Regional Environmental Change,
Год журнала:
2022,
Номер
22(4)
Опубликована: Окт. 21, 2022
Abstract
Climate
change
is
an
important
driver
of
the
spread
apiary
pests
and
honeybee
predators.
These
impact
on
one
economically
most
pollinators
thus
pose
serious
threats
to
functioning
both
natural
ecosystems
crops.
We
investigated
predicted
climate
in
periods
2040–2060
2060–2080
potential
distribution
European
beewolf
Philanthus
triangulum
,
a
specialized
predator.
modelled
its
using
MaxEnt
method
based
contemporary
occurrence
data
bioclimatic
variables.
Our
model
had
overall
good
performance
(AUC
=
0.864)
threshold
probability,
assessed
as
point
with
highest
sum
sensitivity
specificity,
was
at
0.533.
Annual
temperature
range
(69.5%),
mean
warmest
quarter
(12.4%),
precipitation
(7.9%)
were
principal
variables
significantly
affecting
beewolf.
shifts
within
two
scenarios
(optimistic
RPC4.5
pessimistic
RCP8.5)
three
Global
Circulation
Models
(HadGEM2-ES,
IPSL-CM5A-LR,
MPI-SM-LR).
Both
optimistic
showed
that
will
increase
availability
niches.
Losses
niches
only
affect
small
areas
southern
Europe.
Most
anticipated
changes
for
period
already
have
occurred
2040–2060.
The
expansion
suggests
abundance
this
species
should
be
monitored.
International Journal of Environmental Research,
Год журнала:
2023,
Номер
17(3)
Опубликована: Июнь 1, 2023
Abstract
Africa
is
the
second
largest
continent
after
Asia,
having
a
larger
than
30
million
km
2
area.
Doubtlessly,
one
of
biggest
ecological
and
societal
problems
twenty-first
century
climate
change.
Since
early
1970s,
it
has
been
clear
that
already
experiencing
effects
change,
given
rise
to
wide
range
new
unusual
phenomena,
such
as
rising
temperatures,
poor
agricultural
output,
extreme
different
weather
scenarios,
spread
disease,
among
other
things.
Therefore,
current
review
aims
at
screening
impact
change
on
sector,
human
health
food
security
in
compared
continents,
evaluating
projections
future
highlighting
role
African
leaders
mitigating
adapting
these
effects.
Artificial
intelligence,
remote
sensing,
high-tech
algorithms
were
applied
analyze
Historical
data
downloaded
near
real-time
from
January
2009
present
FAO
Water
Productivity
Open-access
portal
WaPOR
Terra
Climate
datasets
Earth
Engine
platform.
Assessment
process
was
performed
using
Google
Engine,
whereas
WorldClim
2.1.
We
used
2021–2040
timelines
two
scenarios:
SSP245
SSP585.
For
SSP
timeline,
we
four
versions,
based
global
circulation
models
(GCMs):
IPSL-CM6A-LR
(France),
MRI-ESM2-0
(Japan),
CanESM5
(Canadian),
BCC-CSM2-MR
(China),
reflect
uncertainty
GCMs.
averaged
projection
each
variable
across
GCMs
decrease
connected
with
particular
GCM.
presented
results
maps.
Annual
precipitation
totals
significantly
above
average
Central
East
Africa,
while
under
245
scenario,
Madagascar
would
experience
high
rainfall.
The
highest
temperature
anomalies
seen
parts
Greater
Horn
western
equatorial
regions,
north-western
part
continent.
Minimum
Maximum
predictions
showed
harsh
temperatures
previously
recorded
historical
years.
A
maximum
predicted
sub-Sahara
South
Somalia,
585.
MCD64A1
dataset
tagged
classify
forest
fire
risk
Africa.
Analysis
revealed
Savannah
tropical
subtropical
Further,
changes
rainfall
increased
leading
evaporation
directly
reduce
runoff
levels
recharge
groundwater
which
turn
will
have
negative
biodiversity,
agriculture,
security.
Notably,
played
positive
recent
negotiations
bright
initiatives
emerged.
Hopefully
they
solve
crisis
Global Change Biology,
Год журнала:
2023,
Номер
29(13), С. 3723 - 3746
Опубликована: Апрель 7, 2023
Climate
has
critical
roles
in
the
origin,
pathogenesis
and
transmission
of
infectious
zoonotic
diseases.
However,
large-scale
epidemiologic
trend
specific
response
pattern
diseases
under
future
climate
scenarios
are
poorly
understood.
Here,
we
projected
distribution
shifts
risks
main
change
China.
First,
shaped
global
habitat
host
animals
for
three
representative
(2,
6,
12
hosts
dengue,
hemorrhagic
fever,
plague,
respectively)
with
253,049
occurrence
records
using
maximum
entropy
(Maxent)
modeling.
Meanwhile,
predicted
risk
above
197,098
disease
incidence
from
2004
to
2017
China
an
integrated
Maxent
modeling
approach.
The
comparative
analysis
showed
that
there
exist
highly
coincident
niche
distributions
between
diseases,
indicating
is
accurate
effective
predicting
potential
On
this
basis,
further
current
11
four
concentration
pathways
(RCPs)
(RCP2.6,
RCP4.5,
RCP6.0,
RCP8.5)
2050
2070
1,001,416
records.
We
found
Central
China,
Southeast
South
concentrated
regions
high
More
specifically,
had
diverse
shift
patterns
including
increase,
decrease,
unstable.
Further
correlation
indicated
these
were
correlated
warming
precipitation
increase.
Our
results
revealed
how
respond
a
changing
climate,
thereby
calling
administration
prevention
strategies.
Furthermore,
will
shed
light
on
guiding
prediction
emerging
change.
Forests,
Год журнала:
2023,
Номер
14(6), С. 1220 - 1220
Опубликована: Июнь 13, 2023
In
China,
the
invasion
of
Spartina
alterniflora
is
an
important
driver
for
decrease
mangrove
area
and
ecological
service
functions
related
to
this
habitat.
past
few
decades,
S.
clearing
restoration
projects
have
mainly
focused
on
areas
where
it
already
changed
but
ignored
potential
distribution
areas.
This
study
suggested
that
implementation
protection
prior
with
threat
could
greatly
improve
efficiency
save
costs.
Thus,
using
Maximum
Entropy
Modeling
(MaxEnt),
we
estimated
spatial
both
mangroves
in
considering
current
data,
topographical,
sediments,
sea
surface
temperature
bioclimatic
variables.
What’s
more,
identified
calculated
distributed
each
province.
We
aimed
explore
(i)
key
factors
determining
along
coastline
(ii)
hotspots
their
competitive
occurrence,
including
degradation
areas,
order
support
conservation.
The
model
showed
distance
topography
play
roles
alterniflora,
while
were
more
sensitive
range
annual
temperature.
Our
results
furthermore
confirm
has
a
wider
(~10,585
km2)
than
(~9124
at
China;
predict
provinces
Zhangzhou,
Quanzhou,
Zhanjiang,
Beihai
Wenzhou
as
competition
between
alterniflora.
propose
priority
should
be
given
or
plants
those
which
are
co-suitable
these
management
measures
conducted
hinder
invasions
clear
existing
plants,
firstly.
provides
guidance
native
species
by
preventing
biological
invasion.
