Perspectives on the Future of Land Surface Models and the Challenges of Representing Complex Terrestrial Systems

Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Год журнала: 2020, Номер 12(4)

Опубликована: Март 11, 2020

Abstract Land surface models (LSMs) are a vital tool for understanding, projecting, and predicting the dynamics of land its role within Earth system, under global change. Driven by need to address set key questions, LSMs have grown in complexity from simplified representations biophysics encompass broad interrelated processes spanning disciplines biophysics, biogeochemistry, hydrology, ecosystem ecology, community human management, societal impacts. This vast scope complexity, while warranted problems designed solve, has led enormous challenges understanding attributing differences between LSM predictions. Meanwhile, wide range spatial scales that govern heterogeneity, spectrum timescales dynamics, create tractably representing LSMs. We identify three “grand challenges” development use LSMs, based around these issues: managing process parametric across asked changing world. In this review, we discuss progress been made, as well promising directions forward, each challenges.

Язык: Английский

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A low-to-no snow future and its impacts on water resources in the western United States

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 2(11), С. 800 - 819

Опубликована: Окт. 26, 2021

Язык: Английский

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More green and less blue water in the Alps during warmer summers

Nature Climate Change, Год журнала: 2020, Номер 10(2), С. 155 - 161

Опубликована: Янв. 27, 2020

Язык: Английский

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Topographic Wetness Index calculation guidelines based on measured soil moisture and plant species composition

The Science of The Total Environment, Год журнала: 2020, Номер 757, С. 143785 - 143785

Опубликована: Ноя. 14, 2020

Язык: Английский

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Widespread woody plant use of water stored in bedrock

Nature, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 597(7875), С. 225 - 229

Опубликована: Сен. 8, 2021

Язык: Английский

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Global Groundwater Modeling and Monitoring: Opportunities and Challenges

Water Resources Research, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 57(12)

Опубликована: Дек. 1, 2021

Abstract Groundwater is by far the largest unfrozen freshwater resource on planet. It plays a critical role as bottom of hydrologic cycle, redistributing water in subsurface and supporting plants surface bodies. However, groundwater has historically been excluded or greatly simplified global models. In recent years, there an international push to develop scale modeling analysis. This progress provided some first steps. Still, much additional work will be needed achieve consistent framework that interacts seamlessly with observational datasets other earth system circulation Here we outline vision for platform monitoring prediction identify key technological data challenges are currently limiting progress. Any this type must interdisciplinary cannot achieved community isolation. Therefore, also provide high‐level overview system, approaches current state representations, such readers all backgrounds can engage challenge.

Язык: Английский

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Differentiable modelling to unify machine learning and physical models for geosciences

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 4(8), С. 552 - 567

Опубликована: Июль 11, 2023

Язык: Английский

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Illuminating water cycle modifications and Earth system resilience in the Anthropocene

Water Resources Research, Год журнала: 2020, Номер 56(4)

Опубликована: Янв. 4, 2020

Abstract Fresh water—the bloodstream of the biosphere—is at center planetary drama Anthropocene. Water fluxes and stores regulate Earth's climate are essential for thriving aquatic terrestrial ecosystems, as well water, food, energy security. But water cycle is also being modified by humans an unprecedented scale rate. A holistic understanding freshwater's role Earth system resilience detection monitoring anthropogenic modifications across scales urgent, yet existing methods frameworks not suited this. In this paper we highlight four core functions (hydroclimatic regulation, hydroecological storage, transport) key related processes. Building on systems theory, review evidence regional‐scale regime shifts disruptions water. We then propose a framework detecting, monitoring, establishing safe limits to identify possible spatially explicit their quantification. sum, presents ambitious scientific policy grand challenge that could substantially improve our in cross‐scale management would be complementary approach tools.

Язык: Английский

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Benchmarking and parameter sensitivity of physiological and vegetation dynamics using the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES) at Barro Colorado Island, Panama

Biogeosciences, Год журнала: 2020, Номер 17(11), С. 3017 - 3044

Опубликована: Июнь 15, 2020

Abstract. Plant functional traits determine vegetation responses to environmental variation, but variation in trait values is large, even within a single site. Likewise, uncertainty how these map Earth system feedbacks large. We use demographic model (VDM), the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES), explore parameter sensitivity of predictions, and comparison observations, at tropical forest site: Barro Colorado Island Panama. define 12-dimensional distribution plant derived primarily from observations Panama, types (PFTs) as random draws this distribution. compare several ensembles, where individual ensemble members vary only that PFTs, separate ensembles differ each other based on either structural assumptions or non-trait, ecosystem-level parameters, which include (a) number competing PFTs present any simulation (b) parameters govern disturbance height-based light competition. While single-PFT simulations are roughly consistent with productivity Island, increasing strongly shifts predictions towards higher biomass forests. Different ecosystem variables show greater than others most dominated by large trees, such biomass, being sensitive. Changing height-sorting i.e., rules competitive filtering, regimes dominance coexistence between early- late-successional model. Increases extent severity disturbance, degree determinism competition, all act shift community early-successional PFTs. In turn, outcomes alter states fluxes, more early-successional-dominated forests having lower biomass. It thus crucial differentiate traits, under pressure VDMs, those not better understand relationships two quantify sources VDMs.

Язык: Английский

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Toward catchment hydro‐biogeochemical theories

Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Water, Год журнала: 2020, Номер 8(1)

Опубликована: Дек. 3, 2020

Abstract Headwater catchments are the fundamental units that connect land to ocean. Hydrological flow and biogeochemical processes intricately coupled, yet their respective sciences have progressed without much integration. Reaction kinetic theories prescribe rate dependence on environmental variables (e.g., temperature water content) advanced substantially, mostly in well‐mixed reactors, columns, warming experiments considering characteristics of hydrological at catchment scale. These shown significant divergence from observations natural systems. On other hand, theories, including transit time theory, substantially not been incorporated into understanding reactions Here we advocate for development integrated hydro‐biogeochemical across gradients climate, vegetation, geology conditions. The lack such presents barriers mechanisms forecasting future Critical Zone under human‐ climate‐induced perturbations. Although integration has started co‐located measurements well way, tremendous challenges remain. In particular, even this era “big data,” still limited by data will need (1) intensify beyond river channels characterize vertical connectivity broadly shallow deep subsurface; (2) expand older dating scales reflected stable isotopes; (3) combine use reactive solutes, nonreactive tracers, (4) augment environments undergoing rapid changes. To develop it is essential engage models all stages model‐informed collection strategies maximize usage; adopt a “simple but simplistic,” or fit‐for‐purpose approach include process‐based models; blend data‐driven framework “theory‐guided science.” Within hypothesis testing, model‐data fusion can advance mechanistically link catchments' internal structures external drivers functioning. It only field hydro‐biogeochemistry, also enable hind‐ fore‐casting serve society large. Broadly, education cultivate thinkers intersections traditional disciplines with hollistic approaches interacting complex earth This article categorized under: Engineering Water > Methods

Язык: Английский

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