21st Century alpine climate change

Climate Dynamics, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 60(1-2), С. 65 - 86

Опубликована: Май 10, 2022

Abstract A comprehensive assessment of twenty-first century climate change in the European Alps is presented. The analysis based on EURO-CORDEX regional model ensemble available at two grid spacings (12.5 and 50 km) for three different greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCPs 2.6, 4.5 8.5). core simulation has been subject to a dedicated evaluation exercise carried out frame CH2018 Climate Scenarios Switzerland. Results reveal that entire Alpine region will face warmer course all considered. Strongest warming projected summer season, regions south main ridge high-end RCP 8.5 scenario. Depending medium high elevations might experience an amplified warming. Model uncertainty can be considerable, but major patterns are consistent across ensemble. For precipitation, seasonal shift precipitation amounts from winter over most parts domain projected. However, individual simulations show signals opposite sign. Daily intensity increase seasons sub-domains, while wet-day frequency decrease season. temperature negatively correlated with change, i.e. and/or strong mean typically stronger decrease. By contrast, positive correlation between found winter. Among other indicators, snow cover strongly affected by climatic changes widespread except very elevation settings. In general magnitude increases assumed forcing, i.e., smallest 2.6 largest being located between. These results largely agree previous works older generations RCM ensembles but, due comparatively large size spatial resolution, allow more decent inherent projection uncertainties details future change.

Язык: Английский

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Exacerbated summer European warming not captured by climate models neglecting long-term aerosol changes

Communications Earth & Environment, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 5(1)

Опубликована: Апрель 6, 2024

Abstract In much of western-central Europe, summer temperatures have surged three times faster than the global mean warming since 1980, yet this is not captured by most climate model simulations. Here we disentangle into thermodynamic and circulation-induced contributions, show that latter main reason why numerically simulated weaker observed. Crucially, regional models from Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment with constant aerosol forcings systematically strongest discrepancies observations: in these simulations, brightening associated due to reductions represented. We estimate an effect ~0.5 °C over Europe for our ensemble, discrepancy evolving aerosols increases future projections. To better reap benefits high-resolution it thus imperative represent relevant external responses across entire chain.

Язык: Английский

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Predicting extreme sub-hourly precipitation intensification based on temperature shifts

Hydrology and earth system sciences, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 28(2), С. 375 - 389

Опубликована: Янв. 31, 2024

Abstract. Extreme sub-hourly precipitation, typically convective in nature, is capable of triggering natural disasters such as floods and debris flows. A key component climate change adaptation resilience quantifying the likelihood that extreme precipitation will exceed historical levels future scenarios. Despite this, current approaches to estimating return are deemed insufficient. The reason for this can be attributed two factors: there limited availability data from convection-permitting models (capable simulating adequately) statistical methods we use extrapolate do not capture physics governing global warming. We present a novel physical-based method levels. proposed model, named TEmperature-dependent Non-Asymptotic model eXtreme (TENAX), based on parsimonious non-stationary non-asymptotic theoretical framework incorporates temperature covariate physically consistent manner. first explain theory TENAX model. Using several stations Switzerland case study, demonstrate model's ability reproduce some observed properties precipitation. then illustrate how utilized project changes warmer only projections temperatures during wet days foreseen frequency. conclude by discussing uncertainties associated with its limitations, advantages. With one extremes at different daily scale any location globally where observations near-surface air available.

Язык: Английский

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KNMI'23 Climate Scenarios for the Netherlands: Storyline Scenarios of Regional Climate Change

Earth s Future, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 12(2)

Опубликована: Фев. 1, 2024

Abstract This paper presents the methodology for construction of KNMI'23 national climate scenarios Netherlands. We have developed six scenarios, that cover a substantial part uncertainty in CMIP6 projections future change region. Different sources are disentangled as much possible, partly by means storyline approach. Uncertainty emissions is covered making conditional on different SSP (SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5, and SSP5‐8.5). For each scenario time horizon (2050, 2100, 2150), we determine global warming level based median constrained estimates sensitivity from IPCC AR6. The remaining model regional response at these levels two storylines, which designed with focus annual seasonal mean precipitation (a dry‐trending wet‐trending variant SSP). choice was motivated importance water management to society. users specific interests provide how account impact sensitivity. Since GCM data do not required spatial detail modeling, reconstruct responses resampling internal variability GCM‐RCM initial‐condition ensemble. resulting form detailed plausible climates can be used calculations assessments stakeholders, will inform policy sectors Dutch

Язык: Английский

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Evaluation of Dynamically Downscaled CMIP6‐CCAM Models Over Australia

Earth s Future, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 11(11)

Опубликована: Ноя. 1, 2023

Abstract High‐resolution climate change projections are increasingly necessary to inform policy and adaptation planning. Downscaling of global models (GCMs) is required simulate the at spatial scale relevant for local impacts. Here, we dynamically downscaled 15 CMIP6 GCMs a 10 km resolution over Australia using Conformal Cubic Atmospheric model (CCAM), creating largest ensemble high‐resolution Australia. We compared host simulations Australian Gridded Climate Data (AGCD) observational data evaluated performance Kling‐Gupta efficiency Perkins skill score. improved seasonal temperature precipitation (10% 43% respectively), annual cycles (6% 13% respectively). also fraction dry days, reducing bias too many low‐rain days. The improvements were found in extremes, with enhancements extreme minimum temperatures all seasons varying from 142% 201%, 52% Austral winter 47% summer. average integrated score by 16%. Temperature biases reduced mountainous coastal areas. CCAM downscaling outperformed multiple scales regions—continental Australia, IPCC regions Queensland's regions—with added value ranging 9% 150% higher densely populated more exposed This set will be valuable resource understanding future changes

Язык: Английский

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Automated prediction of wet-snow avalanche activity in the Swiss Alps

Journal of Glaciology, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 69(277), С. 1365 - 1378

Опубликована: Май 18, 2023

Abstract Wet-snow avalanches are triggered by the infiltration of liquid water which weakens snowpack. among most destructive avalanches, yet their release mechanism is not sufficiently understood for a process-based prediction model. Therefore, we followed data-driven approach and developed random forest model, depending on slope aspect, to predict local wet-snow avalanche activity at locations 124 automated weather stations distributed throughout Swiss Alps. The input variables were snow data recorded over past 20 years. target variable was based manual observations same 20-year period. To filter out erroneous reports, defined days with in stringent manner, selecting only extreme active or inactive days, reduced size dataset but increased reliability variable. model trained computed from simulated stratigraphy 38 $^\circ$ slopes facing 4 cardinal directions. While development validation done nowcast mode, also studied performance 24-hour forecast mode using numerical (NWP) Overall, good both (f1-score around 0.8). assess beyond definition compared predictions entire Alps, raw 8 winters. We obtained Spearman correlation coefficient 0.71. Hence, our represents step toward application support tools operational forecasting.

Язык: Английский

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Feasting on the ordinary or starving for the exceptional in a warming climate: Phenological synchrony between spongy moth (Lymantria dispar) and budburst of six European tree species

Ecology and Evolution, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 14(2)

Опубликована: Фев. 1, 2024

Global warming is affecting the phenological cycles of plants and animals, altering complex synchronization that has co-evolved over thousands years between interacting species trophic levels. Here, we examined how warmer winter conditions affect timing budburst in six common European trees hatching a generalist leaf-feeding insect, spongy moth

Язык: Английский

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Using regional warming levels to describe future climate change for services and adaptation: Application to the French reference trajectory for adaptation

Climate Services, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 38, С. 100553 - 100553

Опубликована: Март 14, 2025

Язык: Английский

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Analysing spatial patterns of climate change: Climate clusters, hotspots and analogues to support climate risk assessment and communication in Germany

Climate Services, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 30, С. 100373 - 100373

Опубликована: Апрель 1, 2023

The spatial visualization of current and future climate conditions is one key component for assessing related impacts risks in a given territory. A suitable combination statistical methods visualisation techniques allows the creation outputs that support interpretation understanding as well communication complex analysis to wider target audience. present paper describes adopted approaches portray information about change Germany until end 21st century meaningful maps with aim communicate it public decision makers. In particular, conducted analyses focused on assessment regions, hotspots analogues. showing resulting patterns 1) divide country seven clusters, 2) reveal different hotspot areas terms indicators middle 3) provide shifts German cities analogue regions Europe. Results are accompanied recommendations aids supporting correct use practical applications purposes. final map products from these published frame Climate Impact Risk Assessment 2021 were taken up by national media outlets (print audio), education experts stakeholders, benefits limitations choices.

Язык: Английский

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Building design in a changing climate – Future Swiss reference years for building simulations

Climate Services, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 34, С. 100448 - 100448

Опубликована: Фев. 16, 2024

With global climate change, temperatures in Switzerland are projected to rise the coming decades, according national scenarios CH2018. Associated with mean temperature increase, heatwaves expected become longer, more frequent, and intense. The changing will affect indoor as well heating cooling needs. In building design, these climatic changes have be planned for today order ensure a comfortable future. collaboration practitioners, reference data set future is created that specifically targets designers engineers. consists of hourly weather one-year length based on Swiss change These years representative two time periods future: one around 2030 2060. Climate uncertainty considered by using emission (RCP2.6 RCP8.5). Reference provided not only typical year (called Design Year, or DRY) but also an above-average warm summer. available at sites 45 measurement stations across Switzerland, including four inside major cities take urban heat island effect into account. generated applied model provide application example. results point out needs substantially which why adaptation design vital.

Язык: Английский

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