A whale optimization algorithm-based multivariate exponential smoothing grey-holt model for electricity price forecasting
Expert Systems with Applications,
Год журнала:
2024,
Номер
255, С. 124663 - 124663
Опубликована: Июль 3, 2024
Язык: Английский
Improving electricity demand forecasting accuracy: a novel grey-genetic programming approach using GMC(1,N) and residual sign estimation
Grey Systems Theory and Application,
Год журнала:
2024,
Номер
14(4), С. 708 - 732
Опубликована: Май 29, 2024
Purpose
This
paper
addresses
the
challenges
associated
with
forecasting
electricity
consumption
using
limited
data
without
making
prior
assumptions
on
normality.
The
study
aims
to
enhance
predictive
performance
of
grey
models
by
proposing
a
novel
multivariate
convolution
model
incorporating
residual
modification
and
genetic
programming
sign
estimation.
Design/methodology/approach
research
begins
constructing
demonstrates
utilization
prediction
accuracy
exploiting
signs
forecast
residuals.
Various
statistical
criteria
are
employed
assess
proposed
model.
validation
process
involves
applying
real
datasets
spanning
from
2001
2019
for
annual
in
Cameroon.
Findings
hybrid
outperforms
both
non-grey
consumption.
model's
is
evaluated
MAE,
MSD,
RMSE,
R
2
,
yielding
values
0.014,
101.01,
10.05,
99%
respectively.
Results
cases
real-world
scenarios
demonstrate
feasibility
effectiveness
combination
offers
significant
improvement
over
competing
models.
Notably,
dynamic
adaptability
enhances
mimicking
expert
systems'
knowledge
decision-making,
allowing
identification
subtle
changes
demand
patterns.
Originality/value
introduces
that
incorporates
application
leveraging
residuals
represents
unique
approach.
showcases
superiority
existing
models,
emphasizing
its
expert-like
ability
learn
refine
rules
dynamically.
potential
extension
other
fields
also
highlighted,
indicating
versatility
applicability
beyond
Язык: Английский
A Nonlinear Multivariate Grey Bernoulli Model for Predicting Innovation Performance in High-Tech Industries
Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation,
Год журнала:
2025,
Номер
unknown, С. 108636 - 108636
Опубликована: Янв. 1, 2025
Язык: Английский
A novel time-lag discrete grey Euler model and its application in renewable energy generation prediction
Renewable Energy,
Год журнала:
2025,
Номер
unknown, С. 122785 - 122785
Опубликована: Фев. 1, 2025
Язык: Английский
AEPSO: An adaptive learning particle swarm optimization for solving the hyperparameters of dynamic periodic regulation grey model
Expert Systems with Applications,
Год журнала:
2025,
Номер
unknown, С. 127578 - 127578
Опубликована: Апрель 1, 2025
Язык: Английский
Damping accumulative NDAGM(1,N, α) power model and its applications
Grey Systems Theory and Application,
Год журнала:
2024,
Номер
14(4), С. 621 - 640
Опубликована: Май 8, 2024
Purpose
In
this
essay,
a
new
NDAGM(1,N,α)
power
model
is
recommended
to
resolve
the
hassle
of
distinction
between
old
and
information,
complicated
nonlinear
traits
sequences
in
real
behavior
systems.
Design/methodology/approach
Firstly,
correlation
aspect
sequence
screened
via
grey
integrated
degree,
damped
cumulative
generating
operator
index
are
introduced
define
model.
Then
non-structural
parameters
optimized
through
genetic
algorithm.
Finally,
pattern
utilized
for
prediction
China’s
natural
gas
consumption,
contrast
with
other
models.
Findings
By
altering
unknown
model,
theoretical
deduction
has
been
carried
out
on
newly
constructed
It
discovered
that
can
be
interchanged
traditional
indicating
proposed
article
possesses
strong
compatibility.
case
study,
demonstrates
superior
performance
compared
benchmark
models,
which
indirectly
reflects
model’s
heightened
sensitivity
disparities
as
well
its
ability
handle
complex
linear
issues.
Practical
implications
This
paper
provides
scientifically
valid
forecast
predicting
consumption.
The
results
offer
foundation
formulation
national
strategies
related
policies
regarding
import
export.
Originality/value
primary
contribution
proposition
multivariate
accommodates
both
historical
information
applicable
scenarios.
addition,
predictive
enhanced
by
employing
algorithm
search
optimal
exponent.
Язык: Английский
Neural Multivariate Grey Model and Its Applications
Applied Sciences,
Год журнала:
2024,
Номер
14(3), С. 1219 - 1219
Опубликована: Янв. 31, 2024
For
time
series
forecasting,
multivariate
grey
models
are
excellent
at
handling
incomplete
or
vague
information.
The
GM(1,
N)
model
represents
this
group
of
and
has
been
widely
used
in
various
fields.
However,
constructing
a
meaningful
is
challenging
due
to
its
more
complex
structure
compared
the
construction
univariate
1).
Typically,
fitting
prediction
errors
not
ideal
practical
applications,
which
limits
application
model.
This
study
presents
neural
ordinary
differential
equation
(NMGM),
new
that
aims
enhance
precision
models.
NMGM
employs
novel
whitening
with
equations,
showcasing
higher
predictive
accuracy
broader
applicability
than
previous
It
can
effectively
learn
features
from
data
samples.
In
experimental
validation,
our
first
predict
China’s
per
capita
energy
consumption,
it
performed
best
both
test
validation
sets,
mean
absolute
percentage
(MAPEs)
0.2537%
0.7381%,
respectively.
optimal
results
for
0.5298%
1.106%.
Then,
predicts
total
renewable
lower
0.9566%
0.7896%
leading
outcomes
competing
1.0188%
1.1493%.
demonstrate
exhibits
performance
other
Язык: Английский