Coastal Engineering, Год журнала: 2025, Номер unknown, С. 104739 - 104739
Опубликована: Март 1, 2025
Язык: Английский
Coastal Engineering, Год журнала: 2025, Номер unknown, С. 104700 - 104700
Опубликована: Янв. 1, 2025
Язык: Английский
Процитировано
5
Natural Hazards, Год журнала: 2025, Номер unknown
Опубликована: Фев. 8, 2025
Язык: Английский
Процитировано
2
Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 129(1)
Опубликована: Янв. 1, 2024
Abstract Flood characteristics caused by extreme sea level (ESL) events depend largely on the magnitude of peak water levels (WLs) and their temporal evolution. However, coastal flood risk is generally assessed based only a limited number potential WLs selection past or design hydrograph. We address this gap systematically estimate (a) spatial annual (b) event‐based probabilities comprehensively accounting for both wide range ESLs evolution, herein referred to as hydrograph intensity. simulate flooding at German Baltic Sea coast with hydrodynamic model Delft3D. produce probabilistic maps, which detail exposed areas together probability flooding. Additionally, we show how extent changes, when upper, median, lower quantiles intensities. Our results demonstrate that relevance intensity site ESL dependent. While extents some upper bounds indicate no differences, others differ up 45%. Further, consider two (2.24 2.55 m) 100 intensities each. Compared quantiles, in 60% difference. Hence, find do not cover full addressing uncertainty due variability. We, therefore, recommend addition using future assessments.
Язык: Английский
Процитировано
10
Risk Analysis, Год журнала: 2025, Номер unknown
Опубликована: Янв. 18, 2025
Abstract Flood models, while representing our best knowledge of a natural phenomenon, are continually evolving. Their predictions, albeit undeniably important for flood risk management, contain considerable uncertainties related to model structure, parameterization, and input data. With multiple sources predictions becoming increasingly available through online maps, the in these present risks property devaluation. Such stem from real estate decisions, measured by location preferences willingness‐to‐pay buy rent properties, based on access various predictions. Here, we evaluate influence coastal decision‐making United Kingdom adopting an interdisciplinary approach, involving modeling, novel experimental surveys UK residents response statistical geospatial analysis. Our main findings show that dominates decisions relative aesthetics, reflecting shift demand toward averse locations. We also find people do not consider prediction uncertainty their possibly due inability perceive such uncertainty. These results robust under repeated survey using open long‐term map. We, therefore, recommend getting models “right” but recognize this is contentious issue because it implies having error‐free model, which practically impossible. Hence, reduce risks, advocate greater emphasis effectively communicating non‐experts.
Язык: Английский
Процитировано
1
Water Research, Год журнала: 2025, Номер unknown, С. 123215 - 123215
Опубликована: Янв. 1, 2025
Язык: Английский
Процитировано
1
Natural hazards and earth system sciences, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 25(2), С. 747 - 816
Опубликована: Фев. 20, 2025
Abstract. Compound flooding, where the combination or successive occurrence of two more flood drivers leads to a greater impact, can exacerbate adverse consequences particularly in coastal–estuarine regions. This paper reviews practices and trends compound research synthesizes regional global findings. A systematic review is employed construct literature database 279 studies relevant flooding context. explores types events their mechanistic processes, it terminology throughout literature. Considered are six (fluvial, pluvial, coastal, groundwater, damming/dam failure, tsunami) five precursor environmental conditions (soil moisture, snow, temp/heat, fire, drought). Furthermore, this summarizes methodology study application trends, as well considers influences climate change urban environments. Finally, highlights knowledge gaps discusses implications on future practices. Our recommendations for (1) adopt consistent approaches, (2) expand geographic coverage research, (3) pursue inter-comparison projects, (4) develop modelling frameworks that better couple dynamic Earth systems, (5) design coastal infrastructure with compounding mind.
Язык: Английский
Процитировано
1
Cambridge Prisms Coastal Futures, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 2
Опубликована: Янв. 1, 2024
Abstract Climate change has been recognised as a major concern in coastal hotspots exposed to multiple climate hazards under regionally specific characteristics of vulnerability. We review the emerging research and current trends academic literature on risk adaptation from human security perspective. The ecological socioeconomic developments are analysed for key areas, including infrastructure; water, food fisheries; health; mobility; conflict, taking different geographical contexts areas islands, megacities deltas into consideration. Compounding cascading interactions require integrative policy approaches address growing complexity. Governance mechanisms focus management adaptation, nature-based solutions community-based considering their synergies trade-offs. This perspective allows holistic view risks vicious circles societal instability systems interconnectedness dimensions necessary sustainable transformative most affected hotspots.
Язык: Английский
Процитировано
7
Cambridge Prisms Coastal Futures, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 1
Опубликована: Янв. 1, 2023
Abstract Although coasts are frequently seen as at the frontline of near-future environmental risk, there is more to understanding future coastal environments than a simple interaction between increasing hazards (particularly related global sea level rise) and exposure vulnerability populations. The environment both multi-hazard regionally differentiated, populations, in what should be coupled social–ecological–physical system, affected by, themselves modify, impact dynamics. As dance human decisions change unfolds over coming decades, transdisciplinary approaches will required come better on identifying following sustainable management pathways, including promotion innovative restoration activities. Inputs from indigenous knowledge systems local communities particularly important these stakeholders crucial actors implementation ecosystem-based mitigation adaptation strategies.
Язык: Английский
Процитировано
13
Sustainability, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 16(2), С. 609 - 609
Опубликована: Янв. 10, 2024
This research evaluates the coastal vulnerability of Shanghai, effectiveness existing natural habitats in reducing that vulnerability, and, finally, provides recommendations to improve resilience areas. Shanghai is an important economic center home a large population. However, combination ground subsidence, rising sea levels, and more frequent flooding due tropical cyclones poses escalating climate risks for demanding urgent mitigation measures. The InVEST Coastal Vulnerability Model was used this study assess Shanghai’s under current situation various scenarios simulated absence habitats. assessment results were analyzed through comparison between different spatial aggregation analysis. pinpointed highly vulnerable areas, primarily located on east coast Chongming Island, northeast coasts Hengsha mainland Shanghai. These areas need be prioritized intervention. Also, it demonstrated with green spaces salt marshes playing greater role compared small spaces. first applying demonstrating model’s potential providing valuable information regarding protection against impacts change Insights from findings are useful crafting sustainable land-use policies plans
Язык: Английский
Процитировано
5
Journal of Hazardous Materials, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 487, С. 137238 - 137238
Опубликована: Янв. 15, 2025
Язык: Английский
Процитировано
0