Climate change will accelerate the high-end risk of compound drought and heatwave events

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 120(28)

Опубликована: Июль 3, 2023

Compound drought and heatwave (CDHW) events have garnered increased attention due to their significant impacts on agriculture, energy, water resources, ecosystems. We quantify the projected future shifts in CDHW characteristics (such as frequency, duration, severity) continued anthropogenic warming relative baseline recent observed period (1982 2019). combine weekly information for 26 climate divisions across globe, employing historical model output from eight Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 GCMs three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. Statistically trends are revealed both simulated (2020 2099). East Africa, North Australia, America, Central Asia, Europe, Southeastern South America show greatest increase frequency through late 21st century. The Southern Hemisphere displays a greater occurrence, while Northern severity. Regional warmings play role changes most regions. These findings implications minimizing of extreme developing adaptation mitigation policies cope with risk water, food sectors critical geographical

Язык: Английский

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Compound droughts and hot extremes: Characteristics, drivers, changes, and impacts

Earth-Science Reviews, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 235, С. 104241 - 104241

Опубликована: Ноя. 8, 2022

Язык: Английский

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The role of climate change and urban development on compound dry-hot extremes across US cities

Nature Communications, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 14(1)

Опубликована: Июнь 14, 2023

Compound dry-hot extreme (CDHE) events pose greater risks to the environment, society, and human health than their univariate counterparts. Here, we project decadal-length changes in frequency duration of CDHE for major U.S. cities during 21st century. Using Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model coupled an urban canopy parameterization, find a considerable increase future across all under compound effect high-intensity GHG- development-induced warming. Our results indicate that while GHG-induced warming is primary driver increased events, development amplifies this should not be neglected. Furthermore, We show highest amplification expected Great Plains South, Southwest, southern part Northwest National Climate Assessment regions.

Язык: Английский

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Regional drivers and characteristics of multi-year droughts

Weather and Climate Extremes, Год журнала: 2025, Номер unknown, С. 100748 - 100748

Опубликована: Фев. 1, 2025

Язык: Английский

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Drought–heatwave nexus in Brazil and related impacts on health and fires: A comprehensive review

Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 1517(1), С. 44 - 62

Опубликована: Сен. 2, 2022

Abstract Climate change is drastically altering the frequency, duration, and severity of compound drought‐heatwave (CDHW) episodes, which present a new challenge in environmental socioeconomic sectors. These threats are particular importance low‐income regions with growing populations, fragile infrastructure, threatened ecosystems. This review synthesizes emerging progress understanding CDHW patterns Brazil while providing insights about impacts on fire occurrence public health. Evidence mounting that heatwaves becoming increasingly linked droughts northeastern southeastern Brazil, Amazonia, Pantanal. In those regions, recent studies have begun to build better physical mechanisms behind events, such as soil moisture–atmosphere coupling, promoted by exceptional atmospheric blocking conditions. Results hint at synergy between events high activity country over last decades, most example being catastrophic 2020 fires Moreover, we show HWs were responsible for increasing mortality preterm births during record‐breaking Brazil. work paves way more in‐depth their impacts, crucial enhance adaptive capacity different Brazilian

Язык: Английский

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Drought-heatwave compound events are stronger in drylands

Weather and Climate Extremes, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 42, С. 100632 - 100632

Опубликована: Ноя. 22, 2023

Climate change is exacerbating the occurrence of compound droughts and heatwaves (CDHWs), which pose a serious threat to human health socio-economic development. Using daily maximum temperature (Tmax) monthly self-calibrating Palmer drought severity index (sc-PDSI) dataset, The evolution patterns CDHWs wet-heatwave events, dominant drivers relative contributions in drylands humid areas from 1961 2020 were compared analyzed. results show that types are stronger than areas, growth rate was almost twice greater multi-year average intensity events by up 2.4 times. Moreover, has increased significantly past period (1961–1990) recent warm (1991–2020), heatwave threshold about 5 °C. In most drylands, contribution dominates, whereas does. compounding effects may exacerbate regionally pronounced taking into account optimal lags. study findings could provide scientific technological support actively address global climate risks.

Язык: Английский

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Three-dimensional-based global drought projection under global warming tendency

Atmospheric Research, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 291, С. 106812 - 106812

Опубликована: Май 16, 2023

Язык: Английский

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Deep learning with autoencoders and LSTM for ENSO forecasting

Climate Dynamics, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 62(6), С. 5683 - 5697

Опубликована: Март 22, 2024

Abstract El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the prominent recurrent climatic pattern in tropical Pacific Ocean with global impacts on regional climates. This study utilizes deep learning to predict 3.4 index by encoding non-linear sea surface temperature patterns using an autoencoder neural network. The resulting encoded identify crucial centers of action that serve as predictors ENSO mode. These are utilized for forecasting a lead time at least 6 months Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model. analysis uncovers multiple dipole Pacific, anomalies both regionalized and latitudinally oriented should support single inter-tropical convergence zone modeling efforts. Leveraging these predictors, LSTM - trained monthly data from 1950 2007 tested 2008 2022 shows fidelity predicting index. captured annual cycle 0.94 correlation between actual predicted lag 12 0.91 lags 18. Additionally, 6-month predictions excel detecting extreme events, achieving 85% hit rate, outperforming 70% rate 55% prediction accuracy peaks November March, correlations ranging 0.96. average boreal spring were large 0.84, indicating method has capability decrease predictability barrier.

Язык: Английский

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Drought- and heatwave-associated compound extremes: A review of hotspots, variables, parameters, drivers, impacts, and analysis frameworks

Frontiers in Earth Science, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 10

Опубликована: Фев. 3, 2023

Droughts and heatwaves are rising concerns with regard to the frequent formation of compound or concurrent extremes (CEs), which can cause greater havoc than an individual event a higher magnitude. Recently, they have been frequently detected form CEs together other events (e.g., floods, aridity, humidity events) concurrently spatiotemporal lags. Therefore, this systematic review assesses these by reviewing following aspects: CE hotspots, events, variable combinations that CEs; analyzed parameters frequency severity); large-scale modes climate variability (CV) as drivers alongside approaches relate them impacts yield loss fire risk) impact integration from 166 screened publications. Additionally, three varied analysis frameworks summarized highlight different components drought- heatwave-associated CEs, is novelty study. The vary major assessment objectives: only (event–event), driver association (event–driver), (event–impact). According review, most reported hotspots in global studies southern Africa, Australia, South America, Southeast Asia. In regional studies, several vital Iberian Peninsula, Balkans, Mediterranean Basin) reported, some not mentioned because usually report broader regions. addition, drought heatwave; heatwave stagnation) varying combination variables, namely, temperature, precipitation, their derived indices. Thus, study presents for prospective researchers.

Язык: Английский

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Longer‐ and Slower‐Moving Contiguous Heatwaves Linked to El Niño

Geophysical Research Letters, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 51(11)

Опубликована: Май 29, 2024

Abstract Although it is known that the frequency and intensity of heatwaves are affected by El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), unknown ENSO modulations on moving properties (e.g., distance speed) spatiotemporally contiguous heatwaves. Here, we investigate relationship between patterns We show likely more frequent, persistent, longer‐traveling, but slower‐moving during Niño than La Niña episodes. The differences in tropical influenced persistent high‐pressure anomalies. During following summers, can induce anomalous atmospheric circulation characterized an intensified subsidence over western North Pacific ascending motion Indian Oceans. These features provide favorable conditions for occurrence maintenance

Язык: Английский

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