Earth system science data,
Год журнала:
2024,
Номер
16(3), С. 1395 - 1424
Опубликована: Март 15, 2024
Abstract.
In
the
western
United
States,
prolonged
drought,
a
warming
climate,
and
historical
fuel
buildup
have
contributed
to
larger
more
intense
wildfires
as
well
longer
fire
seasons.
As
these
costly
become
common,
new
tools
methods
are
essential
for
improving
our
understanding
of
evolution
fires
how
extreme
weather
conditions,
including
heat
waves,
windstorms,
droughts,
varying
levels
active-fire
suppression,
influence
spread.
Here,
we
develop
Geostationary
Operational
Environmental
Satellites
(GOES)-Observed
Fire
Event
Representation
(GOFER)
algorithm
derive
hourly
progression
large
create
product
perimeters,
lines,
spread
rates.
Using
GOES-East
GOES-West
geostationary
satellite
detections
active
fires,
test
GOFER
on
28
in
California
from
2019
2021.
The
includes
parameter
optimizations
defining
burned-to-unburned
boundary
correcting
parallax
effect
elevated
terrain.
We
evaluate
perimeters
using
12
h
data
Visible
Infrared
Imaging
Radiometer
Suite
(VIIRS)-derived
Data
(FEDS)
final
California's
Resource
Assessment
Program
(FRAP).
Although
GOES
imagery
used
has
coarser
resolution
(2
km
at
Equator),
correspond
reasonably
those
obtained
FRAP,
with
mean
Intersection-over-Union
(IoU)
0.77,
comparison
0.83
between
FEDS
FRAP;
IoU
indicates
area
overlap
over
union
relative
reference
which
0
is
no
agreement
1
perfect
agreement.
fills
key
temporal
gap
present
other
tracking
products
that
rely
low-Earth-orbit
imagery,
where
available
intervals
or
ad
hoc
aircraft
overflights.
This
particularly
relevant
when
spreads
rapidly,
such
maximum
rates
5
h−1.
Our
deriving
can
be
applied
across
North
South
America
reveals
considerable
variability
diurnal
timescales.
resulting
broad
set
potential
applications,
development
predictive
models
improvement
atmospheric
transport
surface
smoke
estimates.
estimates
(https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8327264,
Liu
et
al.,
2023).
Ecological Applications,
Год журнала:
2022,
Номер
33(2)
Опубликована: Окт. 20, 2022
Abstract
Mature
forests
provide
important
wildlife
habitat
and
support
critical
ecosystem
functions
globally.
Within
the
dry
conifer
of
western
United
States,
past
management
fire
exclusion
have
contributed
to
forest
conditions
that
are
susceptible
increasingly
severe
wildfire
drought.
We
evaluated
declines
in
cover
southern
Sierra
Nevada
California
during
a
decade
record
disturbance
by
using
spatially
comprehensive
structure
estimates,
perimeter
data,
eDaRT
tracking
algorithm.
Primarily
due
combination
wildfires,
drought,
drought‐associated
beetle
epidemics,
30%
region's
extent
transitioned
nonforest
vegetation
2011–2020.
In
total,
50%
mature
85%
high
density
either
lower
or
types.
spotted
owl
protected
activity
centers
(PAC)
experienced
greater
canopy
decline
(49%
2011
cover)
than
non‐PAC
areas
(42%
decline).
Areas
with
initial
without
tall
trees
were
most
vulnerable
declines,
likely
explaining
disproportionate
within
PACs.
Drought
attack
caused
cumulative
where
drought
mortality
overlapped,
both
types
natural
far
outpaced
attributable
mechanical
activities.
disproportionately
affects
large
conifers
is
particularly
problematic
specialist
species
reliant
on
trees.
However,
patches
degraded
perimeters
larger
core
area
those
outside
burned
areas,
remnant
habitats
more
fragmented
affected
alone.
The
percentage
survived
potentially
benefited
from
severity
increased
over
time
as
total
declined.
These
some
opportunity
for
improved
resilience
future
disturbances,
but
strategic
interventions
also
necessary
mitigate
worsening
mega‐disturbances.
Remaining
may
be
complete
loss
coming
decades
rapid
transition
conservation
paradigm
attempts
maintain
static
one
manages
sustainable
dynamics.
Earth system science data,
Год журнала:
2024,
Номер
16(8), С. 3601 - 3685
Опубликована: Авг. 13, 2024
Abstract.
Climate
change
contributes
to
the
increased
frequency
and
intensity
of
wildfires
globally,
with
significant
impacts
on
society
environment.
However,
our
understanding
global
distribution
extreme
fires
remains
skewed,
primarily
influenced
by
media
coverage
regionalised
research
efforts.
This
inaugural
State
Wildfires
report
systematically
analyses
fire
activity
worldwide,
identifying
events
from
March
2023–February
2024
season.
We
assess
causes,
predictability,
attribution
these
climate
land
use
forecast
future
risks
under
different
scenarios.
During
2023–2024
season,
3.9×106
km2
burned
slightly
below
average
previous
seasons,
but
carbon
(C)
emissions
were
16
%
above
average,
totalling
2.4
Pg
C.
Global
C
record
in
Canadian
boreal
forests
(over
9
times
average)
reduced
low
African
savannahs.
Notable
included
record-breaking
extent
Canada,
largest
recorded
wildfire
European
Union
(Greece),
drought-driven
western
Amazonia
northern
parts
South
America,
deadly
Hawaii
(100
deaths)
Chile
(131
deaths).
Over
232
000
people
evacuated
Canada
alone,
highlighting
severity
human
impact.
Our
revealed
that
multiple
drivers
needed
cause
areas
activity.
In
Greece,
a
combination
high
weather
an
abundance
dry
fuels
probability
fires,
whereas
area
anomalies
weaker
regions
lower
fuel
loads
higher
direct
suppression,
particularly
Canada.
Fire
prediction
showed
mild
anomalous
signal
1
2
months
advance,
Greece
had
shorter
predictability
horizons.
Attribution
indicated
modelled
up
40
%,
18
50
due
during
respectively.
Meanwhile,
seasons
magnitudes
has
significantly
anthropogenic
change,
2.9–3.6-fold
increase
likelihood
20.0–28.5-fold
Amazonia.
By
end
century,
similar
magnitude
2023
are
projected
occur
6.3–10.8
more
frequently
medium–high
emission
scenario
(SSP370).
represents
first
annual
effort
catalogue
events,
explain
their
occurrence,
predict
risks.
consolidating
state-of-the-art
science
delivering
key
insights
relevant
policymakers,
disaster
management
services,
firefighting
agencies,
managers,
we
aim
enhance
society's
resilience
promote
advances
preparedness,
mitigation,
adaptation.
New
datasets
presented
this
work
available
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11400539
(Jones
et
al.,
2024)
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11420742
(Kelley
2024a).
Forest Ecology and Management,
Год журнала:
2022,
Номер
528, С. 120620 - 120620
Опубликована: Ноя. 14, 2022
Although
recent
large
wildfires
in
California
forests
are
well
publicized
media
and
scientific
literature,
their
cumulative
effects
on
forest
structure
implications
for
resilience
remain
poorly
understood.
In
this
study,
we
evaluated
spatial
patterns
of
burn
severity
18
exceptionally
fires
compared
impacts
to
the
hundreds
smaller
that
have
burned
across
decades.
We
used
a
atlas
over
1,800
predominantly
conifer
between
1985
2020
calculated
landscape
metrics
evaluate
spatiotemporal
unburned
refugia,
low-moderate-severity,
high-severity
post-fire
effects.
Total
annual
area
burned,
mean
fire
size,
total
core
at
high
all
significantly
increased
study
period.
Exceptionally
(i.e.,
top
1%
by
size)
were
responsible
58%
42%
low-moderate
severities,
respectively,
With
larger
patch
sizes,
our
results
suggest
coarsen
pattern
California’s
forests,
reducing
fine-scale
heterogeneity
which
supports
much
biodiversity
as
wildfire
climate
resilience.
Thus
far,
most
modern
management
has
focused
restoring
cover
minimizing
ecotype
conversion
large,
patches.
These
fires,
however,
also
provided
extensive
areas
burns
where
managers
could
leverage
wildfire’s
initial
“treatment”
with
follow-up
fuel
reduction
treatments
help
restore
finer-scale
Ecological Applications,
Год журнала:
2023,
Номер
34(2)
Опубликована: Ноя. 10, 2023
Abstract
Fire
suppression
and
past
selective
logging
of
large
trees
have
fundamentally
changed
frequent‐fire‐adapted
forests
in
California.
The
culmination
these
changes
produced
that
are
vulnerable
to
catastrophic
change
by
wildfire,
drought,
bark
beetles,
with
climate
exacerbating
this
vulnerability.
Management
options
available
address
problem
include
mechanical
treatments
(Mech),
prescribed
fire
(Fire),
or
combinations
(Mech
+
Fire).
We
quantify
forest
structure
composition,
fuel
accumulation,
modeled
behavior,
intertree
competition,
economics
from
a
20‐year
restoration
study
the
northern
Sierra
Nevada.
All
three
active
(Fire,
Mech,
Mech
Fire)
conditions
were
much
more
resistant
wildfire
than
untreated
control.
included
lowest
surface
duff
loads
hazards.
low
hazards
beginning
7
years
after
initial
treatment
had
lower
tree
growth
controls.
only
competition
somewhat
similar
historical
California
mixed‐conifer
was
Fire,
indicating
stands
under
would
likely
be
resilient
enhanced
stressors.
While
reduced
hazard
reintroduced
fundamental
ecosystem
process,
it
done
at
net
cost
landowner.
Using
mastication
thinning
resulted
positive
revenues
also
relatively
strong
as
an
investment
reducing
hazard.
represents
compromise
between
desire
sustain
financial
feasibility
reintroduce
fire.
One
key
component
long‐term
conservation
will
continued
maintain
improve
restoration.
Many
Indigenous
people
speak
“active
stewardship”
one
principles
land
management
aligns
well
need
for
increased
western
US
forests.
If
we
do
not
use
knowledge
20+
research
longer
tradition
cultural
practices
knowledge,
frequent‐fire
continue
degraded
lost.
Nature Communications,
Год журнала:
2024,
Номер
15(1)
Опубликована: Янв. 20, 2024
Abstract
In
recent
years,
large-scale
tree
mortality
events
linked
to
global
change
have
occurred
around
the
world.
Current
forest
monitoring
methods
are
crucial
for
identifying
hotspots,
but
systematic
assessments
of
isolated
or
scattered
dead
trees
over
large
areas
needed
reduce
uncertainty
on
actual
extent
mortality.
Here,
we
mapped
individual
in
California
using
sub-meter
resolution
aerial
photographs
from
2020
and
deep
learning-based
detection.
We
identified
91.4
million
27.8
hectares
vegetated
(16.7-24.7%
underestimation
bias
when
compared
field
data).
Among
these,
a
total
19.5
appeared
isolated,
60%
all
small
groups
(
≤
3
within
30
×
m
grid),
which
is
largely
undetected
by
other
state-level
methods.
The
widespread
impacts
carbon
budget
sequestration
capacity
forests
can
be
considered
threat
health
fuel
source
future
wildfires.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,
Год журнала:
2024,
Номер
121(32)
Опубликована: Июль 29, 2024
In
this
review
and
synthesis,
we
argue
that
California
is
an
important
test
case
for
the
nation
world
because
terrestrial
biodiversity
very
high,
present
anticipated
threats
to
from
climate
change
other
interacting
stressors
are
severe,
innovative
approaches
protecting
in
context
of
being
developed
tested.
We
first
salient
dimensions
California's
physical,
biological,
human
diversity.
Next,
examine
four
facets
threat
their
sustainability
these
posed
by
change:
direct
impacts,
illustrated
a
new
analysis
shifting
diversity
hotspots
plants;
interactive
effects
involving
invasive
species,
land-use
change,
stressors;
impacts
changing
fire
regimes;
land-based
renewable
energy
development.
recent
policy
responses
each
areas,
representing
attempts
better
protect
while
advancing
adaptation
mitigation.
conclude
ambitious
30
×
Initiative
its
efforts
harmonize
conservation
with
development
areas
progress.
Adapting
traditional
suppression-oriented
policies
reality
regimes
area
which
much
progress
remains
be
made.
Communications Earth & Environment,
Год журнала:
2023,
Номер
4(1)
Опубликована: Окт. 3, 2023
Abstract
Escalating
wildfire
activity
in
the
western
United
States
has
accelerated
adverse
societal
impacts.
Observed
increases
severity
and
impacts
to
communities
have
diverse
anthropogenic
causes—including
legacy
of
fire
suppression
policies,
increased
development
high-risk
zones,
aridification
by
a
warming
climate.
However,
intentional
use
as
vegetation
management
tool,
known
“prescribed
fire,”
can
reduce
risk
destructive
fires
restore
ecosystem
resilience.
Prescribed
implementation
is
subject
multiple
constraints,
including
number
days
characterized
weather
conditions
conducive
achieving
desired
outcomes.
Here,
we
quantify
observed
projected
trends
frequency
seasonality
prescribed
days.
We
find
that
while
~2
C
global
2060
will
such
overall
(−17%),
particularly
during
spring
(−25%)
summer
(−31%),
winter
(+4%)
may
increasingly
emerge
comparatively
favorable
window
for
especially
northern
states.
Abstract
Background
The
PODs
(potential
operational
delineations)
concept
is
an
adaptive
framework
for
cross-boundary
and
collaborative
land
fire
management
planning.
Use
of
increasingly
recognized
as
a
best
practice,
are
seeing
growing
interest
from
federal,
state,
local,
tribal,
non-governmental
organizations.
Early
evidence
suggests
provide
utility
planning,
communication,
coordination,
prioritization,
incident
response
strategy
development,
fuels
mitigation
forest
restoration.
Recent
legislative
action
codifies
the
importance
by
devoting
substantial
financial
resources
to
their
expansion.
intent
this
paper
explore
new
horizons
that
would
help
organizations
better
address
risks
capitalize
on
opportunities.
Specifically,
we
focus
how
natural
platform
improvement
related
two
core
elements
risk
management:
leverage
preparation
foresight
prepare
future;
learn
past
understand
improve
performance
its
alignment
with
strategy.
Results
We
organize
our
exploration
around
three
key
areas,
suggesting
can
enable
climate-smart
inform
more
agile
allocation
suppression
resources,
risk-informed
measurement.
These
efforts
be
synergistic
self-reinforcing,
argue
expanded
application
at
local
levels
could
enhance
broader
wildland
system.
rationales
each
problem
area
offer
growth
opportunities
attendant
explanations
illustrations.
Conclusions
With
commitment
careful
effort,
rich
innovation
in
both
backward-looking
evaluative
forward-looking
anticipatory
frameworks.
In
addition
continued
elements,
attention
must
paid
being
inclusive
participatory
building
sufficient
capacity
expand
applications
meaningful
boundary
spanning
ways,
ensure
continuity
relevance
over
time
through
maintenance
updating,
deliver
necessary
information
responders
effective
wildfires.
Lastly,
ongoing
monitoring
evaluation
initiatives
essential
support
organizational
learning
continual
improvement.
Fire-adapted
forests
in
western
North
America
are
experiencing
rapid
changes
to
fire
regimes
that
outside
the
range
of
historic
norms.
Some
habitat-specialist
species
have
been
negatively
impacted
by
increases
large,
high-severity
fire,
yet,
responses
many
especially
at
longer
time
scales,
remain
ambiguous.
We
studied
response
a
widely
distributed
species,
mountain
quail
(Oreortyx
pictus),
wildfire
across
Sierra
Nevada
California,
because
its
habitat
selection
patterns
provided
an
opportunity
evaluate
potentially
contrasting
among
specialists.
used
passive
acoustic
monitoring
>
22,000
km2
and
Bayesian
hierarchical
occupancy
modeling
conduct
first
study
effects
habitat,
severity,
since
(1–35
years)
on
little-understood
management
indicator
quail.
Mountain
responded
positively
neutrally
low-moderate-severity
fire.
Occupancy
peaked
6–10
years
after
remained
high
even
11–35
area
burned
severity.
Our
work
demonstrates
is
strongly
related
occupancy,
which
markedly
different
than
previously
also
concern
Nevada.
Taken
together,
our
results
suggest
may
actually
be
"winners"
face
altered
Given
forecasted
intensification
severe
wildfires
fire-adapted
forests,
understanding
ecology
nuanced
beyond
those
historically
considered
important
time-sensitive
effort.
The
relationship
between
reminder
there
will
both
winners
losers
as
dynamics
change
era
climate
change.