Scenario design for infectious disease projections: Integrating concepts from decision analysis and experimental design

Epidemics, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 47, С. 100775 - 100775

Опубликована: Май 24, 2024

Across many fields, scenario modeling has become an important tool for exploring long-term projections and how they might depend on potential interventions critical uncertainties, with relevance to both decision makers scientists. In the past decade, especially during COVID-19 pandemic, field of epidemiology seen substantial growth in use projections. Multiple scenarios are often projected at same time, allowing comparisons that can guide choice intervention, prioritization research topics, or public communication. The design is central their ability inform questions. this paper, we draw fields analysis statistical experiments propose a framework epidemiology, also other fields. We identify six different fundamental purposes designs (decision making, sensitivity analysis, situational awareness, horizon scanning, forecasting, value information) discuss those structure scenarios. aspects content process design, broadly all settings specifically multi-model ensemble As illustrative case study, examine first 17 rounds from U.S. Scenario Modeling Hub, then reflect future advancements could improve epidemiological settings.

Язык: Английский

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A multiscale modeling framework for Scenario Modeling: Characterizing the heterogeneity of the COVID-19 epidemic in the US

Epidemics, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 47, С. 100757 - 100757

Опубликована: Март 5, 2024

The Scenario Modeling Hub (SMH) initiative provides projections of potential epidemic scenarios in the United States (US) by using a multi-model approach. Our contribution to SMH is generated multiscale model that combines global metapopulation modeling approach (GLEAM) with local and mobility US (LEAM-US), first introduced here. LEAM-US consists 3142 subpopulations each representing single county across 50 states District Columbia, enabling us project state national trajectories COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, deaths under different scenarios. age-structured, multi-strain. It integrates data on vaccine administration, human mobility, non-pharmaceutical interventions. contributed all 17 rounds SMH, allows for mechanistic characterization spatio-temporal heterogeneities observed during pandemic. Here we describe mathematical computational structure underpinning our model, present as case study results concerning emergence SARS-CoV-2 Alpha variant (lineage designation B.1.1.7). findings reveal considerable spatial temporal heterogeneity introduction diffusion variant, both at level individual combined statistical areas, it competes against ancestral lineage. We discuss key factors driving time required rise dominance within population, quantify significant impact had effective reproduction number level. Overall, show able capture complexity pandemic response US.

Язык: Английский

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Scenario Design for Infectious Disease Projections: Integrating Concepts from Decision Analysis and Experimental Design

medRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory), Год журнала: 2023, Номер unknown

Опубликована: Окт. 12, 2023

Across many fields, scenario modeling has become an important tool for exploring long-term projections and how they might depend on potential interventions critical uncertainties, with relevance to both decision makers scientists. In the past decade, especially during COVID-19 pandemic, field of epidemiology seen substantial growth in use projections. Multiple scenarios are often projected at same time, allowing comparisons that can guide choice intervention, prioritization research topics, or public communication. The design is central their ability inform questions. this paper, we draw fields analysis statistical experiments propose a framework epidemiology, also other fields. We identify six different fundamental purposes designs (decision making, sensitivity analysis, value information, situational awareness, horizon scanning, forecasting) discuss those structure scenarios. aspects content process design, broadly all settings specifically multi-model ensemble As illustrative case study, examine first 17 rounds from U.S. Scenario Modeling Hub, then reflect future advancements could improve epidemiological settings.

Язык: Английский

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Preface: COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hubs

Epidemics, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 48, С. 100788 - 100788

Опубликована: Авг. 24, 2024

Язык: Английский

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