State-space modelling using wastewater virus and epidemiological data to estimate reported COVID-19 cases and the potential infection numbers
Journal of The Royal Society Interface,
Год журнала:
2025,
Номер
22(222)
Опубликована: Янв. 1, 2025
The
current
situation
of
COVID-19
measures
makes
it
difficult
to
accurately
assess
the
prevalence
SARS-CoV-2
due
a
decrease
in
reporting
rates,
leading
missed
initial
transmission
events
and
subsequent
outbreaks.
There
is
growing
recognition
that
wastewater
virus
data
assist
estimating
potential
infections,
including
asymptomatic
unreported
infections.
Understanding
hidden
behind
reported
cases
critical
for
decision-making
when
choosing
appropriate
social
intervention
measures.
However,
models
implicitly
assume
homogeneity
human
behaviour,
such
as
shedding
patterns
within
population,
making
challenging
predict
emergence
new
variants
variant-specific
or
parameters.
This
can
result
predictions
with
considerable
uncertainty.
In
this
study,
we
established
state-space
model
based
on
viral
load
both
infection
numbers.
Our
using
showed
high
goodness-of-fit
case
numbers
despite
dataset
waves
two
distinct
variants.
Furthermore,
successfully
provided
estimates
infection,
reflecting
superspreading
nature
transmission.
study
supports
notion
surveillance
modelling
have
effectively
Язык: Английский
Urban wastewater-based epidemiology for multi-viral pathogen surveillance in the Valencian region, Spain
Water Research,
Год журнала:
2024,
Номер
255, С. 121463 - 121463
Опубликована: Март 16, 2024
Wastewater-based
epidemiology
(WBE)
has
lately
arised
as
a
promising
tool
for
monitoring
and
tracking
viral
pathogens
in
communities.
In
this
study,
we
analysed
WBE's
role
multi-pathogen
surveillance
strategy
to
detect
the
presence
of
several
illness
causative
agents.
Thus,
an
epidemiological
study
was
conducted
from
October
2021
February
2023
estimate
weekly
levels
Severe
Acute
Respiratory
Syndrome
Coronavirus
2
(SARS-CoV-2),
Syncytial
virus
(RSV),
Influenza
A
(IAV)
influent
wastewater
samples
(n
=
69).
parallel,
one-year
(October
2022)
performed
assess
pathogenic
human
enteric
viruses.
Besides,
proposed
fecal
contamination
indicators
crAssphage
Pepper
mild
mottle
(PMMoV)
also
assessed,
along
with
plaque
counting
somatic
coliphages.
Genetic
material
rotavirus
(RV),
astrovirus
(HAStV),
norovirus
genogroup
I
(GI)
GII
found
almost
all
samples,
while
hepatitis
E
viruses
(HAV
HEV)
only
tested
positive
3.77
%
22.64
respectively.
No
seasonal
patterns
were
overall
viruses,
although
RVs
had
peak
prevalence
winter
months.
All
SARS-CoV-2
RNA,
mean
concentration
5.43
log
genome
copies
per
liter
(log
GC/L).
The
circulating
variants
concern
(VOCs)
by
both
duplex
RT-qPCR
next
generation
sequencing
(NGS).
Both
techniques
reliably
showed
how
dominant
VOC
transitioned
Delta
Omicron
during
two
weeks
Spain
December
2021.
RSV
IAV
peaked
months
concentrations
6.40
4.10
GC/L,
Moreover,
three
selected
respiratory
strongly
correlated
reported
clinical
data
when
normalised
physico-chemical
parameters
presented
weaker
correlations
normalising
sewage
or
coliphages
titers.
Finally,
predictive
models
generated
each
virus,
confirming
high
reliability
on
WBE
early-warning
system
communities
system.
Overall,
presents
optimal
reflecting
circulation
diseases
trends
within
area,
its
value
stands
out
due
public
health
interest.
Язык: Английский
Making waves: Integrating wastewater surveillance with dynamic modeling to track and predict viral outbreaks
Water Research,
Год журнала:
2023,
Номер
243, С. 120372 - 120372
Опубликована: Июль 16, 2023
Язык: Английский
Estimating the effective reproduction number of COVID-19 from population-wide wastewater data: An application in Kagawa, Japan
Infectious Disease Modelling,
Год журнала:
2024,
Номер
9(3), С. 645 - 656
Опубликована: Апрель 3, 2024
Although
epidemiological
surveillance
of
COVID-19
has
been
gradually
downgraded
globally,
the
transmission
continues.
It
is
critical
to
quantify
dynamics
using
multiple
datasets
including
wastewater
virus
concentration
data.
Herein,
we
propose
a
comprehensive
method
for
estimating
effective
reproduction
number
The
data,
which
were
collected
twice
week,
analyzed
daily
incidence
data
obtained
from
Takamatsu,
Japan
between
January
2022
and
September
2022.
We
estimated
shedding
load
distribution
(SLD)
as
function
time
since
date
infection,
model
employing
delay
distribution,
assumed
follow
gamma
multiplied
by
scaling
factor.
also
examined
models
that
accounted
temporal
smoothness
viral
measurement
smoothed
patterns
was
best
fit
(WAIC
=
2795.8),
yielded
mean
SLD
3.46
days
(95%
CrI:
3.01–3.95
days).
Using
this
SLD,
reconstructed
incidence,
enabled
computation
number.
posterior
draws
parameters
directly,
or
prior
subsequent
analyses,
first
used
concentrations
in
wastewater,
well
infection
counts
infection.
In
approach,
incorporated
weekly
reported
case
proxy
reporting.
Both
approaches
estimations
epidemic
curve
twice-weekly
Adding
count
reduced
uncertainty
conclude
are
still
valuable
source
information
inferring
COVID-19,
inferential
performance
enhanced
when
those
combined
with
Язык: Английский
Wastewater Surveillance to Confirm Differences in Influenza A Infection between Michigan, USA, and Ontario, Canada, September 2022–March 2023
Emerging infectious diseases,
Год журнала:
2024,
Номер
30(8)
Опубликована: Июль 30, 2024
Wastewater
surveillance
is
an
effective
way
to
track
the
prevalence
of
infectious
agents
within
a
community
and,
potentially,
spread
pathogens
between
jurisdictions.
We
conducted
retrospective
wastewater
study
2022-23
influenza
season
in
2
communities,
Detroit,
Michigan,
USA,
and
Windsor-Essex,
Ontario,
Canada,
that
form
North
America's
largest
cross-border
conurbation.
observed
positive
relationship
influenza-related
hospitalizations
A
virus
(IAV)
signal
Windsor-Essex
(ρ
=
0.785;
p<0.001)
association
Michigan
IAV
for
Detroit
0.769;
p<0.001).
Time-lagged
cross
correlation
qualitative
examination
monitored
sewersheds
showed
peak
was
delayed
behind
by
3
weeks.
reflects
regional
differences
infection
dynamics
which
may
be
influenced
many
factors,
including
timing
vaccine
administration
Язык: Английский
Watching the guards: A data-driven method to trigger warnings in national wastewater surveillance networks
Journal of Water and Health,
Год журнала:
2024,
Номер
22(7), С. 1209 - 1221
Опубликована: Июнь 12, 2024
ABSTRACT
Surveillance
networks
have
been
established
in
many
countries
worldwide
to
monitor
SARS-CoV-2
sewage
and
estimate
the
communal
prevalence
of
COVID-19
cases.
Despite
their
popularity,
gaining
a
rapid
understanding
how
infectious
diseases
spread
across
territory
covered
by
network
is
difficult
because
factors
involved.
To
improve
detection
warning
signals
within
territory,
we
propose
apply
principal
component
analysis
(PCA)
screen
time-series
data
generated
from
wastewater
treatment
plants
(WWTPs)
under
surveillance.
Our
allows
us
identify
single
WWTPs
deviating
normal
behavior
as
well
deviations
cluster
(indicative
an
intermunicipal
outbreak).
approach
illustrated
through
dataset
Catalan
Network
Sewage
(SARSAIGUA).
Using
10
components,
captured
78.6%
variance
original
51
variables
(WWTPs).
identified
exceedance
Q-statistic
threshold
evidence
anomalous
performance
WWTP,
T2-statistic
sign
outbreak.
provides
comprehensive
picture
pandemic,
enabling
decision-makers
make
informed
decisions
better
manage
future
pandemics.
Язык: Английский
Effect of SARS-CoV-2 shedding rate distribution of individuals during their disease days on the estimation of the number of infected people. Application of wastewater-based epidemiology to the city of Thessaloniki, Greece
The Science of The Total Environment,
Год журнала:
2024,
Номер
951, С. 175724 - 175724
Опубликована: Авг. 23, 2024
During
the
COVID-19
pandemic,
wastewater-based
epidemiology
has
proved
to
be
an
important
tool
for
monitoring
spread
of
a
disease
in
population.
Indeed,
wastewater
surveillance
was
successfully
used
as
complementary
approach
support
public
health
schemes
and
decision-making
policies.
An
essential
feature
estimation
transmission
using
data
is
distribution
viral
shedding
rate
individuals
their
personal
human
wastes
function
days
infection.
Several
candidate
shapes
this
have
been
proposed
literature
SARS-CoV-2.
The
purpose
present
work
explore
examine
significance
on
analyzing
SARS-CoV-2
data.
For
purpose,
simple
model
employed
applying
medical
city
Thessaloniki
during
period
Omicron
variant
domination
2022.
are
normalized
with
respect
total
virus
then
basic
features
investigated.
Detailed
analysis
reveals
that
main
parameter
determining
results
difference
between
day
maximum
infection
reporting.
Since
latter
not
part
shape,
major
affecting
number
infected
people
initial
day.
On
contrary,
duration
(total
days)
well
exact
shape
by
far
less
important.
incorporation
such
models
conventional
epidemiological
-
based
recorded
data-
may
improve
predictions
outbreaks.
Язык: Английский
Under-Reporting of SARS-CoV-2 Infections in 27 Countries, 2020–2022
Опубликована: Янв. 1, 2024
Язык: Английский
Wastewater-based effective reproduction number and prediction under the absence of shedding information
Environment International,
Год журнала:
2024,
Номер
194, С. 109128 - 109128
Опубликована: Ноя. 14, 2024
Estimating
effective
reproduction
number
(R
Язык: Английский
Machine learning mathematical models for incidence estimation during pandemics
PLoS Computational Biology,
Год журнала:
2024,
Номер
20(12), С. e1012687 - e1012687
Опубликована: Дек. 23, 2024
Accurate
estimates
of
the
incidence
infectious
diseases
are
key
for
control
epidemics.
However,
healthcare
systems
often
unable
to
test
population
exhaustively,
especially
when
asymptomatic
and
paucisymptomatic
cases
widespread;
this
leads
significant
systematic
under-reporting
real
incidence.
Here,
we
propose
a
machine
learning
approach
estimate
pandemic
in
real-time,
using
reported
overall
rate.
In
particular,
use
Bayesian
symbolic
regression
automatically
learn
closed-form
mathematical
models
that
most
parsimoniously
describe
We
develop
validate
our
COVID-19
values
nine
different
countries,
confirming
their
ability
accurately
predict
daily
Remarkably,
despite
differences
epidemic
trajectories
dynamics
across
find
single
model
all
countries
offers
more
parsimonious
description
is
predictive
actual
compared
separate
each
country.
Our
results
show
potential
real-time
models,
providing
valuable
tool
public
health
decision-makers.
Язык: Английский