Predicting the habitat suitability and niche dynamics of two Ziziphus species in response to climate change

Authorea (Authorea), Год журнала: 2024, Номер unknown

Опубликована: Март 18, 2024

Climate change, a global threat of utmost significance, has the potential to trigger shifts in biodiversity distribution and emergence novel ecological communities. For species with limited dispersal abilities or geographical barriers within their range, niche conservatism can further constrain ability colonize thrive future suitable habitats, rendering them more vulnerable effects climate change. In this study, an ensemble modeling framework climatic dynamics analysis were employed forecast impact change on dimensions transferability two indicator species, namely, Ziziphus spina-christi nummularia, Iran. Our revealed that, under optimistic pessimistic scenarios, habitat suitability for Z. will expand during 2041-2070 2071-2100, predominantly towards higher latitudes. contrast, nummularia is anticipated experience general decline same periods resulting loss portions its southern range. examination unveiled relatively low observed overlap between species. Randomization tests underscored adherence these historical niches, suggesting challenges adapting changing conditions. The integration predictive models indicates that may encounter difficulties migrating tracked niches distant habitats due preserved niches. Given high sensitivity arid ecosystems environmental disturbances slow recovery rates, repercussions land are indeed profound irrevocable. Conservation management measures, including identifying priority areas creating artificial crucial protect species’ habitats.The study’s conclusions valuable conservation authorities, local stakeholders, individuals dedicated preserving study area.

Язык: Английский

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Habitat Analysis and Conservation Priorities for the Endangered Spotted Linsang in China: Insights from Infrared Camera Data and Species Distribution Modeling

Опубликована: Янв. 1, 2024

Spotted linsang is an endangered Prionodontidae species mainly distributed in southwestern China and Southeast Asia. In recent years, the habitat of spotted has dramatically decreased owing to impacts climate change anthropological activities. Existing studies on have focused genomics-related content; however, few predicting conservation status. this study, we analyzed activity rhythms preferences using infrared camera data obtained from Chebaling National Nature Reserve. Based MaxEnt model, established a distribution model combining bioclimatic, topographic, vegetation, human footprint clarify gaps priority areas China. Our results indicate that typical nocturnal mammal, with its peak period occurring autumn. It inhabits evergreen broad-leaved forests evergreen-deciduous broadleaved mixed at elevations < 1000 m. Its suitable region China, accounting for approximately 15.67% China's total land area. Annual temperature range, annual precipitation, precipitation driest month, mean diurnal normalized difference vegetation index, type are six main factors influencing linsang. There significant 12 provinces where distributed, unprotected outside nature reserves constituting > 85% Priority include Hengduan Mountains, border Guangxi Guangdong, northeastern regions Fujian Province. These elucidate behavioral patterns provide reference future targeted efforts

Язык: Английский

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Predicting the Potential Global Distribution of the Plum Fruit Moth Grapholita funebrana Treitscheke Using Ensemble Models

Insects, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 15(9), С. 663 - 663

Опубликована: Авг. 30, 2024

The plum fruit moth, Grapholita funebrana Treitschke, is one of the most significant borer pests, often causing huge economic losses in production. However, potential distribution range this economically important pest still poorly understood. For study, we simulated an ensemble species model to predict spatiotemporal pattern G. at a global scale. results show that suitable habitats for under current environmental conditions, are mainly distributed Europe; East Asia, including China and Japan; Central Asia; some parts America. In future projections, predicted generally expand northward, while area will remain unchanged overall. highly habitat decrease only 17.49% found conditions. None nine factors used were revealed be predominant predictors terms contributing model, suggesting integrated effects these variables shape funebrana’s distribution. has been predicted, especially regions with habitat, poses high risk outbreaks, highlighting urgency management. Moreover, United States America (USA) Japan (for which distributions not previously recorded), areas monitoring quarantine measures should strengthened prevent colonization further dispersal pest, as seen its close relative molesta, become cosmopolitan species, migrating from native region (East Asia) other continents, Americas.

Язык: Английский

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Potential global distributions of an important aphid pest, Rhopalosiphum padi: insights from ensemble models with multiple variables

Journal of Economic Entomology, Год журнала: 2024, Номер unknown

Опубликована: Окт. 8, 2024

Species distribution modeling is extensively used for predicting potential distributions of invasive species. However, an ensemble approach has been less frequently particularly pest The bird cherry-oat aphid Rhopalosiphum padi L. important wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) worldwide and causes 30% yield losses. Here, we developed a series models with multiple variables to predict the habitat suitability this at global scale. current suitable R. mainly distributed in East Asia, South Europe, southern North America, eastern Australia, New Zealand. highly regions are primarily east China, Japan, most southeastern edge Australia. In future scenarios, habitats will undergo significant contraction overall northward, no moderately nor predicted other areas. Our findings indicate that high risk outbreaks currently exists mentioned above, especially cultivation, but capacity cause such weaken future. Climate-associated factors significantly more than land use, elevation host-plant factors, BIO11 (mean temperature coldest quarter), particular, predominated shaping projections padi's distribution. pattern key ecological affecting identified herein could provide guidance developing management policies targeting economically pest.

Язык: Английский

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