Integrating urban water fluxes and moving beyond impervious surface cover: A review

Journal of Hydrology, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 618, С. 129188 - 129188

Опубликована: Янв. 31, 2023

Язык: Английский

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Rapidly evolving aerosol emissions are a dangerous omission from near-term climate risk assessments

Environmental Research Climate, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 2(3), С. 032001 - 032001

Опубликована: Июнь 6, 2023

Abstract Anthropogenic aerosol emissions are expected to change rapidly over the coming decades, driving strong, spatially complex trends in temperature, hydroclimate, and extreme events both near far from emission sources. Under-resourced, highly populated regions often bear brunt of aerosols’ climate air quality effects, amplifying risk through heightened exposure vulnerability. However, many policy-facing evaluations near-term risk, including those latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment report, underrepresent regionally diverse reducing them a globally averaged offset greenhouse gas warming. We argue that this constitutes major missing element society’s ability prepare for future change. outline pathway towards progress call greater interaction between research, impact modeling, scenario development, communities.

Язык: Английский

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Convection-permitting climate models offer more certain extreme rainfall projections

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 7(1)

Опубликована: Фев. 28, 2024

Abstract Extreme precipitation events lead to dramatic impacts on society and the situation will worsen under climate change. Decision-makers need reliable estimates of future changes as a basis for effective adaptation strategies, but projections at local scale from regional models (RCMs) are highly uncertain. Here we exploit km-scale convection-permitting multi-model (CPM) ensemble, generated within FPS Convection project, provide new understanding in extremes related uncertainties over greater Alpine region. The CPM ensemble shows stronger increase fractional contribution extreme than driving RCM during summer, when convection dominates. We find that substantially reduces model their total by more 50%. conclude realistic representation dynamical processes CPMs provides change, which essential policymakers plan measures.

Язык: Английский

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Predicting changes in agricultural yields under climate change scenarios and their implications for global food security

Scientific Reports, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 15(1)

Опубликована: Янв. 22, 2025

Язык: Английский

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Multi-model projections of precipitation extremes in Southeast Asia based on CORDEX-Southeast Asia simulations

Environmental Research, Год журнала: 2020, Номер 184, С. 109350 - 109350

Опубликована: Март 9, 2020

Язык: Английский

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COSMO-CLM regional climate simulations in the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) framework: a review

Geoscientific model development, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 14(8), С. 5125 - 5154

Опубликована: Авг. 17, 2021

Abstract. In the last decade, Climate Limited-area Modeling Community (CLM-Community) has contributed to Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) with an extensive set of regional climate simulations. Using several versions COSMO-CLM-Community model, ERA-Interim reanalysis and eight global models from phase 5 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) were dynamically downscaled horizontal grid spacings 0.44∘ (∼ 50 km), 0.22∘ 25 0.11∘ 12 km) over CORDEX domains Europe, South Asia, East Australasia, Africa. This major effort resulted in 80 simulations publicly available through Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) web portals for use impact studies scenario assessments. Here we review production these assess their results terms mean near-surface temperature precipitation aid future design COSMO-CLM model It is found that a domain-specific parameter tuning beneficial, while increasing resolution (from or km spacing) alone does not always improve performance simulation. Moreover, depends on driving data. generally more important than dependence resolution, version, configuration. Our emphasize importance performing projections coordinated way, where guidance both (GCM) (RCM) modeling communities needed increase reliability GCM–RCM chain.

Язык: Английский

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d4PDF: large-ensemble and high-resolution climate simulations for global warming risk assessment

Progress in Earth and Planetary Science, Год журнала: 2020, Номер 7(1)

Опубликована: Окт. 7, 2020

Abstract A large-ensemble climate simulation database, which is known as the database for policy decision-making future changes (d4PDF), was designed change risk assessments. Since completion of first set simulations in 2015, has been growing continuously. It contains results ensemble conducted over a total thousands years respectively past and climates using high-resolution global (60 km horizontal mesh) regional (20 atmospheric models. Several sets are available, mean surface air temperatures forced to be higher by 4 K, 2 1.5 K relative preindustrial levels. Nonwarming incorporated d4PDF along with simulations. The data volume approximately petabytes. models satisfactorily simulate terms climatology, natural variations, extreme events such heavy precipitation tropical cyclones. In addition, users can obtain statistically significant states or weather extremes interest between via simple arithmetic computation without any statistical assumptions. helpful understanding attributing warming. Impact assessment studies have concurrently performed various research areas hazard, hydrology, civil engineering, agriculture, health, insurance. now become essential promoting devising adaptation policies. Moreover, it helped establishing an interdisciplinary community on warming across Japan.

Язык: Английский

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Methodology of the Constraint Condition in Dynamical Downscaling for Regional Climate Evaluation: A Review

Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, Год журнала: 2020, Номер 125(11)

Опубликована: Апрель 22, 2020

Abstract The dynamical downscaling method with a regional climate model (RCM) is widely used to assess the spatially detailed information about climate. However, RCM result considerably influenced by systematic errors inherent general circulation (GCM), which provides initial and boundary conditions RCM. Such sometimes lead meaningless downscaled results. Many modified (MBDDS) methods have been proposed reduce influences of GCM extract meaningful signals for change. This study comprehensively reviews MBDDS methods. partially modify projected use them as an objectives are organized into two main objectives, that is, obtain more reliable projections correcting biases in better understand change mechanisms. To ensure comprehensive understanding methods, this attempts interpret included results using mathematical expressions, separating GCM‐originated bias RCM's own bias. Using analysis, classified based on following questions: What effect expected from correction? Which components considered when assessing future change? direction issues need be addressed also discussed.

Язык: Английский

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Modelling Mediterranean heavy precipitation events at climate scale: an object-oriented evaluation of the CNRM-AROME convection-permitting regional climate model

Climate Dynamics, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 56(5-6), С. 1717 - 1752

Опубликована: Янв. 11, 2021

Abstract Modelling the rare but high-impact Mediterranean Heavy Precipitation Events (HPEs) at climate scale remains a largely open scientific challenge. The issue is adressed here by running 38-year-long continuous simulation of CNRM-AROME Convection-Permitting Regional Climate Model (CP-RCM) 2.5 km horizontal resolution and over large pan-Alpine domain. First, evaluated through basic Eulerian statistical approach via comparison with selected high spatial temporal observational datasets. Northwestern fall extreme precipitation correctly represented daily even better an hourly scale, in terms location, intensity, frequency interannual variability, despite underestimation highest intensities above 200 mm/day 40 mm/h, respectively. A CP-RCM its forcing convection-parameterised 12.5 (RCM) demonstrates clear added value for CP-RCM, confirming previous studies. Secondly, object-oriented Lagrangian proposed implementation precipitating system detection tracking algorithm, applied to model reference COMEPHORE dataset twenty seasons. Using French HPEs as objects, CNRM-AROME’s ability represent main characteristics convective systems tracks highlighted number, area, duration, velocity severity. Further, able simulate long-lasting severe events similar observations. However, it fails reproduce (maximum mm/h) well, model’s tendency overestimate cell size increases intensity.

Язык: Английский

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A novel selection method of CMIP6 GCMs for robust climate projection

International Journal of Climatology, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 42(8), С. 4258 - 4272

Опубликована: Ноя. 19, 2021

Abstract The selection of global climate models (GCMs) is a major challenge for reliable projection climate. A novel method introduced in this study to select couple model intercomparison project phase 6 (CMIP6) GCMs. Climatology maps GCM simulated precipitation, maximum temperature and minimum data were rasterized form 8‐bit grey scale images, which subsequently merged colour image. GCMs' climatology images compared with the image prepared using gridded their performance assessment. This allowed an unbiased comparison GCMs according ability reconstruct three variables' climatology. proposed was employed CMIP6 selections Egypt different shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios. recognized four suitable projections Egypt, ACCESS‐CM2, AWI‐CM‐1‐1‐MR, BCC‐CSM2‐MR MRI‐ESM2‐0. selected models' biases simulating precipitation showed consistent results, underestimating north overestimating south rainfall. However, considerable inconsistency. Overall, results indicated possible decrease annual winter range 0 −50% high rainfall regions large increase low (~5 mm) region south. zone gradual expansion SSPs time. higher south, particularly southeast (>6°C far future) least northern coastal zone.

Язык: Английский

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