European beewolf (Philanthus triangulum) will expand its geographic range as a result of climate warming DOI Creative Commons
Piotr Olszewski, Marcin K. Dyderski, Łukasz Dylewski

et al.

Regional Environmental Change, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 22(4)

Published: Oct. 21, 2022

Abstract Climate change is an important driver of the spread apiary pests and honeybee predators. These impact on one economically most pollinators thus pose serious threats to functioning both natural ecosystems crops. We investigated predicted climate in periods 2040–2060 2060–2080 potential distribution European beewolf Philanthus triangulum , a specialized predator. modelled its using MaxEnt method based contemporary occurrence data bioclimatic variables. Our model had overall good performance (AUC = 0.864) threshold probability, assessed as point with highest sum sensitivity specificity, was at 0.533. Annual temperature range (69.5%), mean warmest quarter (12.4%), precipitation (7.9%) were principal variables significantly affecting beewolf. shifts within two scenarios (optimistic RPC4.5 pessimistic RCP8.5) three Global Circulation Models (HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MPI-SM-LR). Both optimistic showed that will increase availability niches. Losses niches only affect small areas southern Europe. Most anticipated changes for period already have occurred 2040–2060. The expansion suggests abundance this species should be monitored.

Language: Английский

Predicted range shifts of alien tree species in Europe DOI
Radosław Puchałka, Sonia Paź‐Dyderska, Andrzej M. Jagodziński

et al.

Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 341, P. 109650 - 109650

Published: Aug. 6, 2023

Language: Английский

Citations

41
Global Warming Status in the African Continent: Sources, Challenges, Policies, and Future Direction DOI Creative Commons
Heba Bedair, Mubaraka S. Alghariani,

Esraa Omar

et al.

International Journal of Environmental Research, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 17(3)

Published: June 1, 2023

Abstract Africa is the second largest continent after Asia, having a larger than 30 million km 2 area. Doubtlessly, one of biggest ecological and societal problems twenty-first century climate change. Since early 1970s, it has been clear that already experiencing effects change, given rise to wide range new unusual phenomena, such as rising temperatures, poor agricultural output, extreme different weather scenarios, spread disease, among other things. Therefore, current review aims at screening impact change on sector, human health food security in compared continents, evaluating projections future highlighting role African leaders mitigating adapting these effects. Artificial intelligence, remote sensing, high-tech algorithms were applied analyze Historical data downloaded near real-time from January 2009 present FAO Water Productivity Open-access portal WaPOR Terra Climate datasets Earth Engine platform. Assessment process was performed using Google Engine, whereas WorldClim 2.1. We used 2021–2040 timelines two scenarios: SSP245 SSP585. For SSP timeline, we four versions, based global circulation models (GCMs): IPSL-CM6A-LR (France), MRI-ESM2-0 (Japan), CanESM5 (Canadian), BCC-CSM2-MR (China), reflect uncertainty GCMs. averaged projection each variable across GCMs decrease connected with particular GCM. presented results maps. Annual precipitation totals significantly above average Central East Africa, while under 245 scenario, Madagascar would experience high rainfall. The highest temperature anomalies seen parts Greater Horn western equatorial regions, north-western part continent. Minimum Maximum predictions showed harsh temperatures previously recorded historical years. A maximum predicted sub-Sahara South Somalia, 585. MCD64A1 dataset tagged classify forest fire risk Africa. Analysis revealed Savannah tropical subtropical Further, changes rainfall increased leading evaporation directly reduce runoff levels recharge groundwater which turn will have negative biodiversity, agriculture, security. Notably, played positive recent negotiations bright initiatives emerged. Hopefully they solve crisis

Language: Английский

Citations

36
Dynamics of the distribution of invasive alien plants (Asteraceae) in China under climate change DOI
Wenjun Yang, Shuxia Sun,

Naixian Wang

et al.

The Science of The Total Environment, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 903, P. 166260 - 166260

Published: Aug. 12, 2023

Language: Английский

Citations

30
Climate change will cause climatic niche contraction of Vaccinium myrtillus L. and V. vitis-idaea L. in Europe DOI
Radosław Puchałka, Sonia Paź‐Dyderska, Beata Woziwoda

et al.

The Science of The Total Environment, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 892, P. 164483 - 164483

Published: June 1, 2023

Language: Английский

Citations

19
Tracing the future of epidemics: Coincident niche distribution of host animals and disease incidence revealed climate‐correlated risk shifts of main zoonotic diseases in China DOI
Bo Cao, Chengke Bai, Kunyi Wu

et al.

Global Change Biology, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 29(13), P. 3723 - 3746

Published: April 7, 2023

Climate has critical roles in the origin, pathogenesis and transmission of infectious zoonotic diseases. However, large-scale epidemiologic trend specific response pattern diseases under future climate scenarios are poorly understood. Here, we projected distribution shifts risks main change China. First, shaped global habitat host animals for three representative (2, 6, 12 hosts dengue, hemorrhagic fever, plague, respectively) with 253,049 occurrence records using maximum entropy (Maxent) modeling. Meanwhile, predicted risk above 197,098 disease incidence from 2004 to 2017 China an integrated Maxent modeling approach. The comparative analysis showed that there exist highly coincident niche distributions between diseases, indicating is accurate effective predicting potential On this basis, further current 11 four concentration pathways (RCPs) (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, RCP8.5) 2050 2070 1,001,416 records. We found Central China, Southeast South concentrated regions high More specifically, had diverse shift patterns including increase, decrease, unstable. Further correlation indicated these were correlated warming precipitation increase. Our results revealed how respond a changing climate, thereby calling administration prevention strategies. Furthermore, will shed light on guiding prediction emerging change.

Language: Английский

Citations

17
Shifts in native tree species distributions in Europe under climate change DOI Creative Commons
Marcin K. Dyderski, Sonia Paź‐Dyderska, Andrzej M. Jagodziński

et al.

Journal of Environmental Management, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 373, P. 123504 - 123504

Published: Dec. 6, 2024

Language: Английский

Citations

8
Identifying priorities under highly heterogeneous environments through species distribution models to facilitate orchid conservation DOI
Xue‐Man Wang, Ying Tang,

Xuefeng Peng

et al.

Biodiversity and Conservation, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 33(2), P. 647 - 665

Published: Jan. 12, 2024

Language: Английский

Citations

7
Conservation and Restoration of Mangroves in Response to Invasion of Spartina alterniflora Based on the MaxEnt Model: A Case Study in China DOI Open Access
Lina Cui, Uta Berger,

Minmin Cao

et al.

Forests, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 14(6), P. 1220 - 1220

Published: June 13, 2023

In China, the invasion of Spartina alterniflora is an important driver for decrease mangrove area and ecological service functions related to this habitat. past few decades, S. clearing restoration projects have mainly focused on areas where it already changed but ignored potential distribution areas. This study suggested that implementation protection prior with threat could greatly improve efficiency save costs. Thus, using Maximum Entropy Modeling (MaxEnt), we estimated spatial both mangroves in considering current data, topographical, sediments, sea surface temperature bioclimatic variables. What’s more, identified calculated distributed each province. We aimed explore (i) key factors determining along coastline (ii) hotspots their competitive occurrence, including degradation areas, order support conservation. The model showed distance topography play roles alterniflora, while were more sensitive range annual temperature. Our results furthermore confirm has a wider (~10,585 km2) than (~9124 at China; predict provinces Zhangzhou, Quanzhou, Zhanjiang, Beihai Wenzhou as competition between alterniflora. propose priority should be given or plants those which are co-suitable these management measures conducted hinder invasions clear existing plants, firstly. provides guidance native species by preventing biological invasion.

Language: Английский

Citations

15
An integrated urban flooding risk analysis framework leveraging machine learning models: A case study of Xi'an, China DOI
Wen Li, Rengui Jiang, Hao Wu

et al.

International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 112, P. 104770 - 104770

Published: Aug. 23, 2024

Language: Английский

Citations

5
Forest herb species with similar European geographic ranges may respond differently to climate change DOI
Radosław Puchałka, Sonia Paź‐Dyderska, Łukasz Dylewski

et al.

The Science of The Total Environment, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 905, P. 167303 - 167303

Published: Sept. 22, 2023

Language: Английский

Citations

12