Natural Hazards,
Год журнала:
2023,
Номер
119(1), С. 357 - 386
Опубликована: Авг. 17, 2023
Abstract
Compound
extreme
natural
events
cause
a
significantly
larger
impact
than
individual
events.
Therefore,
the
urgency
of
exploring
climatology
compound
is
growing.
This
paper
aimed
to
identify
current
hotspots
heatwaves
and
droughts
(CHD)
trends
in
their
occurrence
southeast
Australia.
In
this
context,
61
weather
stations
were
selected
from
study
area,
analyses
carried
out
over
extended
summer
season
time
period
1971–2021.
The
CHDs
Australia
identified
considering
both
total
count
CHD
days
90th
percentile
during
period.
was
divided
into
two
periods
1971–2000
2001–2021,
assess
change
spatially
temporally.
Four
different
attributes
based
on
number,
duration,
severity
amplitude
also
calculated,
Mann–Kendall
(MK)
test
followed
by
Sen’s
slope
adopted
detect
all
these
four
CHDs.
Trends
indices
calculated
for
2001–2021.
For
calculating
CHD,
excess
heat
factor
(EHF)
used
heatwaves.
case
drought
identification,
SPEI
SPI
with
aggregation
3
126
antecedent
months,
three
threshold
values
consider
levels
dry
conditions,
e.g.
0,
−
0.5
1.0.
It
has
been
found
that
more
occurred
eastern
side
NSW
Queensland
states.
Furthermore,
increased
notably
last
decades.
be
significant
recent
(2001–2021),
there
no
trend
earlier
(1971–2000).
findings
will
help
plan
drought-related
emergency
management
area.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,
Год журнала:
2023,
Номер
120(28)
Опубликована: Июль 3, 2023
Compound
drought
and
heatwave
(CDHW)
events
have
garnered
increased
attention
due
to
their
significant
impacts
on
agriculture,
energy,
water
resources,
ecosystems.
We
quantify
the
projected
future
shifts
in
CDHW
characteristics
(such
as
frequency,
duration,
severity)
continued
anthropogenic
warming
relative
baseline
recent
observed
period
(1982
2019).
combine
weekly
information
for
26
climate
divisions
across
globe,
employing
historical
model
output
from
eight
Coupled
Model
Intercomparison
Project
6
GCMs
three
Shared
Socioeconomic
Pathways.
Statistically
trends
are
revealed
both
simulated
(2020
2099).
East
Africa,
North
Australia,
America,
Central
Asia,
Europe,
Southeastern
South
America
show
greatest
increase
frequency
through
late
21st
century.
The
Southern
Hemisphere
displays
a
greater
occurrence,
while
Northern
severity.
Regional
warmings
play
role
changes
most
regions.
These
findings
implications
minimizing
of
extreme
developing
adaptation
mitigation
policies
cope
with
risk
water,
food
sectors
critical
geographical
Nature Communications,
Год журнала:
2023,
Номер
14(1)
Опубликована: Июнь 14, 2023
Compound
dry-hot
extreme
(CDHE)
events
pose
greater
risks
to
the
environment,
society,
and
human
health
than
their
univariate
counterparts.
Here,
we
project
decadal-length
changes
in
frequency
duration
of
CDHE
for
major
U.S.
cities
during
21st
century.
Using
Weather
Research
Forecasting
(WRF)
model
coupled
an
urban
canopy
parameterization,
find
a
considerable
increase
future
across
all
under
compound
effect
high-intensity
GHG-
development-induced
warming.
Our
results
indicate
that
while
GHG-induced
warming
is
primary
driver
increased
events,
development
amplifies
this
should
not
be
neglected.
Furthermore,
We
show
highest
amplification
expected
Great
Plains
South,
Southwest,
southern
part
Northwest
National
Climate
Assessment
regions.
Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences,
Год журнала:
2022,
Номер
1517(1), С. 44 - 62
Опубликована: Сен. 2, 2022
Abstract
Climate
change
is
drastically
altering
the
frequency,
duration,
and
severity
of
compound
drought‐heatwave
(CDHW)
episodes,
which
present
a
new
challenge
in
environmental
socioeconomic
sectors.
These
threats
are
particular
importance
low‐income
regions
with
growing
populations,
fragile
infrastructure,
threatened
ecosystems.
This
review
synthesizes
emerging
progress
understanding
CDHW
patterns
Brazil
while
providing
insights
about
impacts
on
fire
occurrence
public
health.
Evidence
mounting
that
heatwaves
becoming
increasingly
linked
droughts
northeastern
southeastern
Brazil,
Amazonia,
Pantanal.
In
those
regions,
recent
studies
have
begun
to
build
better
physical
mechanisms
behind
events,
such
as
soil
moisture–atmosphere
coupling,
promoted
by
exceptional
atmospheric
blocking
conditions.
Results
hint
at
synergy
between
events
high
activity
country
over
last
decades,
most
example
being
catastrophic
2020
fires
Moreover,
we
show
HWs
were
responsible
for
increasing
mortality
preterm
births
during
record‐breaking
Brazil.
work
paves
way
more
in‐depth
their
impacts,
crucial
enhance
adaptive
capacity
different
Brazilian
Weather and Climate Extremes,
Год журнала:
2023,
Номер
42, С. 100632 - 100632
Опубликована: Ноя. 22, 2023
Climate
change
is
exacerbating
the
occurrence
of
compound
droughts
and
heatwaves
(CDHWs),
which
pose
a
serious
threat
to
human
health
socio-economic
development.
Using
daily
maximum
temperature
(Tmax)
monthly
self-calibrating
Palmer
drought
severity
index
(sc-PDSI)
dataset,
The
evolution
patterns
CDHWs
wet-heatwave
events,
dominant
drivers
relative
contributions
in
drylands
humid
areas
from
1961
2020
were
compared
analyzed.
results
show
that
types
are
stronger
than
areas,
growth
rate
was
almost
twice
greater
multi-year
average
intensity
events
by
up
2.4
times.
Moreover,
has
increased
significantly
past
period
(1961–1990)
recent
warm
(1991–2020),
heatwave
threshold
about
5
°C.
In
most
drylands,
contribution
dominates,
whereas
does.
compounding
effects
may
exacerbate
regionally
pronounced
taking
into
account
optimal
lags.
study
findings
could
provide
scientific
technological
support
actively
address
global
climate
risks.
Climate Dynamics,
Год журнала:
2024,
Номер
62(6), С. 5683 - 5697
Опубликована: Март 22, 2024
Abstract
El
Niño
Southern
Oscillation
(ENSO)
is
the
prominent
recurrent
climatic
pattern
in
tropical
Pacific
Ocean
with
global
impacts
on
regional
climates.
This
study
utilizes
deep
learning
to
predict
3.4
index
by
encoding
non-linear
sea
surface
temperature
patterns
using
an
autoencoder
neural
network.
The
resulting
encoded
identify
crucial
centers
of
action
that
serve
as
predictors
ENSO
mode.
These
are
utilized
for
forecasting
a
lead
time
at
least
6
months
Long
Short-Term
Memory
(LSTM)
model.
analysis
uncovers
multiple
dipole
Pacific,
anomalies
both
regionalized
and
latitudinally
oriented
should
support
single
inter-tropical
convergence
zone
modeling
efforts.
Leveraging
these
predictors,
LSTM
-
trained
monthly
data
from
1950
2007
tested
2008
2022
shows
fidelity
predicting
index.
captured
annual
cycle
0.94
correlation
between
actual
predicted
lag
12
0.91
lags
18.
Additionally,
6-month
predictions
excel
detecting
extreme
events,
achieving
85%
hit
rate,
outperforming
70%
rate
55%
prediction
accuracy
peaks
November
March,
correlations
ranging
0.96.
average
boreal
spring
were
large
0.84,
indicating
method
has
capability
decrease
predictability
barrier.
Frontiers in Earth Science,
Год журнала:
2023,
Номер
10
Опубликована: Фев. 3, 2023
Droughts
and
heatwaves
are
rising
concerns
with
regard
to
the
frequent
formation
of
compound
or
concurrent
extremes
(CEs),
which
can
cause
greater
havoc
than
an
individual
event
a
higher
magnitude.
Recently,
they
have
been
frequently
detected
form
CEs
together
other
events
(e.g.,
floods,
aridity,
humidity
events)
concurrently
spatiotemporal
lags.
Therefore,
this
systematic
review
assesses
these
by
reviewing
following
aspects:
CE
hotspots,
events,
variable
combinations
that
CEs;
analyzed
parameters
frequency
severity);
large-scale
modes
climate
variability
(CV)
as
drivers
alongside
approaches
relate
them
impacts
yield
loss
fire
risk)
impact
integration
from
166
screened
publications.
Additionally,
three
varied
analysis
frameworks
summarized
highlight
different
components
drought-
heatwave-associated
CEs,
is
novelty
study.
The
vary
major
assessment
objectives:
only
(event–event),
driver
association
(event–driver),
(event–impact).
According
review,
most
reported
hotspots
in
global
studies
southern
Africa,
Australia,
South
America,
Southeast
Asia.
In
regional
studies,
several
vital
Iberian
Peninsula,
Balkans,
Mediterranean
Basin)
reported,
some
not
mentioned
because
usually
report
broader
regions.
addition,
drought
heatwave;
heatwave
stagnation)
varying
combination
variables,
namely,
temperature,
precipitation,
their
derived
indices.
Thus,
study
presents
for
prospective
researchers.
Geophysical Research Letters,
Год журнала:
2024,
Номер
51(11)
Опубликована: Май 29, 2024
Abstract
Although
it
is
known
that
the
frequency
and
intensity
of
heatwaves
are
affected
by
El
Niño–Southern
Oscillation
(ENSO),
unknown
ENSO
modulations
on
moving
properties
(e.g.,
distance
speed)
spatiotemporally
contiguous
heatwaves.
Here,
we
investigate
relationship
between
patterns
We
show
likely
more
frequent,
persistent,
longer‐traveling,
but
slower‐moving
during
Niño
than
La
Niña
episodes.
The
differences
in
tropical
influenced
persistent
high‐pressure
anomalies.
During
following
summers,
can
induce
anomalous
atmospheric
circulation
characterized
an
intensified
subsidence
over
western
North
Pacific
ascending
motion
Indian
Oceans.
These
features
provide
favorable
conditions
for
occurrence
maintenance