Global risk assessment of compound hot-dry events in the context of future climate change and socioeconomic factors

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 6(1)

Опубликована: Июнь 24, 2023

Abstract Compound hot-dry events have the potential to cause significant damages and propel socioeconomic systems towards tipping points by overwhelming ability of natural human cope with combined stressors. As climate change continues alter hazard patterns, impacts these will be further compounded changes in exposure vulnerability. However, future risk role components remain poorly understood. Using a multimodel ensemble, we find that end 21st century, an additional 0.7–1.7 billion people globally exposed amplified compound events, depending on scenarios. Additionally, cropland is projected increase 2–5.7 million km². Our findings also suggest countries weak governance experience twice larger than those good governance. This underscores importance effective mitigating managing escalating risks events.

Язык: Английский

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Research progresses and prospects of multi-sphere compound extremes from the Earth System perspective

Science China Earth Sciences, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 67(2), С. 343 - 374

Опубликована: Янв. 4, 2024

Язык: Английский

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Groundwater Depletion. Are Environmentally Friendly Energy Recharge Dams a Solution?

Water, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 16(11), С. 1541 - 1541

Опубликована: Май 27, 2024

Groundwater is a primary source of drinking water; however, groundwater depletion constitutes common phenomenon worldwide. The present research aims to quantify in three aquifers Greece, including the porous Eastern Thermaikos Gulf, Mouriki, and Marathonas basin. hypothesis reverse by adopting an environmentally acceptable methodology. core suggested methodology was simulation using MODFLOW-NWT application managed aquifer recharge (MAR) water from small dams after generation hydropower. Surface run-off values were obtained ArcSWAT simulation. predicted future climatic data Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), considering Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 climate model REMO2009. flow simulations 2010 2020 determined existing status aquifers. extended year 2030 forecast regime. In all sites, occurred 2020, while will be exacerbated 2030, as depicted GIS maps. During zones 11%, 28%, 23% basin, respectively. increase 50%, 42%, 44% 2040 applying MAR with well additional dams. contributed reversal depletion, significant amount hydropower generated. Until 2040, reduce 0.5%, 9%, 12% Apart over-pumping, factors such long periods drought have depletion. transformation mini-scale facilities combined benefit clean energy production, save CO2 emissions, lead economically feasible strategy against

Язык: Английский

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Spatial propagation of different drought types and their concurrent societal risks: A complex networks-based analysis

Journal of Hydrology, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 636, С. 131247 - 131247

Опубликована: Апрель 28, 2024

Язык: Английский

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Projected changes in compound hot-dry events depend on the dry indicator considered

Communications Earth & Environment, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 5(1)

Опубликована: Апрель 24, 2024

Abstract The intensification of compound hot-dry events due to climate change is a pressing concern, underscoring the need for precise analysis. However, impact different dry indicators on projections these has not been quantitatively evaluated, nor its importance compared with other sources uncertainty. Here we examine sensitivity projected changes in indicators. We use data from 22 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models characterize global conditions based precipitation, runoff, soil moisture, and multivariate index combining variables through trivariate copulas. Our findings reveal large differences likelihood across While model uncertainty remains primary source event projections, associated also substantial, surpassing scenario specific regions.

Язык: Английский

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Increased frequency and severity of global compound dry and heat wave events in a daily scale

Journal of Hydrology, Год журнала: 2025, Номер unknown, С. 132857 - 132857

Опубликована: Фев. 1, 2025

Язык: Английский

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The 2022-like compound dry and hot extreme in the Northern Hemisphere: Extremeness, attribution, and projection

Atmospheric Research, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 295, С. 107009 - 107009

Опубликована: Сен. 6, 2023

Язык: Английский

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Drought risk assessment on arid region under different socioeconomic scenarios: A case of Loess Plateau, China

Ecological Indicators, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 167, С. 112728 - 112728

Опубликована: Окт. 1, 2024

Язык: Английский

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Rising Threats of Compound Droughts and Heatwaves in MENA: Implications for Population and Agriculture under Paris Agreement Scenarios

Earth Systems and Environment, Год журнала: 2025, Номер unknown

Опубликована: Янв. 28, 2025

Язык: Английский

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Forecasting compound drought-heatwaves using Burg entropy spectral analysis with multi-frequency resolutions

Journal of Hydrology, Год журнала: 2025, Номер unknown, С. 133166 - 133166

Опубликована: Март 1, 2025

Язык: Английский

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