Can Exploratory Modeling of Water Scarcity Vulnerabilities and Robustness Be Scenario Neutral?

Earth s Future, Год журнала: 2020, Номер 8(11)

Опубликована: Сен. 25, 2020

Planning under deep uncertainty, when probabilistic characterizations of the future are unknown, is a major challenge in water resources management. Many planning frameworks advocate for "scenario-neutral" analyses which alternative policies evaluated over plausible scenarios with no assessment their likelihoods. Instead, these use sensitivity analysis to discover uncertain factors have greatest influence on performance. This knowledge can be used design monitoring programs and adaptive that respond changes critical uncertainties. However, scenario-neutral make implicit assumptions about range independence may not consistent coupled human-hydrologic processes influencing system. These could found most important robust, belying neutrality; assuming uniformity decision-relevant implications. study illustrates implications using multistakeholder problem within Colorado River Basin, where hundreds rights holders vie river's limited law prior appropriation. Variance-based performed assess users' vulnerabilities changing hydrologic conditions four experimental designs: (1) samples factors, centered recent historical conditions, (2) informed by climate projections, (3) paleohydrologic reconstructions, (4) spanning all previous designs. Differences sensitivities user robustness rankings across experiments illustrate challenges inferring consequential drivers effective robust management policies.

Язык: Английский

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Developing context-specific frameworks for integrated sustainability assessment of agricultural intensity change: An application for Europe

Environmental Science & Policy, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 137, С. 128 - 142

Опубликована: Сен. 6, 2022

Agriculture plays a central role in achieving most Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). intensification (SI) of agriculture has been proposed as promising concept for safeguarding global food security, while simultaneously protecting the environment and promoting good quality life. However, SI often leads to context-specific sustainability trade-offs. Operationalising thus needs be supported by transparent assessments. In this article, we propose general systematic approach developing frameworks integrated assessment agricultural intensity change. Firstly, specify comprehensive system representation analysing how changes lead multitude outcomes affecting different societal groups across geographical scales. We then introduce procedure identifying attributes that are relevant within particular contexts, respective indicator metrics. Finally, illustrate an framework evaluating wide range pathways Europe. The application revealed processes effects European context but rarely considered These include farmers' health, workers' living conditions, cultural heritage sense place rural communities, animal welfare, impacts on sectors not directly related (e.g., tourism), shrinking ageing population consumers' health. addresses important gaps assessments, represents step forward defining procedures assessments can stimulate informed debate about operationalisation its contribution towards SDGs.

Язык: Английский

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Next generation application of DPSIR for sustainable policy implementation

Current Research in Environmental Sustainability, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 5, С. 100201 - 100201

Опубликована: Дек. 14, 2022

As our societies and natural systems are becoming ever more interconnected, it is critical that sustainable management can adapt to new knowledge from both the ecological social domains, act on in a timely effective manner. This need amplifying Anthropocene as we approaching limit for humanity's safe operating space, leading irreversible change ecosystem function. urgently requires increased attention concern regarding information feedbacks between silos of science, policy society. A web policies place protect health people planet, but ensure they frameworks make sense real-world complexities interlinkages multiple factors. The Drivers-Pressures-State-Impacts-Response (DPSIR) framework was created this purpose, however, its' implicit focus 1) analytical 2) procedural aspects must be made explicit, enable coordination across studies. Continued creation DPSIR derivatives may its impact, while explicit these two improve effectiveness retaining flexibility. We thus propose five elements support development implementation using DPSIR: iteration; risk, uncertainty bias; 3) flexible integration; 4) use quantitative methods, and; 5) clear standard definitions DPSIR. illustrate four cases: Three highlight missing when not fourth case – per-and-polyfluorinated alkyl substances (PFAS) showing potential roadmap successful

Язык: Английский

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Impact assessment culture in the European Union. Time for something new?

Environmental Science & Policy, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 142, С. 99 - 111

Опубликована: Фев. 16, 2023

Current approaches and cultures for the economic evaluations of environmental health policies may suffer from excessive reliance on a standard neoclassic toolbox that neglects alternative perspectives. This prematurely limit spectrum available policy options. Here we show how inclusion neglected currents thought such as non-Ricardian economics, bioeconomics set qualitative-quantitative methods post-normal science leads to richer perspectives more inclusive uses quantitative evidence, opens analysis possible futures. We also present some case studies in energy, water, climate domains highlight point practical context policy-oriented audience. situate our recent calls EU social sciences humanities assessment works.

Язык: Английский

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The multi-dimensionality of value landscapes

Futures, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 158, С. 103345 - 103345

Опубликована: Фев. 22, 2024

Post-normal science (PNS) is arguably an extension of the framing knowledge production and use which includes close linkage facts values. The paper argues that PNS fundamentally ethical perspective on scientific knowledge, not only highlights uncertainties, but also value dimensions targeting inherently complex world ours. Analytically notion (social, personal or other) values contentious in various disciplines. empirical study notoriously elusive. This advances multi-dimensional concept valuelandscapes, studying within this framework fits well a approach.

Язык: Английский

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