A spatiotemporally resolved infection risk model for airborne transmission of COVID-19 variants in indoor spaces

The Science of The Total Environment, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 812, С. 152592 - 152592

Опубликована: Дек. 23, 2021

Язык: Английский

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Influence of waning immunity on vaccination decision-making: A multi-strain epidemic model with an evolutionary approach analyzing cost and efficacy

Infectious Disease Modelling, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 9(3), С. 657 - 672

Опубликована: Март 24, 2024

In this research, we introduce a comprehensive epidemiological model that accounts for multiple strains of an infectious disease and two distinct vaccination options. Vaccination stands out as the most effective means to prevent manage diseases. However, when there are various vaccines available, each with its costs effectiveness, decision-making process individuals becomes paramount. Furthermore, factor waning immunity following also plays significant role in influencing these choices. To understand how make decisions context immunity, employ behavioral model, allowing be coupled dynamics process. Individuals base their choice on factors such total number infected cost-effectiveness vaccine. Our findings indicate increases, people tend prioritize higher greater efficacy. Moreover, more contagious present, equilibrium vaccine adoption is reached rapidly. Finally, delve into social dilemma inherent our by quantifying efficiency deficit (SED) under parameter combinations.

Язык: Английский

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Occupations and their impact on the spreading of COVID-19 in urban communities

Scientific Reports, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 12(1)

Опубликована: Авг. 18, 2022

Abstract The current pandemic has disproportionally affected the workforce. To improve our understanding of role that occupations play in transmission COVID-19, we analyse real-world network data were collected Bucharest between August 1st and October 31st 2020. record sex, age, occupation 6895 patients 13,272 people they have interacted with, thus providing a social from an urban setting through which COVID-19 spread. Quite remarkably, find medical no significant effect on spread virus. Instead, common chains to start with infected individuals who hold jobs private sector are connected non-active alters, such as spouses, siblings, or elderly relatives. We use relational hyperevent models assess most likely homophily effects community transmission. detect respect age anti-homophily sex employability. note that, although additional would be welcomed perform more in-depth analyses, findings may help public authorities better target under-performing vaccination campaigns.

Язык: Английский

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Evolutionary Optimization of COVID-19 Vaccine Distribution With Evolutionary Demands

IEEE Transactions on Evolutionary Computation, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 27(1), С. 141 - 154

Опубликована: Апрель 1, 2022

Vaccination uptake has become the key factor that will determine our success in containing coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19) pandemic. Efficient distribution of vaccines to inoculation spots is crucial curtailing spread novel COVID-19 Normally, a big city, huge number need be transported from central depot(s) through set satellites widely scattered by special-purpose vehicles every day. Such large two-echelon vehicle routing problem computationally difficult. Moreover, demands for evolve with epidemic over time, and actual are hard early exactly, which not only increases difficulty but also prolongs time. Based on practical experience vaccine China, we present hybrid machine learning evolutionary computation method, first uses fuzzy deep model forecast each next day, such can predistribute forecasted advance; after obtaining demands, it an algorithm (EA) route distribute satellites/depots The EA saves historical instances their high-quality solutions knowledge base, so as capture inherent relationship between evolving inputs solutions; when solving new instance utilizes perform well similar improve initial solution quality and, hence, accelerate convergence. Computational results real-world demonstrate proposed method produce significantly shorter time compared state-of-the-arts contribute accelerating achievement herd immunity.

Язык: Английский

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Epidemic Spreading in Metapopulation Networks Coupled With Awareness Propagation

IEEE Transactions on Cybernetics, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 53(12), С. 7686 - 7698

Опубликована: Сен. 2, 2022

Understanding the feedback loop that links spatiotemporal spread of infectious diseases and human behavior is an open problem. To study this problem, we develop a multiplex framework couples epidemic spreading across subpopulations in metapopulation network (i.e., physical layer) with awareness about communication virtual layer). We explicitly interactions between mobility patterns propagation among individuals. analyze coupled dynamics using microscopic Markov chains (MMCs) equations validate theoretical results via Monte Carlo (MC) simulations. find awareness, reducing becomes more effective mitigating large-scale epidemic. also investigate influence varying topological features layers correlation connectivity local population size per subpopulation. Overall proposed modeling findings contribute to growing literature investigating interplay epidemics behavior.

Язык: Английский

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Evaluation of the United States COVID-19 vaccine allocation strategy

PLoS ONE, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 16(11), С. e0259700 - e0259700

Опубликована: Ноя. 17, 2021

Background Anticipating an initial shortage of vaccines for COVID-19, the Centers Disease Control (CDC) in United States developed priority vaccine allocations specific demographic groups population. This study evaluates performance CDC allocation strategy with respect to multiple potentially competing vaccination goals (minimizing mortality, cases, infections, and years life lost (YLL)), under same framework as allocation: four population demographics stratified by age, comorbidities, occupation living condition (congested or non-congested). Methods findings We a compartmental disease model that incorporates key elements current pandemic including age-varying susceptibility infection, clinical fraction, active case-count dependent social distancing level, time-varying infectivity (accounting emergence more infectious virus strains). The is compared all other possibly optimal stagger roll-out up phases (17.5 million strategies). performed well but never optimally. Under model, deviated from small amounts, 0.19% deaths, 4.0% 4.07% 0.97% higher YLL, than respective strategies. decision not prioritize individuals age 16 was optimal, prioritization health-care workers essential over non-essential workers. Finally, comorbidities improved outcomes allocation. Conclusion approach can be used inform design future strategies States, adapted use countries seeking optimize effectiveness their

Язык: Английский

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Modeling the Impact of Vaccination on COVID-19 and Its Delta and Omicron Variants

Viruses, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 14(7), С. 1482 - 1482

Опубликована: Июль 6, 2022

Vaccination is an important means to fight against the spread of SARS-CoV-2 virus and its variants. In this work, we propose a general susceptible-vaccinated-exposed-infected-hospitalized-removed (SVEIHR) model derive basic effective reproduction numbers. We set Hong Kong as example calculate conditions herd immunity for multiple vaccines disease The shows how number confirmed COVID-19 cases in during second third waves pandemic would have been reduced if vaccination were available then. then investigate relationships between various parameters cumulative hospitalized ancestral, Delta, Omicron strains. Numerical results demonstrate that static threshold corresponds one percent population requiring hospitalization or isolation at some point time. also when rate high, initial proportion vaccinated individuals can be lowered while still maintaining same hospitalized/isolated individuals.

Язык: Английский

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Protection Degree and Migration in the Stochastic SIRS Model: A Queueing System Perspective

IEEE Transactions on Circuits and Systems I Regular Papers, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 69(2), С. 771 - 783

Опубликована: Окт. 20, 2021

With the prevalence of COVID-19, modeling epidemic propagation and its analyses have played a significant role in controlling epidemics. However, individual behaviors, particular self-protection migration, which strong influence on propagation, were always neglected previous studies. In this paper, we mainly propose two models from population perspectives. first model, introduce protection degree that effectively suppresses level as stochastic variable to SIRS model. alternative an open Markov queueing network is constructed investigate number each state, present evolving via migration people. Besides, methods are applied analyze both models. various simulations, infected probability, individuals state limited distribution demonstrated.

Язык: Английский

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An Enhanced SEIR Model for Prediction of COVID-19 with Vaccination Effect

Life, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 12(5), С. 647 - 647

Опубликована: Апрель 27, 2022

Currently, the spread of COVID-19 is running at a constant pace. The current situation not so alarming, but every pandemic has history three waves. Two waves have been seen, and now expecting third wave. Compartmental models are one methods that predict severity pandemic. An enhanced SEIR model expected to new cases COVID-19. proposed an additional compartment vaccination. This SEIRV predicts when population vaccinated. simulated with conditions. first condition social distancing incorporated, while second included. combined result shows epidemic growth rate about 0.06 per day, number infected people doubles 10.7 days. Still, imparting distancing, obtained value R

Язык: Английский

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Dynamics of respiratory infectious diseases under rapid urbanization and COVID-19 pandemic in the subcenter of Beijing during 2014–2022

Heliyon, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 10(9), С. e29987 - e29987

Опубликована: Апрель 20, 2024

ObjectiveThe study analyzed the impact of urbanization on epidemiological characteristics respiratory infectious disease in Tongzhou District, Beijing during 2014−2022 to provide reference for prevention and control priorities diseases innovative process China.MethodsThe incidence data notifiable (NRIDs) were summarized. The trend rate was by Joinpoint regression model, entropy method performed construct comprehensive index (CIU) generalized linear model used analyze influence CIU diseases.ResultsTotally 72616 NRIDs cases reported District 2014−2022, higher 2017-2019 (153/100 000) than 2014-2016 (930/100 2020-2022 (371/100 000), respectively (both P<0.001). constantly increased with slight fluctuation 2016 2018, respectively. showed an increase along 2014−2019 (r=0.95, P=0.004), while rate's tendency interrupted COVID-19 2020 decrease 2021 rebounded 2022. For patients aged <15 years, revealed a very sharp rise at period without pandemic compared that under pre-urbanization (RR=7.93, 95% CI 7.63−8.24), dropped off similar level as when spread.ConclusionsUrbanization may but constrained COVID-19. Certain measures should be taken prevent effects process, such good natural environment less population density, ecological air quality, promoted hand hygiene, mask wearing, keeping interpersonal distance, vaccination, media publicity NRIDs' control.

Язык: Английский

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