Demystifying global climate models for use in the life sciences

Trends in Ecology & Evolution, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 38(9), С. 843 - 858

Опубликована: Май 11, 2023

Язык: Английский

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Identifying core habitats and connectivity paths for the conservation of mouflon (Ovis gmelini) in Western Iran

Global Ecology and Conservation, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 41, С. e02377 - e02377

Опубликована: Янв. 1, 2023

Connectivity among conservation areas helps to alleviate the negative impacts of habitat fragmentation. Mouflon (Ovis gmelini) as a near threatened species has an unclear connectivity status in west Iran. This study was carried out on mouflon with aim modeling suitability and core habitats An ensemble three machine-learning models factorial least-cost path were used for identifying corridors between them, respectively. Our results revealed that grassland density, elevation, slope distance roads most influential variables predicting occurrence area. Five identified area, about 90% which covered by areas. The north area is highest priority conservation. Conservation northern western parts had best mouflon. To prevent poaching, protection should be considered. In addition, predicted crossed roads, could investigated wildlife managers.

Язык: Английский

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Climate change induces habitat shifts and overlaps among carnivores in an arid and semi-arid ecosystem

Ecological Informatics, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 77, С. 102247 - 102247

Опубликована: Авг. 6, 2023

Distribution range shift is inevitable for many species as climate change continues to shape and alter their habitat. Predicting where these shifts occur can help us know what anticipate thus design better programs strategies management. Due projected extreme in arid semi-arid ecosystems, we hypothesized that adapted systems would experience considerable spatial shifts. To test our hypothesis, modelled current future habitats under different scenarios three iconic carnivores (grey wolf, golden jackal, striped hyaena) central of Iran calculated overlaps. Our models predict although each responds differently environmental changes, are heavily influenced by climatic variables, water resources, roads. also suggest the high-quality grey wolves hyaenas will probably expand, while jackals, it decrease. Significant overlap highly suitable habitat exist among species, particularly between jackal hyaena. The overlapped areas all cover 9% 10% whole region at present future. Because decrease rainfall future, may face competition due change. findings crucial establishing conservation conserve carnivore

Язык: Английский

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Diversity, diversification and distribution of Iranian vertebrates: the legacy of mountains uplifting, past climatic oscillations, sea level fluctuations and geographical barriers

Biodiversity and Conservation, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 32(1), С. 7 - 36

Опубликована: Ноя. 11, 2022

Язык: Английский

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Iran’s Dam Waterbodies: A 10-Year Trend Analysis (2013–2023)

Journal of Landscape Ecology, Год журнала: 2025, Номер unknown

Опубликована: Фев. 2, 2025

Abstract Previous studies have shown instances where aquatic ecosystems in Iran experienced water loss even the absence of upstream dams, while other with dams did not show significant declines levels. Thus, attributing drying these solely to climate change watershed is definitive, especially when levels behind increased wetlands’ volumes decreased due diversion. This complexity underscores challenge linking decline exclusively change, as reduced rainfall would naturally lead well. study addresses this complex issue by analyzing 60 bodies across various regions from 2013 2023, using Landsat 8 satellite images and AWEIsh index. We employed linear regression detect surface trends during period. Our findings revealed statistically (P-value < 0.05) 13 out bodies, four showing an increasing trend levels, indicating diverse precipitation patterns rather than a uniform decline. Among these, nine reflecting their watersheds over past decade. supports existing research highlighting change’s impact on Iran’s resources. Despite declining temperatures certain regions, our also reveals that areas faced such severe conditions. In fact, some seen notable increase dam emphasizes importance impartial assessment reserves, free preconceived notions previous studies. Such objective evaluation crucial for effective management

Язык: Английский

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A Different Destiny After the Ice Age: Impacts of Climate Change on the Global Biogeography of Carasobarbus

Environmental and Sustainability Indicators, Год журнала: 2025, Номер unknown, С. 100646 - 100646

Опубликована: Фев. 1, 2025

Язык: Английский

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Predicting habitat suitability of Chilean jack mackerel under different climate scenarios

Journal of Oceanology and Limnology, Год журнала: 2025, Номер unknown

Опубликована: Март 20, 2025

Язык: Английский

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Climate‐Driven Range Shifts and Conservation Challenges for Brown Bears in Türkiye

Ecology and Evolution, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 15(4)

Опубликована: Апрель 1, 2025

ABSTRACT Understanding the current and future distribution of wildlife species is crucial for effective conservation planning, particularly in face climate change increasing anthropogenic pressures. This study aims to assess potential brown bears across Türkiye both presently, by 2050 2070, considering various scenarios, evaluating habitat vulnerability, reassessing effectiveness protected areas. Using an ensemble forecasting approach, we modeled bears' suitability, incorporating 608 occurrence records along with bioclimatic, topographic, predictors under scenarios. Our model estimates that approximately 17.3% (135,556 km 2 ) currently offers suitable highest suitability found Euro‐Siberian (46%), Irano‐Turanian (43%), Mediterranean (11%) biogeographic regions. The results indicate combined pressures, expected reduce bear 40%–48% 2050, 40%–67% 2070 A significant contraction range, a northward shift habitats, projected, reflecting broader impacts climate. Additionally, habitats estimated be strongly influenced changes altitude. proportion protection projected decline from 21.4% 15%–16.1% further 11.3%–15.9% depending on scenario. These findings highlight need targeted strategies address emerging gap Mediterranean, Irano‐Turanian, Enhancing connectivity between fragmented status areas are critical actions safeguard population Türkiye. underscores pressing challenges strategic opportunities securing

Язык: Английский

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Climate change impacts on altitudinal movements of society large mammals in the Alborz

Scientific Reports, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 15(1)

Опубликована: Апрель 13, 2025

This study examines the impact of climate change on altitudinal movement patterns and number individuals four large mammal species within Central Alborz Protected Area (CAPA) region Mountains, a biodiversity hotspot, over 23-year period (1999 to 2022). During warm season (May 25-September 29), temperatures were reported have increased by 2-2.5 °C, while relative humidity was observed decreased 4-4.5%. Compared past two decades (2000-2022), Caspian red deer initiate their annual high-altitude migrations 15-20 days earlier, with in summer range increasing more than threefold. Wild goats also migrated peak arrivals from 20-36 (1999-2003) 36-57 (2018-2022) between May 25 31, highlighting temperature as primary driver herbivore movement. In contrast, brown bears exhibited subtle movement, likely influenced both humidity. boars, an approximate 40% increase individuals, tended return lower elevations earlier previous years (1999-2003). These highlight role significant regulator ecology, influencing habitat use. However, human-induced barriers, such roads settlements, present additional threats these seasonal migrations. underscores urgent need for adaptive management strategies, including protection corridors, expansion core zones, enhanced community engagement, support resilience under changing climatic conditions.

Язык: Английский

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Impacts of Climate‐Land Dynamics on Global Population and Sub‐Populations of a Desert Equid

Global Change Biology, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 31(4)

Опубликована: Апрель 1, 2025

ABSTRACT Climate change and escalating land‐use transformations pose a significant threat to global biodiversity by disrupting natural habitats. The Asiatic wild ass ( Equus hemionus ), near‐threatened species, faces various pressures across its Asian range. This study employs niche modeling approach assess suitable habitats for the at both population sub‐population levels. analysis integrates impacts of climate scenarios land use three temporal periods: past, present, future. To investigate uncertainty models habitat, we used two models, CMIP5 CMIP6, Niche overlap were developed examine patterns similarity among sub‐populations. results demonstrate severe decline in habitat area number viable patches all Projections reveal that Mongolian Indian endure highest levels isolation loss, alongside extinct Syrian ass. Sub‐population often predict larger distributions compared using same inputs. outputs indicate underscoring necessity accounting ecological conservation perspectives understand species distribution dynamics. Our highlights need consider assessments. These provide essential guidance strategies identifying sites reintroduction. Identifying as refuges large herbivores amidst changes fluctuations is crucial. Incorporating these into planning imperative preserving biodiversity.

Язык: Английский

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