Observed characteristics and projected future changes of extreme consecutive dry days events of the growing season in Serbia

International Journal of Climatology, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 44(11), С. 4127 - 4141

Опубликована: Июль 23, 2024

Abstract One of the frequently used drought metrics in scientific research is consecutive dry days (CDDs) because it effectively indicates short‐term droughts important to ecosystems and agriculture. CDDs are expected increase many parts world future. In Serbia, both frequency severity have increased recent decades, with most being caused by a lack precipitation during warmer months year an evapotranspiration due higher temperatures. this study, duration extreme growing season Serbia were analysed for past (1950–2019) future (2020–2100) period. The Threshold Level Method over data series was analyse CDD events, where defined as at least 15 without precipitation. contrast original definition maximum number less than 1 mm, here we threshold that more suitable agriculture field crops can experience water stress after no rainfall or irrigation. An approach modelling stochastic process based on Zelenhasić–Todorović (ZT) method applied research. ZT modified selecting different distribution function durations longest enabling reliable calculation probabilities occurrences. According results, likely be frequent severe those past. will extended future, lasting up 62 10‐year return period 94 100‐year Results indicate worsening conditions, especially eastern northern Serbia. results help decision‐makers adapt agricultural strategies climate change providing information rainless periods seasons. Although analysis performed any other region.

Язык: Английский

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Modulation of sea surface temperature in three oceans on precipitation increase over Northwest China during the past 60 years: A review

Frontiers in Climate, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 4

Опубликована: Ноя. 8, 2022

Northwest China is a typical arid and semi-arid region that part of Central Asia. However, during the past 60 years, climate in has shown warm humid trend, with both average extreme precipitation continuing to increase. Humidification mainly caused by anomalous westward water vapor transport. Change transport path directly related Mongolian anticyclone anomaly weakening Asian summer monsoon. Our research shows interdecadal changes sea surface temperature (SST) North Atlantic, Pacific, Indian oceans, play an important role adjustment atmospheric circulation wetting over China. Since 1980s, Ocean been warming continuously, land–sea thermal gradient weakened, resulting significant reduction In contrast, northerly from polar increased. Concurrently, SST Atlantic also warming, multidecadal oscillation (AMO) negative positive phase, triggering anticyclones Mongolia, which leads Therefore, eastern affected abnormal northeast winds. These winds can continuously western China, leading prevalence easterly Moreover, Pacific decadal (PDO) changed phase after 1990s, promoted East westerly jet move Arctic produce anomalies Asia Interdecadal Indian, Oceans all have reduced Ocean. high latitudes (including region) be transported through anomalies, increased humidification.

Язык: Английский

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Influence of different configurations of western North Pacific anticyclone and Siberian high on spring climate over China

International Journal of Climatology, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 43(6), С. 2699 - 2718

Опубликована: Янв. 9, 2023

Abstract This study analyses the spring climate anomalies under different configurations of western North Pacific anticyclone (WNPA) and Siberian high (SH). Compared to WNPA alone with increased precipitation over southern China, out‐of‐phase configuration (strong‐WNPA–weak‐SH) can enhance WNPA‐related southwesterlies eastern favouring larger amplitude China Northeast China. Differently, in‐phase (strong‐WNPA–strong‐SH) decreases confines causing decreased Southwest China; additionally, converge SH‐related northwesterlies lower reaches Yangtze River, there. For surface air temperature, induces warming through changing heat flux, while SH cooling northern temperature advection, Northwest flux. In configuration, expands into Northern due cooperation weakening SH. mainly occurs north River because obstruction WNPA. Further analysis indicates (EP) central (CP) El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO), European low Ural contribute The EP ENSO‐related zonal overturning circulation intensifies low‐induced warm advection weakens SH, resulting in configuration. CP a northeast–southwest tilt high‐induced cold

Язык: Английский

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ENSO and IOD contributions to seasonal meteorological droughts over the Yangtze River basin

International Journal of Climatology, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 43(16), С. 8120 - 8136

Опубликована: Ноя. 15, 2023

Abstract The Yangtze River basin (YRB) has experienced frequent extreme drought events in recent years. Many studies have explored the impact of anomalous tropical sea surface temperatures on seasonal meteorological droughts over YRB, yet two critical issues remain: (1) regimes El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) causing YRB droughts; (2) timing spatial pattern caused by ENSO IOD. To address these knowledge gaps, we employed a comprehensive investigation. First, Severity–Area–Density (SAD) method is applied to identify during 1971–2022. Second, utilize composite analysis specify effects Our findings indicate that are significantly increased August combined Eastern Pacific (EP) Niño positive IOD developing years, October Central (CP) January EP La Niña April CP decaying Third, conduct numerical simulations conclude contribute modulating large‐scale circulation patterns, triggering formation cyclones anticyclones Western North (WNP) Tibetan Plateau, affecting westerlies other water vapour transport processes. These results physical mechanisms can guide monitoring prediction region.

Язык: Английский

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Effects of extreme phases of El Niño–Southern Oscillation on rainfall extremes in Alagoas, Brazil

International Journal of Climatology, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 43(16), С. 7700 - 7721

Опубликована: Ноя. 8, 2023

Abstract The Northeast of Brazil (NEB) is influenced by the phases El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which are associated with increased or decreased rainfall in East NEB (ENEB). study evaluated effects extreme ENSO on extremes ENEB. Rainfall data from 54 stations Alagoas were obtained National Water and Basic Sanitation Agency (ANA) subjected to statistical analysis, a imputation method used fill gaps time series. Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW) was consistent suitable for spatially representing state Alagoas, according adopted indicators. Extreme, decadal anomaly maps interpolated using IDW Quantum GIS (QGIS), due positioning stations. criteria analysing years based Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) region 3.4, between 1960 2016. results show high interannual variability climatic mesoregions Alagoas. In over 70% years, below average (during strong very Niño) above La Niña). Some cities experienced higher than others, even situations, suggesting influence physiography multiscale meteorological systems. On scale, recorded highest accumulations, primarily two cores, corresponding Metropolitan Region Maceió (MRM) northern part state. An exception Upper São Francisco region, experiences dry decades. mesoregion (coast) had records compared more continental (Hinterland Arid), regardless scales.

Язык: Английский

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Change patterns of precipitation anomalies and possible teleconnections with large-scale climate oscillations over the Yangtze River Delta, China

Journal of Water and Climate Change, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 13(8), С. 2972 - 2990

Опубликована: Июль 19, 2022

Abstract In view of the key factor in regional hydrological processes and water resource management, temporal patterns precipitation anomalies oscillations were detected by Quantile Perturbation Method (QPM) Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) Method, spatial identified using Principal Component (PCA) Method. addition, teleconnections lagged influence with large-scale climate Yangtze River Delta (YRD) China from 1957 to 2016 also analyzed. Results showed that, temporally, main all found be 2, 7–11 3–4 years annual seasonal scales. Precipitation quantiles are subject strong at (multi-)decadal time scales, high low specific periods. Spatially, whole region could divided into two sub-regions respectively. Among selected this study, Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) has a stronger on March, July September, but significant correlations more than 18% total stations. These stations mainly southeast regions. The North index (NP) controlled February (13.95% stations) October (37.21% north region. Generally, indicators Southern Index (SOI) Oceanic Niño 4 SST (ONI) had strongest variations, 20% November. Also, have delayed way precipitation. oscillations, Arctic (AO) Atlantic (NAO) that cross-correlations 0 3–5 months, NP many when lag was 0–3 months. PDO, SOI ONI greater south region, 0–3, 2–3 1–5 results will provide basis for taking relevant measures deal problems meteorological disaster supplement under change.

Язык: Английский

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Summer extreme consecutive dry days over Northeast China in the changing climate: Observed features and projected future changes based on CESM-LE

Frontiers in Earth Science, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 11

Опубликована: Март 20, 2023

Northeast China (NEC) is a major crop base in East Asia, and summer drought one of the climate extremes that significantly influences NEC agricultural production. Therefore, understanding response to global warming significance. In this study, based on observation large-ensemble simulations Community Earth System Model (CESM-LE), variabilities extreme consecutive dry days (CDDs) over are investigated present future climate. observation, CDDs showed an increasing trend during past half century experienced significant interdecadal change around middle 1990s, which mainly due anticyclone Lake Baikal-Northeast Asia. The anticyclone-related anomalous downward motion moisture divergence provided favorable conditions for increased NEC. CESM-LE multimember ensemble (MME) simulation could reproduce its related atmospheric circulations, indicating observed be largely contributed by anthropogenic forcing. warmer climate, projected show variability, increase approximately 6.7% early 21st (2020–2030), then decrease 0.3% late (2040–2080), further 2.1% (2085–2100). addition, changes Asia similar feature CDDs, might provide some confidence projection physical connection between future.

Язык: Английский

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Impacts of a Tripolar Sea Surface Temperature Pattern Over Tropical‐North Pacific on Interannual Variations of Spring Extreme Consecutive Dry Days Over Southern China

Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 127(6)

Опубликована: Март 12, 2022

Abstract It is well known that the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has a profound impact on climate over southern China (SC). This study indicates independent from ENSO variability, meridional tripolar sea surface temperature (SST) pattern tropical‐North Pacific in February close relationship with interannual variations frequency of spring extreme consecutive dry days (extreme‐CDDs) SC. Further analyses suggest SST good persistence to following and could influence SC extreme‐CDDs through two ways. On one hand, extratropical anomalies can cause shift North subarctic oceanic front, resulting dipole atmospheric region East Asia eddy‐mean flow interaction. The Asian upper‐level jet western subtropical high (WPSH), leading anomalous vertical motion moisture transport other tropical excite an overturning circulation WPSH Matsuno‐Gill response, also contributing These physical processes are further confirmed by numerical simulations. Therefore, aforementioned ways, dynamical conditions associated occurrence extreme‐CDDs, consequently providing factor predictor for extreme‐CDDs.

Язык: Английский

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Enhanced relationship between February Aleutian low and spring extreme consecutive dry days in the Yangtze-Huai River region in recent two decades: roles of Bering Sea ice and stratospheric polar vortex

Climate Dynamics, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 61(11-12), С. 5131 - 5146

Опубликована: Июль 7, 2023

Язык: Английский

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Inter-decadal shift of spring drought over China around the late 1990s and the possible mechanisms

Atmospheric Research, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 299, С. 107197 - 107197

Опубликована: Дек. 21, 2023

Язык: Английский

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