Vaccine, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 41(18), С. 2947 - 2955
Опубликована: Апрель 3, 2023
Язык: Английский
Nature Communications, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 13(1)
Опубликована: Июнь 3, 2022
Abstract Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and vaccination are two fundamental approaches for mitigating the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. However, real-world impact of NPIs versus vaccination, or a combination both, on COVID-19 remains uncertain. To address this, we built Bayesian inference model to assess changing effect reducing transmission, based large-scale dataset including epidemiological parameters, virus variants, vaccines, climate factors in Europe from August 2020 October 2021. We found that (1) combined resulted 53% (95% confidence interval: 42–62%) reduction reproduction number by 2021, whereas reduced transmission 35% 38%, respectively; (2) compared with change NPI was less sensitive emerging variants; (3) relative declined 12% May 2021 due lower stringency introduction strategies. Our results demonstrate were complementary an effort reduce relaxation might depend rates, control targets, vaccine effectiveness concerning extant variants.
Язык: Английский
Процитировано
96
Nature Cardiovascular Research, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 2(3), С. 322 - 333
Опубликована: Фев. 27, 2023
Язык: Английский
Процитировано
52
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 381(2257)
Опубликована: Авг. 23, 2023
Social distancing measures (SDMs) are community-level interventions that aim to reduce person-to-person contacts in the community. SDMs were a major part of responses first contain, then mitigate, spread SARS-CoV-2 Common included limiting size gatherings, closing schools and/or workplaces, implementing work-from-home arrangements, or more stringent restrictions such as lockdowns. This systematic review summarized evidence for effectiveness nine SDMs. Almost all studies observational nature, which meant there intrinsic risks bias could have been avoided conditions randomly assigned study participants. There no instances where only one form SDM had place particular setting during period, making it challenging estimate separate effect each intervention. The stay-at-home orders, on mass gatherings and closures estimated be most effective at reducing transmission. Most this suggested combinations successfully slowed even stopped transmission However, individual effects optimal interventions, well timing measures, require further investigation. article is theme issue 'The non-pharmaceutical COVID-19 pandemic: evidence'.
Язык: Английский
Процитировано
41
Heliyon, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 10(3), С. e25810 - e25810
Опубликована: Фев. 1, 2024
There is evidence in literature that the spread of COVID-19 can be influenced by various geographic factors, including territorial features, climate, population density, socioeconomic conditions, and mobility. The objective paper to provide an updated review on geographical studies analysing factors which spreading. This took into account not only aspects but also COVID-19-related outcomes (infections deaths) allowing discern potential influencing role per type outcome. A total 112 scientific articles were selected, reviewed categorized according subject area, aim, country/region study, considered variables, spatial temporal units analysis, methodologies, main findings. Our showed features may have played a determining uneven geography COVID-19; for instance, certain agreement was found regarding direct relationship between urbanization degree infections. For what concerns climatic temperature variable correlated best with Together socio-demographic ones extensively taken account. Most analysed agreed density human mobility had significant infections deaths. analysis different approaches used investigate spreading pandemic revealed significance/representativeness outputs scale due great variability aspects. In fact, more robust association conducted at subnational or local rather than country scale.
Язык: Английский
Процитировано
11
BMC Infectious Diseases, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 23(1)
Опубликована: Март 30, 2023
Multiple factors shape the temporal dynamics of COVID-19 pandemic. Quantifying their relative contributions is key to guide future control strategies. Our objective was disentangle individual effects non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), weather, vaccination, and variants concern (VOC) on local SARS-CoV-2 transmission.We developed a log-linear model for weekly reproduction number (R) hospital admissions in 92 French metropolitan departments. We leveraged (i) homogeneity data collection NPI definitions across departments, (ii) spatial heterogeneity timing NPIs, (iii) an extensive observation period (14 months) covering different weather conditions, VOC proportions, vaccine coverage levels.Three lockdowns reduced R by 72.7% (95% CI 71.3-74.1), 70.4% (69.2-71.6) 60.7% (56.4-64.5), respectively. Curfews implemented at 6/7 pm 8/9 34.3% (27.9-40.2) 18.9% (12.04-25.3), School closures only 4.9% (2.0-7.8). estimated that vaccination entire population would have 71.7% (56.4-81.6), whereas emergence (mainly Alpha during study period) increased transmission 44.6% (36.1-53.6) compared with historical variant. Winter conditions (lower temperature absolute humidity) 42.2% (37.3-47.3) summer conditions. Additionally, we explored counterfactual scenarios (absence or vaccination) assess impact admissions.Our demonstrates strong effectiveness NPIs quantifies role while adjusting other confounders. It highlights importance retrospective evaluation inform decision-making.
Язык: Английский
Процитировано
18
The Science of The Total Environment, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 826, С. 154182 - 154182
Опубликована: Фев. 26, 2022
Язык: Английский
Процитировано
26
The International Journal of Biostatistics, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 20(1), С. 13 - 41
Опубликована: Янв. 6, 2023
Abstract In response to the COVID-19 pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2, governments have adopted a wide range of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI). These include stringent measures such as strict lockdowns, closing schools, bars and restaurants, curfews, barrier gestures mask-wearing social distancing. Deciphering effectiveness each NPI is critical responding future waves outbreaks. To this end, we first develop dynamic model French epidemics over one-year period. We rely on global extended Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) mechanistic infection that includes transmission rate time. Multilevel data across regions are integrated using random effects parameters model, boosting statistical power multiplying observation series. estimate new population-based approach based Kalman filter, used for time in analysing real-world data. then fit estimated time-varying regression depends NPIs while accounting vaccination coverage, occurrence variants concern (VoC), seasonal weather conditions. show all considered an independent significant association with rates. addition, strong between conditions reduces summer, also increased transmissibility VoC.
Язык: Английский
Процитировано
15
Viruses, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 15(4), С. 888 - 888
Опубликована: Март 30, 2023
Brazil currently ranks second in absolute deaths by COVID-19, even though most of its population has completed the vaccination protocol. With introduction Omicron late 2021, number COVID-19 cases soared once again country. We investigated this work how lineages BA.1 and BA.2 entered spread country sequencing 2173 new SARS-CoV-2 genomes collected between October 2021 April 2022 analyzing them addition to more than 18,000 publicly available sequences with phylodynamic methods. registered that was present as early 16 November January already 99% samples. More importantly, we detected been mostly imported through state São Paulo, which turn dispersed other states regions Brazil. This knowledge can be used implement efficient non-pharmaceutical interventions against SARS-CoV variants focused on surveillance airports ground transportation.
Язык: Английский
Процитировано
13
Journal of Infection and Public Health, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 16(4), С. 483 - 489
Опубликована: Янв. 25, 2023
Although the COVID-19 pandemic has persisted for more than two years with evident excess mortality from diabetes, few studies have investigated its temporal patterns. This study aims to estimate deaths diabetes in United States (US) during and evaluate by spatiotemporal pattern, age groups, sex, race/ethnicity.Diabetes as one of multiple causes death or an underlying cause were both considered into analyses. The Poisson log-linear regression model was used weekly expected counts adjustments long-term trend seasonality. Excess measured difference between observed counts, including average deaths, rate, risk. We calculated estimates wave, US state, demographic characteristic.From March 2020 2022, that about 47.6 % 18.4 higher expected. had patterns large percentage increases 2020, June 2021 November 2021. regional heterogeneity racial/ethnic disparities also clearly observed.This highlighted increased risks mortality, heterogeneous patterns, associated pandemic. Practical actions are warranted monitor disease progression, lessen health patients
Язык: Английский
Процитировано
12
AJPM Focus, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 2(4), С. 100125 - 100125
Опубликована: Июнь 16, 2023
To assess the effects of various non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) on cases, hospitalizations, and mortality during first wave COVID-19 pandemic.To empirically investigate impacts different NPIs COVID-19-related health outcomes, a systematic literature review was conducted. We studied 10 across three periodic lags (2, 3, 4 weeks-or-more following implementation). Articles measuring impact were sourced from databases by May 10, 2022, risk bias assessed using Newcastle-Ottawa scale.Across 44 papers, we found that mask wearing corresponded to decreased per capita cases all (up -2.71 100,000). All except business bar/restaurant closures reduced case growth rates in two weeks implementation, while policy stringency travelling restrictions most effective after four. While did not find evidence deaths our estimates, stringency, masks, SIPOs, limited gatherings, school associated with rates. Moreover, hospitalizations (SIPOs wearing) showed negative estimates.When assessing NPIs, considering duration effectiveness implementation has paramount significance. some may reduce impact, others can disrupt mitigative progression containing virus. Policymakers should be aware both scale their when adopting these measures for future waves.
Язык: Английский
Процитировано
12