hinterland
Arid),
regardless
scales.
Journal of Water and Climate Change,
Год журнала:
2022,
Номер
13(8), С. 2972 - 2990
Опубликована: Июль 19, 2022
Abstract
In
view
of
the
key
factor
in
regional
hydrological
processes
and
water
resource
management,
temporal
patterns
precipitation
anomalies
oscillations
were
detected
by
Quantile
Perturbation
Method
(QPM)
Singular
Spectrum
Analysis
(SSA)
Method,
spatial
identified
using
Principal
Component
(PCA)
Method.
addition,
teleconnections
lagged
influence
with
large-scale
climate
Yangtze
River
Delta
(YRD)
China
from
1957
to
2016
also
analyzed.
Results
showed
that,
temporally,
main
all
found
be
2,
7–11
3–4
years
annual
seasonal
scales.
Precipitation
quantiles
are
subject
strong
at
(multi-)decadal
time
scales,
high
low
specific
periods.
Spatially,
whole
region
could
divided
into
two
sub-regions
respectively.
Among
selected
this
study,
Pacific
Decadal
Oscillation
(PDO)
has
a
stronger
on
March,
July
September,
but
significant
correlations
more
than
18%
total
stations.
These
stations
mainly
southeast
regions.
The
North
index
(NP)
controlled
February
(13.95%
stations)
October
(37.21%
north
region.
Generally,
indicators
Southern
Index
(SOI)
Oceanic
Niño
4
SST
(ONI)
had
strongest
variations,
20%
November.
Also,
have
delayed
way
precipitation.
oscillations,
Arctic
(AO)
Atlantic
(NAO)
that
cross-correlations
0
3–5
months,
NP
many
when
lag
was
0–3
months.
PDO,
SOI
ONI
greater
south
region,
0–3,
2–3
1–5
results
will
provide
basis
for
taking
relevant
measures
deal
problems
meteorological
disaster
supplement
under
change.
Frontiers in Earth Science,
Год журнала:
2023,
Номер
11
Опубликована: Март 20, 2023
Northeast
China
(NEC)
is
a
major
crop
base
in
East
Asia,
and
summer
drought
one
of
the
climate
extremes
that
significantly
influences
NEC
agricultural
production.
Therefore,
understanding
response
to
global
warming
significance.
In
this
study,
based
on
observation
large-ensemble
simulations
Community
Earth
System
Model
(CESM-LE),
variabilities
extreme
consecutive
dry
days
(CDDs)
over
are
investigated
present
future
climate.
observation,
CDDs
showed
an
increasing
trend
during
past
half
century
experienced
significant
interdecadal
change
around
middle
1990s,
which
mainly
due
anticyclone
Lake
Baikal-Northeast
Asia.
The
anticyclone-related
anomalous
downward
motion
moisture
divergence
provided
favorable
conditions
for
increased
NEC.
CESM-LE
multimember
ensemble
(MME)
simulation
could
reproduce
its
related
atmospheric
circulations,
indicating
observed
be
largely
contributed
by
anthropogenic
forcing.
warmer
climate,
projected
show
variability,
increase
approximately
6.7%
early
21st
(2020–2030),
then
decrease
0.3%
late
(2040–2080),
further
2.1%
(2085–2100).
addition,
changes
Asia
similar
feature
CDDs,
might
provide
some
confidence
projection
physical
connection
between
future.
Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres,
Год журнала:
2022,
Номер
127(6)
Опубликована: Март 12, 2022
Abstract
It
is
well
known
that
the
El
Niño‐Southern
Oscillation
(ENSO)
has
a
profound
impact
on
climate
over
southern
China
(SC).
This
study
indicates
independent
from
ENSO
variability,
meridional
tripolar
sea
surface
temperature
(SST)
pattern
tropical‐North
Pacific
in
February
close
relationship
with
interannual
variations
frequency
of
spring
extreme
consecutive
dry
days
(extreme‐CDDs)
SC.
Further
analyses
suggest
SST
good
persistence
to
following
and
could
influence
SC
extreme‐CDDs
through
two
ways.
On
one
hand,
extratropical
anomalies
can
cause
shift
North
subarctic
oceanic
front,
resulting
dipole
atmospheric
region
East
Asia
eddy‐mean
flow
interaction.
The
Asian
upper‐level
jet
western
subtropical
high
(WPSH),
leading
anomalous
vertical
motion
moisture
transport
other
tropical
excite
an
overturning
circulation
WPSH
Matsuno‐Gill
response,
also
contributing
These
physical
processes
are
further
confirmed
by
numerical
simulations.
Therefore,
aforementioned
ways,
dynamical
conditions
associated
occurrence
extreme‐CDDs,
consequently
providing
factor
predictor
for
extreme‐CDDs.