How to stop being surprised by unprecedented weather

Nature Communications, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 16(1)

Опубликована: Март 10, 2025

Abstract We see unprecedented weather causing widespread impacts across the world. In this perspective, we provide an overview of methods that help anticipate hazards can contribute to stop being surprised. then discuss disaster management and climate adaptation practices, their gaps, how may build resilience. stimulate thinking about transformative as a foundation for long-term resilience weather, supported by incremental through upgrading existing infrastructure, reactive short-term early action response. Because in end, should take responsibility rather than surprised weather.

Язык: Английский

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Storylines for unprecedented heatwaves based on ensemble boosting

Nature Communications, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 14(1)

Опубликована: Авг. 22, 2023

Recent temperature extremes have shattered previously observed records, reaching intensities that were inconceivable before the events. Could possibility of an event with such unprecedented intensity as 2021 Pacific Northwest heatwave been foreseen, based on climate model information available event? scientific community quantified its potential current generation models? Here, we demonstrate how ensemble boosting approach can be used to generate physically plausible storylines a hotter than in Northwest. We also show heatwaves much greater ever are possible other locations like Greater Chicago and Paris regions. In order establish confidence 'black swan'-type events, different lines evidence need combined along process understanding make this robust actionable for stakeholders.

Язык: Английский

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Managing water across the flood-drought spectrum – experiences from and challenges for the Netherlands

Cambridge Prisms Water, Год журнала: 2023, Номер unknown, С. 1 - 22

Опубликована: Май 30, 2023

An abstract is not available for this content so a preview has been provided. As you have access to content, full PDF via the ‘Save PDF’ action button.

Язык: Английский

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Regional drivers and characteristics of multi-year droughts

Weather and Climate Extremes, Год журнала: 2025, Номер unknown, С. 100748 - 100748

Опубликована: Фев. 1, 2025

Язык: Английский

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Up-regulation of non-photochemical quenching improves water use efficiency and reduces whole-plant water consumption under drought in Nicotiana tabacum

Journal of Experimental Botany, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 75(13), С. 3959 - 3972

Опубликована: Март 11, 2024

Abstract Water supply limitations will likely impose increasing restrictions on future crop production, underlining a need for crops that use less water per mass of yield. efficiency (WUE) therefore becomes key consideration in developing resilient and productive crops. In this study, we hypothesized it is possible to improve WUE under drought conditions via modulation chloroplast signals stomatal opening by up-regulation non-photochemical quenching (NPQ). Nicotiana tabacum plants with strong overexpression the PsbS gene encoding PHOTOSYSTEM II SUBUNIT S, protein NPQ, were grown differing levels drought. The PsbS-overexpressing lines lost 11% unit CO2 fixed did not have significant effect plant size. Depending growth conditions, consumed from 4–30% at whole-plant level than corresponding wild type. Leaf chlorophyll contents showed positive relation NPQ. This study provides proof concept NPQ can increase WUE, as such an important step towards engineering improved performance

Язык: Английский

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Review article: Drought as a continuum – memory effects in interlinked hydrological, ecological, and social systems

Natural hazards and earth system sciences, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 24(9), С. 3173 - 3205

Опубликована: Сен. 23, 2024

Abstract. Droughts are often long-lasting phenomena, without a distinct start or end and with impacts cascading across sectors systems, creating long-term legacies. Nevertheless, our current perceptions management of droughts their event-based, which can limit the effective assessment drought risks reduction impacts. Here, we advocate for changing this perspective viewing as hydrological–ecological–social continuum. We take systems theory focus on how “memory” causes feedback interactions between parts interconnected at different timescales. first discuss characteristics continuum hydrological, ecological, social separately, then study system systems. Our analysis is based review literature five cases: Chile, Colorado River basin in USA, northeast Brazil, Kenya, Rhine northwest Europe. find that memories past dry wet periods, carried by both bio-physical (e.g. groundwater, vegetation) people, governance), influence future risk manifests. identify four archetypes dynamics: impact recovery, slow resilience building, gradual collapse, high resilience–big shock. The result shifting these types, plays out differently case studies. call more research preconditions recovery dynamics triggering changes, dynamic vulnerability maladaptation. Additionally, continuous monitoring hazards impacts, modelling tools better incorporate adaptation responses, strategies increase societal institutional memory. This will help us to deal complex pathways mitigation.

Язык: Английский

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Review article: Drought as a continuum: memory effects in interlinked hydrological, ecological, and social systems

Опубликована: Фев. 20, 2024

Abstract. Droughts are often long lasting phenomena, without a distinct start or end, and with impacts cascading across sectors systems, creating long-term legacies. Nevertheless, our current perception management of droughts their is event-based, which can limit the effective assessment drought risks reduction impacts. Here, we advocate for changing this perspective viewing as hydro-eco-social continuum. We take systems theory focus on how “memory” causes feedback interactions between parts interconnected at different time scales. first discuss characteristics continuum hydrological, ecological, social separately; then study system systems. Our analysis based review literature five cases: Chile, Colorado River Basin in US, Northeast Brazil, Kenya, Rhine Northwest Europe. find that memories past dry wet periods, carried by both bio-physical (e.g. groundwater, vegetation) people, governance), influence future risk manifests. identify four archetypes dynamics: Impact & recovery; Slow resilience-building; Gradual collapse; High resilience, big shock. The ecological result shifting these types, plays out differently case studies. call more research pre-conditions recovery dynamics triggering changes, dynamic vulnerability maladaptation. Additionally, argue continuous monitoring hazards impacts, modelling tools better incorporate adaptation responses, strategies increase institutional memory to deal complex pathways adaptation.

Язык: Английский

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Current and future risk of unprecedented hydrological droughts in Great Britain

Journal of Hydrology, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 625, С. 130074 - 130074

Опубликована: Авг. 9, 2023

The UK has experienced recurring hydrological droughts in the past and their frequency severity are predicted to increase with climate change. However, quantifying risks of extreme is challenging given short observational record, multivariate nature large internal variability system. We use EC-Earth time-slice ensembles, which consist 2000 years data each for present-day, 2°C 3°C conditions relative pre-industrial, drive models river catchments Great Britain (GB) obtain a set plausible droughts. Since future warming certain, uncertainty drought mainly associated precipitation. Estimates unprecedented extremes show that chance summer month year drier than observed driest (1995) projected (from 9% present-day (PD) 18% warmer world (3C) southeast England). For winter, dry winter (1991-92) slightly decreases 10% - PD 8% 3C England) but does not change significantly warming. add value these probabilistic estimates by sampling physical storylines sequences characterised spring-summers, autumn-winters consecutive winters . Dry spring-summers estimated become primarily driven reduced precipitation summer. may wetter general trend more although triggered moderate autumn-winter deficits worsen higher likelihood being followed Similarly, impacts winters, particular risk slow-responding English lowlands, as intervening hotter drier. These can be used stress-test systems inform decision-making.

Язык: Английский

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Storylines for Global Hydrologic Drought Within CMIP6

Earth s Future, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 12(6)

Опубликована: Июнь 1, 2024

Abstract Future global increases in the duration and severity of hydrologic drought present an emerging challenge for water resource management. However, projected changes to within climate models are often complex, including potentially co‐occurring timing, duration, drought. Here, we apply a storyline approach interpreting projections future identify coherent narratives that include runoff trends, shifts seasonal multi‐year frequency, increased Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6. We develop framework classify storylines (2015–2100) quantify model consensus determine most‐likely “dominant” under four emission scenarios Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) 1–2.6, 2–4.5, 3–7.0, 5–8.5. Under low‐emission scenario (SSPs 1–2.6) approximately one third land‐area is be impacted by dominant minimally detectable trend paired with frequency highest‐emission 5–8.5), most likely increase drought, negative long‐term trends 62% area those same regions. Shifts timing component northern latitudes across all scenarios. These results provide alternative mode interpretation features framed way support regional adaptation strategies mitigate impacts.

Язык: Английский

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Reply on RC1

Опубликована: Янв. 10, 2025

Abstract. The 2021 drought highlighted the vulnerability of Quebec's water resources and potential for widespread consequences in a region that is generally perceived as having abundant water. This study uses storyline approach to explore plausible impacts future conditions an event similar what occurred 2021, but under two different warming scenarios corresponding increases 2 °C 3 global surface temperatures compared preindustrial levels. employs analogues derived from large ensemble regional climate simulations combined with generated by hydrological model offer comprehensive understanding both during, leading up to, these events. allowed enhanced collaboration management experts other stakeholders project possible change on serious deficits Quebec. Results indicate further deterioration river conditions, particularly +3 temperature rise. In hardest-hit areas province scenario, low-water levels persist month longer streamflows drop additional 50 %, thus falling short threshold required maintain health ecosystems extended period time suggesting significant human activities. also highlights need improved systematic data collection during meteorological droughts Quebec, respect their activities ecosystems.

Язык: Английский

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