Thermal Development, Mortality, and Fertility of an Apulian Strain of Drosophila suzukii at Different Temperatures

Insects, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 16(1), С. 60 - 60

Опубликована: Янв. 10, 2025

This study explored the thermal response of Drosophila suzukii, an injurious insect pest present in many countries worldwide, at different controlled conditions. species is responsible for several economic losses soft fruit cultivations, develops on ripening fruits, and has capability to quickly adapt new territories climates, closing multiple generations per year. Given its high invasive potential increasing need low-impact control strategies, in-depth exploration biology this stage fundamental. Specimens Italian strain from Apulia were reared growth chambers constant temperatures (6, 9, 13, 18, 20, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 31, 32 33 °C). The life cycle each specimen was individually tracked egg death adults, considering larval stages distinction as well. Besides development mortality, production over temperature been recorded. dataset first analysed according tables studies; then, we also estimated biological parameters most common equations describing development, fertility involved physiologically-based model applications. results confirmed extended information already literature, but with reference a population adapted warmer climates. successfully developed adult 13-29 °C, while between 6-9 29-33 °C limited L2/L3 stages. Optimal are around 26-28 depending stage. provides one complete overviews D. which available current opens door more accurate modelling frameworks.

Язык: Английский

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Does insect trapping truly measure insect populations?

Agricultural and Forest Entomology, Год журнала: 2025, Номер unknown

Опубликована: Фев. 19, 2025

Abstract The measurement process has a well‐known structure and requires tools with proper characteristics, depending on the physical quantities their magnitude. While most fields of research have reliable to support experiments, this is not properly case for measurements in population dynamics insects animals, more general. Monitoring insect species common practice agriculture forest environments, above all develop pest control or biodiversity conservation strategies validate feed decision system tools. Besides development several monitoring techniques, an explicit connection between entomology metrology (the science measurements) still missing. We may ask if current involved populations, as traps instance, respect standard features that should have, they provide ‘proper measurements’ just ‘estimation’. This work analyses pros cons trapping by connecting provides some perspectives which communities focus interact answer questions open.

Язык: Английский

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A general DDE framework to describe insect populations: Why delays are so important?

Ecological Modelling, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 499, С. 110937 - 110937

Опубликована: Ноя. 14, 2024

Язык: Английский

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Towards pest outbreak predictions: Are models supported by field monitoring the new hope?

Ecological Informatics, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 78, С. 102310 - 102310

Опубликована: Сен. 21, 2023

Physiologically-based models are the core of Decision Support Systems (DSS) for insect pest and disease control in cultivated fields. However, large-scale use DSS remains scarce limited, despite continuous update formulation new by literature. The main reason behind this lack real-world relates to purely descriptive approach these models, which usually validated a posteriori. major limiting factors that preclude tools prediction purposes their dependence on time zero initial abundance start simulations. In study, we present theoretical framework includes field monitoring data as an active part population density model simulation, helps overcome obstacles. More specifically, propose application estimator scheme form Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) revised physiologically-based from paper, carry out preliminary test applied case Drosophila suzukii. This study shows simulations conditions is strongly reduced using EKF. Overall, outcome research indicates necessary step move description modelling field.

Язык: Английский

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A bayesian approach for parameterizing and predicting plasmid conjugation dynamics

Scientific Reports, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 15(1)

Опубликована: Март 3, 2025

Population dynamic models that explain and predict the spread of conjugative plasmids are pivotal for understanding microbial evolution engineering microbiomes. However, prediction uncertainty these has rarely been assessed. We adopt a Bayesian approach, employing Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), to parameterize model plasmid conjugation dynamics. This approach treats parameters as random variables whose probability distributions informed by data on population These allow us estimate credible intervals model's predictions. validated this using synthetic with known parameter values experimental mini-RK2, miniaturized counterpart well-characterized widely used RK2 plasmid. Our methodology accurately estimated data, predictions were robust across time scales initial conditions. Incorporating long-term enhances precision estimates related loss accuracy For correctly explained predicted most trends, albeit broader intervals. also improves ranges parameters. in some cases, such growth cells plasmid, inclusion can lead stronger correlations potential identifiability issues between key Overall, our method allows deeper investigation dynamics could potentially be generalized study other mobile genetic elements.

Язык: Английский

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Adaptation of a physiologically based demographic model for predicting the phenology of Cryptoblabes gnidiella with validation in Italian vineyards

Journal of Pest Science, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 98(2), С. 929 - 942

Опубликована: Март 1, 2025

Язык: Английский

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Integration of temperature-driven population model and pest monitoring data to estimate initial conditions and timing of first field invasion: application to the cassava whitefly, Bemisia tabaci

Journal of The Royal Society Interface, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 22(226)

Опубликована: Май 1, 2025

Empirical field data and simulation models are often used separately to monitor analyse the dynamics of insect pest populations over time. Greater insight may be achieved when directly parametrize population dynamic models. In this paper, we use a differential evolution algorithm integrate mechanistic physiological-based monitoring estimate density physiological age first cohort at start monitoring. We introduce an ad hoc temperature-driven life-cycle model Bemisia tabaci in conjunction with data. The likely date local whitefly invasion is estimated, subsequent improvement model’s predictive accuracy. method allows computation incursion by demonstrates that initial somewhat neglected prior studies can improve accuracy simulations. Given increasing availability describing terrestrial arthropods, integration prediction pioneer will lead better decision-making management.

Язык: Английский

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A Bayesian Approach for Parameterizing and Predicting Plasmid Conjugation Dynamics

Research Square (Research Square), Год журнала: 2024, Номер unknown

Опубликована: Авг. 1, 2024

Population dynamic models that explain and predict the spread of conjugative plasmids are pivotal for understanding microbial evolution engineering microbiomes. However, prediction uncertainty these has rarely been assessed. We adopt a Bayesian approach, employing Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), to parameterize model plasmid conjugation dynamics. This approach treats parameters as random variables whose probability distributions informed by data on population These allow us estimate confidence intervals model’s predictions. validated this using synthetic with known parameter values experimental mini-RK2, miniaturized counterpart well-characterized widely used RK2 plasmids. Our methodology accurately estimated data, predictions were robust across time scales initial conditions. Incorporating long-term enhances precision estimates related loss accuracy For correctly explained predicted most trends, albeit broader intervals. Overall, our method allows deeper investigation dynamics could potentially be generalized study other mobile genetic elements.

Язык: Английский

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SIMKEF – A decision support system to predict the infestation probability of Drosophila suzukii

Crop Protection, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 185, С. 106858 - 106858

Опубликована: Авг. 6, 2024

Язык: Английский

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Using a knowledge representation logic to estimate the availability of Imbrasia epimethea (Lepidoptera: Saturniidae), an important edible insect in Subsaharan Africa

Ecological Informatics, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 84, С. 102890 - 102890

Опубликована: Ноя. 12, 2024

Язык: Английский

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